(Image via @Nationals Twitter account)

This is a segment that I’ve called “predictions” in previous seasons, but there really aren’t any questions about the Washington Nationals 25-man roster going into 2013. We’ll take a couple of posts to remind you who the key players are to the Nationals upcoming season what they’ll need to do to be successful. We start today with the starting pitchers, because if the Nats are going to be successful, it all starts here.

Last season, the starting pitchers avoided a single injury to the core rotation, which is unbelievably uncommon. Statistical probability says the team won’t be quite so lucky this year. However, if they’re able to stay healthy, this is undoubtedly the best rotation in baseball once again.

1. Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is, without question, the ace of this rotation. He’s coming off of an extremely solid season with a 3.16 ERA, an even more impressive 2.82 FIP, and a 4.3 WAR. The one issue was his innings, obviously, considering his much-discussed shutdown in mid-September. The Nationals have publicly said he won’t be on a limit this year, but I do expect they will be a bit cautious. Don’t expect Strasburg to throw many, if any, complete games unless he’s pitching historically well (see: no-hitter, perfect game), nor should you expect him to wind up with 240 innings. I do expect his numbers to be at least as good as last season, though.

2. Gio Gonzalez – By all indications from ESPN’s Outside The Lines report, Gonzalez did not receive PEDs from Biogenesis and Dr. Anthony Bosch, so the Nats can look forward to putting this nasty matter behind them once they get official word that MLB’s investigation didn’t turn up anything. The team can lock in Gio as their starter for Game 2 on April 3. They’ll hope to get similar production from him, and his 2.89 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 5.4 WAR are definitely great numbers to strive for.

3. Jordan Zimmermann – One of the team’s most underrated players, Zimmermann finally got some recognition in mid-to-late summer when he posted some truly ludicrous July numbers: 0.97 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and 0.84 WHIP. His end-of-season numbers weren’t too bad either: 2.94 WHIP, 3.51 FIP, 3.5 WAR. Zimmermann finally had a chance to put in a full season’s worth of innings after he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and it’s clear how valuable he has become to the team.
He’s among the best number three pitchers in the game, and he signed a nice one-year/$5.35 million deal for 2013 to avoid arbitration. You’d expect the Nationals would like to try signing him long term, but it’s becoming more and more clear that JZimm may make some serious dough in free agency considering recent deals like the one Zack Greinke signed with the Dodgers. The team may have some trouble getting a hometown discount for the Wisconsin native, especially considering his added experience should make 2013 a very good year for him.

4. Ross Detwiler – Detwiler was widely regarded as the best number five starter in baseball in 2012, so he’ll have a lot to live up to this season, especially since he’s moving up in the rotation. Moving Detwiler to the number four is the right move given his recent performances at the MLB level. I expect Detwiler to continue challenging hitters with his fastball like he did last season, and his 3.40 ERA to be about the same and his 4.04 WHIP to come down a tick to below 4.00.

5. Dan Haren – Haren’s acquisition this offseason was yet another shrewd move by Nats GM Mike Rizzo. Haren had back problems last year with the Angels, which caused him to put up career-worst numbers since he became a full-time MLB starter in 2005. If he’s healthy, however, Haren is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. In the five seasons before his down, and injured, 2012, Haren posted a cumulative 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9. If the Nats get anywhere near that with Haren throwing against other number five pitchers, the team will be in excellent shape. It all depends on his health, which Haren claims is a non-issue entering this season.

This team has very few weak links, but the success of the team will largely depend on the health of these five players.

Next edition: Bullpen preview

This is the first podcast since Gio Gonzalez was tied to a clinic that allegidly provided performance-enhancing drugs, so we address that issue before we get into spring training. We explore if the Washington Nationals have any real roster battles, and we evaluate the NL East competition a bit, focusing on the Atlanta Braves offseason moves.

The 2012 Washington Nationals season ended in about the worst way possible, but that’s all over starting today. The 2013 season is finally underway. Pitchers and catchers are required to report to the Washington Nationals Spring Training facility in Viera, Florida by today, though many like Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Zach Duke have already reported.

