The Washington Post’s Chico Harlan reports:

“By Monday, at midnight, the Nationals will know: Either they'll have signed the most heralded pitching prospect to the richest contract in amateur history, or they'll have to explain why the deal didn't happen... But in the meantime, the Nationals, according to industry observers familiar with Scott Boras negotiations, are stuck in a holding pattern. The countdown clock ticks away, but the real action must wait. Executives who have dealt with Boras in the past say he strategically holds off all serious negotiating until the 11th hour. "That's his strategy," one executive said. "He's got his timetable. That's his M.O."

As devious as Boras’s plan may be, it's brilliant. The Nationals will be pinned in a position late Monday night where they will either have to match Strasburgs demands or let him walk, there simply wont be enough time for negotiation.

Some have speculated it may be wise for the Nationals to publicize a generous offer to the top overall pick. This would at the least save their ass publically, showing that they did more than enough to try and sign the elite prospect. At best it would put public pressure on Boras and Strasburg to be reasonable in their demands.

Although, Scott Boras has never been considered anything near reasonable. 

The Washington Nationals box score tonight was nothing out of the ordinary.

The Nationals had a lot of hits, left a lot of runners on, and quite frankly the team got outscored. Unfortunately another eye-sore which I have seen pop-up all to often in the Nats box score showed up yet again today as Nyjer Morgan got caught stealing for the seventeenth time this season (6^th as a National).

The Nationals have had relatively successful offensive output in some categories this season. They are fifth in the majors in on base percentage (.348), and they are tied for sixth in the league in batting average (.268). Yet the Nationals are only 18^th in runs, and 30^th in wins.

It is clear that the Nationals have been unable to turn their base runners into runs scored and wins.

In fact, the Nationals are arguably the leagues most underperforming team in the standings. The Nationals have a -7.1 Pythagorean O/U, and that’s after an 8 game winning streak. That means that according to the Baseball Pythagorean Theorem the Nats should have seven more wins than they have now based on the runs they have scored and the runs they have allowed. To put that in perspective, the team with the second worst Pyth O/U are the Blue Jays, almost 2 wins below us at -5.6. Only three teams have a -5 Pyth O/U, and none have a -4. To put it simply, the Nats are in a class of their own.

That number might be even higher however if the Nationals just scored runs at the rate they get on base.

This brings me back to the box score.

The Nationals have been caught stealing 32 times this season. That number is good for eighth most in the league, however every team that has more runners caught stealing than the Nationals have significantly more successful steals than the Nats. This is the case for the Tampa Rays, who have 156 steals to 37 failed attempts, and the L.A. Angels who have 114 steals to 44 failed attempts. The Nationals only have 56 stolen bases.

That number 56 is 24^th in the league, and their stolen base percentage is second to last at 63.4 percent. The Cubs, the only team with a worse stolen base percentage, have a 63.1 mark, but they have 23 less attempts.

Those stolen base numbers get even worse when you realize that Nyjer Morgan has considerably raised them in the 36 games he’s been a National. Without Morgan’s 20 steals to six failed attempts, the Nationals would have 36 stolen bases to 25 times caught stealing. That’s an abysmal 59 percent.

That success rate is abnormally high for Morgan as well. In his career before Washington he only stole bases at a 63 percent success rate, as opposed to the 77 percnet rate he has stolen with the Nationals during a hot streak that has seen him bat 63 points above his career average as well.
  

Sabermatricians have long claimed the stolen base and other small ball tactics aren’t efficient means of scoring runs, and that teams that rely on them will never be successful. Essentially they’ve argued that an unsuccessful steal is more discouraging to scoring a run than a successful steal is to promote it.

Essentially, stealing bases help, but getting caught stealing is way worse.

Bill James (the man who invented Sabermetrics) went as far to say in his 1983 Baseball Abstract, “Nobody ever has (won a pennant by stealing bases), nobody ever will. It cannot be done. It is an argument that cannot be won, a position that cannot be defended.”

He made this argument after looking back at teams from 1969 to the date of the books publication and compared them head to head. Teams that had a better slugging percentage vs. teams that had more stolen bases won time after time. He also found that teams finishing higher in steals had an average worse finish than teams finishing higher in any other major offensive category.

These findings of course weren’t necessarily because steals hurt he ball club, but teams that steal many bases, attempt to steal many bases, and therefor get caught more often, stripping them chances to earn a run.

A perfect example of this phenomenon is Rickey Henderson. Baseball Prospectus took a look at the career of the all time leading base stealer in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, and found that the stolen base king’s steal total did not significantly contribute more wins for his team than any other player in history. This is because the base stealer also holds the record for most times caught stealing.

It seems then that the Nationals are doing themselves a disservice by attempting to swipe so many bags, especially if they are not being successful. The club is built to be successful based on major sabermetric principles. They have a strong on base percentage as a club (.348) , and they have players who can slug for power in Willingham (1.009 OPS), Zimmerman (.906 OPS), and Dunn (.975). 

