Five of the top 10 picks in the 2009 draft will attend the Arizona Fall League this October.

The most notable participant of this group will be number one overall pick, Stephen Strasburg, who will be making his professional debut in the AFL. Strasburg will be pitching for the Phoenix Desert Dogs whose season will begin October 13^th.

In an article by Jonathan Mayo, AFL executive director Steve Cobb said:

"This appears to be an exceptionally strong class of Major League prospects…..We will feature over 20 first-round Draft picks, several high-ceiling position players and the pitching depth is unmatched vs. previous years."

Joining Strasburg in the AFL will be:

• No. 2 pick- Dustin Ackley
  
• No. 7 pick- Mike Minor
  
• No. 8 pick- Mike Leake
  
• No. 10 pick- Drew Storen
  
• MLB.com’s #1 prospect-Jason Heyward
  

Before the Brewers clinched the Wild Card in 2008, the last time they had been in the playoffs Ronald Reagan was only in his second year of his first term.

It was a struggle for the Brewers from 1982-2008, filled with 16 years of embarrassment, futility, and well, Bud Selig-ness. The low point came in 2002 when the Brewers finished the season in last place with a record of 56-106. Brewers fans had had-it, following the 2002 season the club hired a new General Manager, Doug Melvin.

Under Melvin’s tutelage, the Brewers developed and grew arguably the league’s best home grown talent.

First came pitching phenom Ben Sheets. Sheets had been drafted in 1999, 10^th overall by the Brewers, and by 2000 he was an Olympic hero for the American Baseball team. He soon rode his newfound fame to the Major Leagues, however many speculated that he may have been rushed. For three years sheets produced mediocre results, which were interrupted by shoulder problems.

In 2004 however Sheets broke out in a big way. In 34 starts the hard throwing righty posted a 2.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 264 strikeouts to only 32 walks in 220 innings pitched. Those numbers were good enough for the leagues best strikeout to walk ratio and for a second All Star appearance for Sheets.

Then for the Brewers came the young home grown hitters we all know today. And as Sheets combined with Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart and eventually Sabathia the team rose to the top of the standings in 2008.

In the second half of 2008 Sabathia and Sheets were sensational for the Brewers. Sabathia recorded seven complete games and three shutouts. In 130 innings the big fella went 11-2, posted a 1.65 ERA and struck out 128. Sheets matched his brilliance with three shutouts of his own, along with a 3.09 ERA.

However the team met their downfall in the playoffs when Sheets could not pitch due to yet another arm injury. They lost 3-1 in the NLDS to eventual World Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

While the Brewers learned an important lesson about homegrown talent in 2008, that it needed to be supplemented by outside help, they also found that with Sheets Health, went the season.

Sheets arm troubles came from years of over work in a time when he should have been developing. By the time the Brewers needed him to be the Cy Young caliber pitcher he was, his arm was already on the fritz. The Brewers were in a bind in the early part of the decade and they needed their phenom young stud to pitch in the majors, whether that would result in success or failure.

If the Nationals are lucky, newly introduced pitcher Stephen Strasburg may someday reach the level of Ben Sheets at his best. Like Sheets ,Strasburg pitches above 95 miles per hour, has great breaking pitches, and tremendous strikeout potential.

Sheets and Strasburg both hold the distinction of striking out 20 batters in one Division I college baseball game, and of course they both hold the distinction of being anointed the savior of a franchise much in need of saving.

Both young starters pitched for team USA and both were considered at that time, essentially MLB ready.
  

Today however, the two stand very much apart in their careers, as Strasburg was just introduced into the league, and Sheets is currently on the outside looking in. Yet another shoulder surgery in the 2008 offseason left Sheets without a team for 2009, and while he will likely be back someday, neither he nor the Brewers will find the form they had in 2008 for a while.

The Nationals must learn from the Brewers cautionary tale and protect their investment. While we all may be itching to see number 37 in uniform, lets remember that number 15 no longer is.

Patience; it’s the key to hitting, it’s the key to pitching, and it’s the key to long careers.
 