There will be a lot of energy focused on Gio Gonzalez in the first couple of days, but don’t get caught up in that. Enjoy that we can start talking about real baseball, and the first spring games are less than two weeks away. Happy Pitchers and Catchers, everyone!

Thanks for your patience, readers. This is the last installment of the 2012 Player-By-Player wrap up. (photo: The Washington Post)

Henry Rodriguez is the ultimate “pitcher with potential.” He has potential because he can hit triple-digits on the radar gun with his fastball on command. The problem: he rarely knows where it’s going. His only truly decent season was his 2011 campaign where he had a 3.56 ERA in 65.2 innings. Unfortunately, he also had a 1.508 WHIP and led the National League with 14 wild pitches.

In 2012, his potential earned him a few games as the Nationals' closer. Unfortunately, he blew 25% of his save chances before he was removed from the role in favor of Tyler Clippard. In just 29.1 innngs because of a back injury, Rodriguez still finished third in wild pitches in the National League and finished with a 5.83 ERA.

There was a Nationals Classic on MASN the other day, and Henry Rodriguez was on the mound. It is easy to forget how terrifying it was to watch HRod pitch. When he’s on, he is absolutely untouchable with his fastball and an occasional changeup. When he’s not on, it’s worse than a train wreck. The catcher’s mitt could be a mile wide and he couldn’t hit it.

Next year: It’s hard to imagine how Rodriguez cracks the 25-man roster this season because of the team’s depth there, but if he doesn’t, he’s out of minor league options which would put him on the open market. If he becomes available, some team will pick him up, seeing the same potential in him that the Nationals did when they acquired him in the Josh Willingham trade.

Next up: Some 2013 season previews

Throughout the offseason, The Nats Blog will look back at every player’s 2012 season to summarize and analyze his performance, and we’ll look ahead to his possible role in 2013. We’ll go from #1 Steve Lombardozzi all the way to #63 Henry Rodriguez until Spring Training. Enjoy.

Though his call-up to the major leagues was a bit overshadowed by Bryce Harper’s the day before, Tyler Moore stepped into the spotlight in his own right during the 2012 season.

The 26-year-old, who was drafted by the Nationals in 2008 in  the 16^th round, had been one of the Nats’ top prospects for some time, with good reason. In both 2010 and 2011, Moore hit 31 home runs in the minor leagues and held a batting average of .269 and .270, respectively, which earned him a slew of minor league honors and awards. Moore continued to show his prowess at the plate against major league pitchers when he  played with the big club, although it took him a little while to adjust.

In his first month with the team he hit .158 with seven strikeouts in 19 at-bats. After being briefly sent back down to the minors, he was recalled on June 7 and remained with the team through the end of the season. Upon his return, he showed the potential he had flaunted in the minors. In the following 63 games with the Nationals, he had 137 at-bats and produced a slash line of .277/.349/.562, with 10 home runs 29 total RBI.

It is also worth noting that Moore, a first baseman by trade, had never played outfield before the 2012 season, but he spent the majority of his time there for the Nationals. Moore credited Bo Porter, the Nationals’ former third base coach, with helping him learn to play the position, and though he wasn’t quite Gold Glove caliber, he never made an error in 30 total chances.

Moore’s first season in the majors also gave him the fortunate opportunity to play in the postseason, and the rookie earned his participation. He saw his sole at-bat of the postseason in Game 1 of the NLDS, and with two outs in the top of the eighth inning, Moore salvaged a game that was looking grim. Moore lofted a 93-mile-per-hour fastball into left field, scoring Michael Morse and Ian Desmond and pushing the score to 3-2, Nationals. The St. Louis Cardinals didn’t score again in the remaining innings, and Moore went home a hero after his first-ever postseason appearance.

Next Year: Moore’s days in the minors appear to be over. In 2013 he will most likely fill a similar role to the one he held in 2012, as a member of the Goon Squad, backup left fielder and first baseman, unless injuries thrust him into a starting position. He had a fairly high strikeout percentage (26.9) in 2012, which isn’t ideal for a pinch hitter, but having a starter-caliber player as an option off the bench is too valuable an asset to waste in the minors.

Up Next: #63 Henry Rodriguez

Christian Garcia is the type of player that you want to see succeed, because he has a story. He’s had Tommy John surgery twice, which is a nail in the coffin for most pitches, but he’s shown some success following his second surgery.