To preview the coming series against the Cincinnati Reds, The Nats Blog sat down with the top Reds blog on the net, Red Reporter, to get their views on the club, the series, and the future.

The Nats Blog: What were you expectations coming into 2009? It seems like the Reds put together a solid foundation for a team, but injuries and under performances damned the team.

Red Reporter: If I'm being honest, my peak expectation was for a .500 season.  I knew before the season started that the Reds didn't have enough offense to be serious contenders, though I didn't expect their offense to be as bad as it has been.  I felt like the pitching and defense would be improved enough to make up for some of the loss on offense, but right out of the gate it was a season where a lot of things had to go perfect for the Reds to have a good year.  Obviously the injuries have made it hard for those perfect scenarios to happen, but to the truth of the matter is that the Reds did not have enough talent coming into this season to expect to be competitive. 

TNB: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are exciting young players, what do you think about their respective futures and what types of players they will become?

Red Reporter: I think both of them have All Star potential.  Votto was brought along a lot more deliberately than Bruce, and he'll be 26 next month, but I think he's already showing that potential in the big leagues.  He's struggled over the last week, but there's not much to not like about what he's done in his 2 years as a major leaguer.  Bruce is still just 22 and he has some work to do to improve.  He's got power and quick wrists, but he beats himself a lot at the plate by swinging at pitches that he can't handle and consistently trying to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate.  The big concern for him right now is how he recovers from the broken wrist that he suffered in July.  Austin Kearns was never the same hitter after he broke his wrist, and there is quietly some fear that Bruce might suffer similar long-term effects.

TNB: Jim Bowden came to us after a stint with the Cincinatti Reds, and by the end of his tenure had brought over nearly the entire former team. Just look at the players on the 2003 Reds that later ended up in the Nationals Organization; D’angelo Jimenez, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Boone, Adam Dunn, Jose Guillen, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Barry Larkin and Bob Boone. In your experience, how was life with the Bowden, and life after the Bowden?

Red Reporter: Jim Bowden was a jerk to pretty much every person that crossed his path, but at least when he was with the Reds he managed to field a competitive team on a regular basis.  He had way too much of an infatuation with toolsy outfielders that rarely amounted into anything, but he was creative with how to fix the spots that the team needed and he was willing to take risks.  One thing is for sure, he gave us fans something to talk about.

Life since Bowden left has been pathetic, but not because Bowden is gone.  When he left, the farm system was in shambles (partly because of Marge Schott as well), so they've been rebuilding for the last 5 years with only some small progress made on the organization as a whole.  The 4 GMs we've had since Bowden (there's an indicator of a problem if I've ever seen one), have done everything they can to dismantle and clean up his mess.  As far as I can tell, the only players left in the organization from Bowden's time are Joey Votto, who was drafted by Bowden in 2002, Ryan Hanigan, who was signed in 2002, and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted in 2003 just before Bowden was fired.  Unfortunately, undoing what Bowden did wasn't the only solution for success.  This season will mark the 9th straight losing season for the Reds, and frankly optimism for 2010 is waining.

TNB: Do Reds fans regret the Josh Hamilton trade? Or in general are they happy with Volquez?

Red Reporter: It depends on who you ask.  I would say the fanbase is fairly evenly split on the deal.  Hamilton captured the imagination of a lot of fans when he was with the Reds, and many of those fans were very upset when he was dealt.  Volquez won over a bunch of them with his All Star first half last year, but some fans also wonder what might have been if Hamilton had stayed with the Reds.  At this point, I don't think either side is particularly excited about what has happened to both players.  Then again, the best performance so far this year from a player in the deal might be by reliever Daniel Ray Herrera who has posted a 2.53 ERA in 50 outings predominately as a LOOGY for the Reds.  Not bad for a 5'6" junkballer who was a throw-in on the deal.

TNB: What pieces do the Reds have to add to be in a position to compete next year?

Red Reporter: If they want to be competitive next year, the need serious upgrades at SS and CF, plus they probably need a good right-handed power bat.  Scott Rolen could provide that bat for them if he stays healthy, but it wouldn't hurt if they could add an insurance bat for LF.  Also, they'll need to continue to the development of some of their youngsters like Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto.

TNB: What do the Reds have to do to be successful in the coming series?

Red Reporter: Get an early lead.  The Reds are just 5-34 when trailing after the first inning and they have only 19 come from behind wins this season. If the lead is not possible, then probably the most important thing is to keep the Nats of the board as much as possible.  The offense has been "hot" of late, batting .235/.309/.324 and scoring 4.6 R/G over their last 5 games.  This isn't a team that is very adept as scoring runs when they need to.

The Nationals second draft pick (11^th overall) of 2009, Drew Storen, got promoted from the Potomac Nationals to Harrisburg Senators Tuesday night.

Storen recorded a perfect shutout inning for the Senators last night, retiring the side and earning the save.