It comes down to tomorrow.

Tomorrow is when one of two things will happen. Either Stephen Strasburg signs and the Major League Baseball draft is changed forever, or he doesn’t, and people will be labeled.

Scott Boras will be labeled as the greediest man on earth. Some may say he already has that title secured, but an agent who refuses a contract that is nearly 60 percent larger than the previous record one is unconscionable.

Stephen Strasburg will be labeled as a sell out, a kid with no heart for the game, and will be ostracized by many players for at least a good part of his early career.

Stan Kasten, the Lerner’s, and the Washington Nationals will be labeled as nearly failures. They will lose as much respect as a last place team can when they blow away a once in a lifetime chance to sign a savior.

The problem is that all sides have a case.

Boras has two main arguments. First he uses the example of another one of his clients, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Daisuke received a 52 million dollar contract in 2007 after the Red Sox paid 50 million just to have the exclusive rights to simply talk to him. Daisuke came to the big leagues from Japan, and therefore and no Major League or Minor League experience, which is why Boras compares the two players. Boras’ contention is that high division one college baseball is equivalent to Japanese baseball.

Second, Boras is comparing the change in markets. In 1998 when J.D Drew signed a seven million dollar bonus, baseball’s gross revenues were two billion dollars. In 2001 when Mark Teixiera got a bonus of 10.8 million dollars, baseball’s gross revenues were at three and a half billion dollars. Today, baseball’s gross revenues are six and a half billion dollars.

Therefore according to Boras’s logic, even if he were the same talent as Teixiera he would be worth far more in today’s game. But Boras’ doesn’t just contest that he is as good as Teixiera, Daisuke, or Prior, but better than all of them.

If Boras succeeds in this precedent then it will mean much more money for not only him with this deal, but a huge shift in the market will allow him more money on many other deals.

This solid argument, and the pending deadline, put the Nationals leadership in a seriously tough bind. It’s been a rough year for the Washington Nationals. Scratch that, it’s been a rough four years for the Washington Nationals. There were high hopes for the franchise when it came to the city from Montreal in 2005, but nearly none of those hopes have been met yet.

The brand-new park is empty. The television ratings are pathetic. The play on the field is the worst in baseball, and they failed to sign Mark Teixiera, who was from the area, despite offering him more money than the New York Yankees. Not signing Steven Strasburg, especially only one year removed from not signing first round pick Aaron Crow, would be utter disaster for the club leadership. It would be an epic failure and perhaps the straw that broke the camels back as because Las Vegas is looking pretty attractive for a new MLB franchise.

Despite all that, Ted Lerner is a Major League Baseball owner, and the owner’s stick together. Can he afford to go out and completely change the market in order to save his own ball club? Will the other owners even allow it? It would be crazy to think that the collective MLB owners haven’t had conversations on the subject.

Then there is Stephen Strasburg, the one man in all of this who has the wiggle room to compromise.

Strasburg has already been offered a record-shattering contract from the Nationals, so regardless, if he signs he will make history. Regardless, if he signs the contract this instant, he will be set for life with 17 million dollars, and regardless of if he gets more money or not, he will start his career.

Isn’t that the point anyways? The once chubby undrafted high-schooler had a dream to be a Major League baseball player and the only way to delay that for at least another year is by not signing. If he signs, he will be on the path to be a big leaguer, if he doesn’t he wont. It’s that simple.

The Nationals are under tremendous pressure to not bend too far from their 17 million dollar offer, and Boras has no problem letting Strasburg sit out a year if a deal he likes doesn’t come around. It’s up to Strasburg to bend and make sure this thing is done, it’s the best thing for everyone. 