Garcia was called up to the big club in September with Zach Duke, and he is being groomed as a starter for the Nats now after a great September and postseason. He lit up the minors with an astonishing 0.86 ERA and 0.917 WHIP with Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse before his call up, proving his value since his acquisition from the Yankees organization.

In nine out of 12 levels in his career’s, Garcia’s had a 9.00 or higher K/9, and in September 2012, he stranded almost 98% of baserunners in 13 games with a 10.66 K/9. If Garcia can stay healthy, this is the type of performance that people can expect from the righty.

Next year: I’m not sure what to expect from the experiment of stretching out Christian Garcia as a starter. He certainly has great potential, but his injury history with major elbow surgery is a point of great concern.

I expect Garcia to start in Triple-A as a starter to see if they can make it work, but he’ll probably be the first call up as a righty reliever should any injuries occur at the MLB level. His talent is too valuable to a team that is going to be in contention for big things this year.

Next up: #57 Tyler Moore

Throughout the offseason, The Nats Blog will look back at every player’s 2012 season to summarize and analyze his performance, and we’ll look ahead to his possible role in 2013. We’ll go from #1 Steve Lombardozzi all the way to #63 Henry Rodriguez until Spring Training. Enjoy.

There’s not much to say about Brad Lidge and the 2012 season. The former star closer was brought into the organization as insurance for Drew Storen, the Nats young closer, but that never worked the way the team had hoped. Storen went down with elbow surgery and Lidge never panned out before being released and retiring this offseason.

Eury Perez deserves a bit more exploration. He was a September call up for the Nats, mainly as a baserunner and a defensive replacement. After rising from Double-A Harrisburg to Triple-A Syracuse in 2012, Perez has really shown his value. He posted an impressive .314/.344/.705 slash line at all MiLB levels last season.

Perez’s claim to fame is speed, though, and he let that show with the big club. He appeared in 13 games, eight of them as a pinch runner. He had three stolen bases and three runs in those limited chances.

All of this combined made him the seventh-best prospect in the Nationals organization for 2013, according to Baseball America. He didn’t appear on the previous list, but that probably has more to do with top prospects leaving the organization than with his significant improvement.

Next Year: Lidge will be golfing after announcing his retirement in December. Perez will probably start in Triple-A to get some more opportunities, but it’s possible we could see him again in 2013 if a few key players suffer injuries.

Up Next: #56 Christian Garcia

Throughout the offseason, The Nats Blog will look back at every player’s 2012 season to summarize and analyze his performance, and we’ll look ahead to his possible role in 2013. We’ll go from #1 Steve Lombardozzi all the way to #63 Henry Rodriguez until Spring Training. Enjoy.

Carlos Maldonado is a journeyman catcher that has been in the Nationals organization almost since its existence. Even still, the 34-year-old catcher who pushes 300 lbs. has just 74 MLB plate appearances in his career. He was called up in 2012 after the ludicrous number of injuries to Nats catchers. He didn’t record a hit.

Michael Gonzalez was a surprisingly important member of the Nats bullpen in 2012, especially during Sean Burnett’s struggles. Gonzalez recored a 3.03 ERA in 35.2 innings, and he pitched well against righties and lefties. It was a bit of a reclamation season for Gonzalez, who had struggled in Baltimore and Texas the previous season.

Ryan Mattheus, the Firework himself, had another great year in 2012. He posted a 2.85 ERA, nearly identical to his 2.81 ERA from 2011, but his WHIP and K/9 improved in more than double the number of innings. He can light up the radar gun in the mid-90s and can even pitch late innings. Here’s hoping he keeps his warm up song, because it’s impossible to be angry when you hear it.

Next year: Maldonado will sit in the minor leagues for the Nationals again in 2013. Hopefully he doesn’t make an appearance for the Nats, because that would mean there were serious injury issues at the catcher’s spot again. Gonzalez signed a one-year deal to play for the Milwaukee Brewers. Ryan Mattheus will work middle innings the majority of the time for the Nats now that Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Rafael Soriano have the late innings.

Up Next: #54 Brad Lidge and #55 Eury Perez