Storen, as expected, has risen through the ranks of the Nationals minor league system quickly. He has used excellent control and good movement on his pitches to keep bats off balls, and runners off bases.

The most impressive number for Storen has been his 37/2 strikeout to walk ratio.
 

Kendall Rogers of Yahoo! Sports said today in his article, “Several Unsigned players still on table,” that nine first-round picks, including Stephen Strasburg have yet to sign:

“San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg was the first pick of the MLB draft and has yet to sign. However, all indications point to the stud right-hander either signing a pro contract or pulling an Aaron Crow and heading to the Independent League to prepare for another draft next summer….”

“Prediction: Strasburg reportedly is asking for one of the largest signing bonuses in professional history, but if he signs, there’s a good chance he’ll agree to much less than his original demands….For now, I’ll say Strasburg signs by the deadline.”

While Rogers doesn’t really say what basis he has for his prediction, it is reasonable. I would assume that not even Boras expected to get 50 million dollars for Strasburg, just as he probably didn’t expect Manny to get the contract he was demanding this summer either. If you set the bar really high however, then the club will be forced to meet you somewhere in the middle. That middle number may be what Boras was actually expecting when demanding the outrageous first number.

I really expect the Nationals to sign Strasburg. 

The Nationals came back down to earth Tuesday night as they lost their first game in their last nine contests, falling to the Braves 8-1.

John Lannan has seen better outings. The lefty only survived 4.2 innings while giving up six runs on six hits. The usually in control Lannan allowed four walks to only one strikeout.

The Nats starter earned his 9^th loss of the season.

During the clubs eight game win streak there was a clear recommitment to defense. In fact as Chico Harlan pointed out recently, the Nationals turnaround in the  standings can be traced to their turn around in defensive consistency.

The errors, however, returned tonight. Both Cristian Guzman and Josh Willingham made errors with their gloves and the Nats as a result allowed two unearned runs.

Those two unearned runs however, do not account for all eight of the Braves scores. The Atlanta club recorded 10 hits, with all eight position players contributing to that total.

Ryan Church contributed two hits and two runs for the Braves while reaching base four times. Chipper Jones also added two hits and two runs, as well as chipping in with his 15^th home run of the year. 

The Washington Nationals (40-72) will head down south for a two game series against the Atlanta Braves (58-52) this week.

Both the Nationals and the Braves are surging but towards very different destinies. The Nationals, who have won eight games in a row, and 12 of their last 16, have turned around what had potential to be one of the worst seasons in MLB history into one of the leagues hottest Augusts. The Braves on the other hand, who have won 15 of their last 23, are trying to claw their way into a wide open race for the National League East division lead.

The Braves are coming off a road trip where they captured five wins, suffered two losses, and took three of four from top team in the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers (68-45). With this streak, they are only 4.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies  (61-48) 

During their road trip, the hottest hitter for the Braves was former Washington National Ryan Church. Church batted .389 in that stretch, with five runs, three extra-base hits and five runs batted in.

Church has had a tumultuous journey since being traded from the Nationals after the 2007 season. Church saw two half seasons with the Mets that were marred by bizarre injury after bizarre injury, until he was finally traded to the Braves this season.

Atlanta has risen back to contention in the NL East this summer on the backs of the same group of people who carried them their year after year in the 1990’s, their pitching staff.

The club currently ranks third in the National League in Pitcher VORP, third in the majors in team ERA, and seventh in strikeouts. In the last month however, the club ranks first in the majors in ERA.

Once again the clubs pitching staff is anchored by its starting rotation, which features three aces.

• Javier Vazquez-10-7, 2.90 ERA, 171/32 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP
  
• Jair Jurrjens- 9-8, 3.01 ERA, 103/53 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP
  
• Tommy Hanson- 6-2, 3.22 ERA, 46/29 K/BB, 1.33 WHIP
  

Vazquez is an established veteran who started his career with Montreal. Jurrjens is 23-year-old up and comer who already has a full year of experience under his belt. Tommy Hanson is a rookie prospect who is making a strong case for rookie of the year.

The Braves rotation is filled out by off-season signing Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.15) and foreign import Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.12). That gives them 5 starters with an ERA below 4.15.

The Nationals will try to earn their ninth win in a row tonight, as the clubs ace, John Lannan, will face up against Tommy Hanson. Lannan admitted to not having his best stuff in his last start, although he earned his 15^th quality start of the season. Lannan pitched six innings and gave up two runs against the Marlins.

Hanson on the other hand has come on strong in August with a six inning performance against the Padres where he allowed only two runs on five hits.

A look at the success of the Nationals 2009 Draft, picks 2-34 (DC PRO)

Chico Harlan points to the day it turned around for the Nationals, July 24^th (WaPo)

Turns out Cristian Guzman cleared waivers, and the Nats are happy about that (ANATT)

Some aren’t very optimistic about Jordan Zimmermann’s Tommy John (Triple Play)

Nationals sign five Dominican ball players all  allegedly under the age of 20 (ANATT)