AAA Syracuse Senators-Collin Balester
Balester was expected to make the Nationals rotation entering 2009 after earning 15 starts with the big league club in 2008. The 22 year old former first round pick struggled in spring training and proved to the Nats management that he needed some more seasoning. However, to Balester’s dismay, the Major League rotation has been completely restructured since March and despite the call up of two other starters he still remains in Syracuse.  While he has struggled up north, his last three starts have been a good sign for the prospect. In his last 16 innings pitched he has allowed only 12 hits, two earned runs, four walks, and struck out eight. It’s starting to look like he may have finally figured it out and he may very well be the next call up we see for our rotation in Washington.

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AAA Syracuse Chiefs - Lastings Milledge

It looks like Lastings may have finally found his stroke up in Syracuse as he is hitting .302 with 2 RBI and 2 steals in his last 10 games. This effort brings his overall batting average in triple-A to an unimpressive .263, and he has only 3 RBI and four steals total. It’s kind of confusing really, it looks like he has lost all power when he actually does make contact. He’s slugging a measly .333 and getting on base at a measly .300. He has yet to hit a homer anywhere since spring training and he is still striking out once every five at bats. I think the right move would have been to let the kid stay up, confidence looks lost.

AA Harrisburg Senators - Ross Detwiler

Ross Detwiler bounced back from a pair of two starts to put a solid effort on the board which will serve as a notch in his belt on the road back to the majors he once tasted as a 20 year old. Detwiler threw five innings against Arkansas on the 29^th, striking out two and allowing only one earned run. He gave up three walks in five innings however, as it looks that his control is still not mastered. This may be a good sign for the Nats, and finally a step in the right direction.

High A Potomac Nationals - Eric Arneson 

Eric Arneson is a righty out of Grove City College who excelled in the inaugural season of the Hawaiian Winter League. So far through five starts in Potomac, Aerneson is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings pitched. He has 21 strikeouts to only seven walks and has only let up one long ball. Two things that should be concerning however are his age (25 in A Ball) and his opposing batting average, .295. Maybe he’s just a smart pitcher who gets out of jams, but anyone who lets the opposition hit nearly .300 against them and still has a 2.42 ERA cant be hoping to hold onto that success long without pulling off some sort of magic trick.

Low A Hagerstown Suns - Robert Jacobsen

Robert Jacobsen is a local boy who played his college ball at George Mason University. In his last 10 games for Hagerstown he is batting .395 with four extra base hits, and five RBI. While its clear Jacobsen has a hot bat, a few things should be noted. First, he has only walked once in 52 at bats, a bad sign. Second he is 24 and in low A ball, a worse sign. Third, he hasn’t shown to develop power yet at his size and age, a disastrous sign. 

AAA Syracuse Chiefs –Tyler Clippard

It seems that the Nationals have decided to convert once top prospect starter Tyler Clippard into a reliever. So far he has excelled, in five games he has tossed 9.1 innings, allowed sven hits. Most impressively he has struck out 14 and walked only one, helping to make up his 0.96 ERA. Clippard was drafted by the Yankees in the 9^th round of the 2003 amateur draft. He soon worked his way up the ranks to be considered one of the better starters on their farm until he was traded to the Nationals in 2007. Since arriving to Washington he has had trouble breaking into the majors. His fastball, though active, has proven too flat and was often hit hard.

AA Harrisburg Senators – Ross Detwiler

Detwiler continues to baffle scouts as his struggles drag on and on. Detwiler was great in his  first outing on 4/11 where he pitched 5.0 IP allowing 0 ER and only five hits. However his last two starts has seen him combine to pitch 7.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 4 BB, to bring his overall line to 0-2, 5.11 ERA. The Nats front office hopes that Detwiler will be an important part of the teams future. While Zimmermann has been the most successful youngster, all scouts agree that Detwiler has more potential.

High A Potomac Nationals – Michael Burgess

Burgess blasted onto the scene last summer as one of the best power hitting prospects for his age group. The young outfielder hit 24 homers in 472 at bats last season between high and low A ball. He also struck out 162 times. So far he hasn’t made the progression that many hoped they would make. Through 18 games with Potomac this season he’s putting up an ugly line of .182/.299/.455. He has 19 strikeouts in only 66 at bats, which is close to a 33 percent strikeout rate.

Low A Hagerstown Suns – Jack McGeary

McGeary finally dropped out of Stanford this spring to focus full time on professional baseball. Previous seasons had seen him playing half time for the Nationals farm system and half time taking classes in Palo Alto. So far his return to fulltime baseball has not been as well received as anyone would like. In 13.2 IP he has a 6.59 ERA and has allowed 13 this and 9 walks. He has also struck out 12. 

This is a strange position for us Washington sports fans.  Hardly are we ever the first in anything as the Redskins, Capitals, Wizards and Nationals hover somewhere between mediocre and downright wretched from year to year. Yes on a rare occasion a team will have a run like the Capitals are having this year, but for the most part the biggest significance our nations capital holds in the sporting world is an occasional playoff birth, an arrested player, or an absurd quote.

The summer of 2009 will host an interesting change however, as the Washington Nationals dreadful 2008 has rewarded them the top pick in the amateur draft. As in all sports the number one pick comes with a great amount of responsibility and pressure, and for a good deal of time the limelight will be shining on Washington's newly restructured front office. Local fans know all too well what can happen when a team picks the wrong player first overall; the selection of Kwame Brown to the Wizards has left fans bitter and disappointed to this day.

But the speculation of the Nats first pick in 2009 wont be about who is the top talent in the draft, it will be what will Washington, or any organization do about phenom Stephen Strasburg. There is no question among anyone who has been paying attention to amateur baseball that the hard throwing righty has the potential to not just be the next big thing, but the best thing to come along for the next 25-50 years.

Strasburg has been clocked to constantly be throwing between 101-103 miles per hour so far in this his junior season at San Diego State University. If that wasn't unreal enough, in his 42.1 innings pitched so far this year he has struck out 88 and allowed only 8 walks. Opponents are batting .161 against him and he has an ERA of 1.70.

He is Major League ready, injury free, has a good head on his shoulders and is simply everything an organization wants. Unfortunately, Scott Boras, Strasburg's agent, knows this better than anyone. The super-agent, or super-villain depending on who you ask, Boras has in Strasburg a client that can forever change the contract negotiations of top draft picks in Major League Baseball. As it stands today, reports have Boras expecting a $50 million bonus for his client from presumably the Nationals or whoever has the nerve to draft the kid. Compare that to David Price's bonus of $8 million only a few years ago and you can see the conundrum the Nats with their first pick are in.

Aside from just his talent Strasburg has everything going in his favor for a record shattering bonus this summer.

He has they hype: In the last two weeks alone since college baseball has heated up, almost all major sports media outlets have done pieces on Strasburg, his talent, and his financial desires. ESPN had a re-occurring segment about him on Sportscenter. Yahoo.com had a feature piece on their front page asking if he will be the hardest thrower ever. Within weeks Strasburg has gone from a celebrity in inner-baseball circles to a well known name across the game.

He has the lore: Triple digits on the radar gun can give bad pitchers a career, there's something about it that captivates fans with super-human possibilities. But a constant 101 MPH fastball isn't the only legend Strasburg carries with him. He is an Olympic hero, carrying the team in its last campaign as the only college player on the roster and he has what makes all legends remembered, stories. Most notably of all, the story of his 21K game on a day where he had the flu.

He has the bargaining position: The Nationals failure to sign first round pick Aaron Crow in 2008 will come back to haunt them again. With Jim Bowden out Nationals fans will demand to see that there will be a change in the way things are operated, and seeing yet another top talent slip through the hands of a franchise that desperately needs it will not sit well. Boras knows this and can force the Nats hand. The media both locally and nationally will put huge pressure on Washington to take Strasburg, because any team that would pass on once in a generation talent is surely not a quality organization.

So as it stands it looks as if not only will the Nationals draft Stephen Strasburg, they will most likely give him whatever he wants. Whether or not they should is a question for another post, but it seems like despite the how, Nats fans should rejoice that this great talent is coming to D.C.

But lets hear your opinion, should the Nats take him/give him that money?