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Written by William Yoder | 22 February 2012

Some takeaways:

- Bryce Harper sounds like a lot of 18/19-year-old kids I played baseball with. The good thing is he sounds like the ones that were destined for stardom. There are too many incredibly talented athletes who do not care about their gift, who wish they were doing something else. But as Harper says he doesn't care about the pressure because he has higher expectations on himself than anyone.

- Reynolds was in the Mariners system when Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. came to the Majors at the same age as Harper. He said after watching Bryce work out that he was truly impressed incomparrison to those two future Hall of Famers. While you dont expect Reynolds to slight the 19-year-old kid during the interview, that is NOT a compliment he had to give. To me that speaks volumes.

- Harper doesn't want to be a major league player, or the best player on the Nationals, he wants to be the best player in baseball. That type of motivation coupled with that type of talent is incredibly promising.

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Written by Joe Drugan | 21 February 2012

Cristian GuzmanThe Cleveland Indians will sign former Washington Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzmán to a minor league deal pending a physical, according to MLB Trade Rumors and MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.  Guzmán was the Nats shortstop during Indians manager Manny Acta's time as the skipper in Washington.

The Washington Nationals parted ways with Cristian Guzmán back in 2010 at the trade deadline, and he finished the season with the Texas Rangers.  The Nationals got the socially-savvy Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark back in the deal.

Guzmán had an up-and-down career with the Nationals, and many remember him fondly as the team's starting shortstop when the Nats came to DC in 2005.  Perhaps the most memorable season was in 2008, when he was named as the Nationals only All-Star represntative.  He hit .316 and posted a career high .345 OBP, which was remarkable.  Guzmán was never known for his patience at the plate.

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Written by Joe Drugan | 21 February 2012

adam-laroche-apThe 2012 Washington Nationals season is unofficially underway, and stories are flying out about how important Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper are to the team this season.  All of those people are vital to the team's success, but one crucial piece of the puzzle continues to fly under the radar: Adam LaRoche.

It was a tumultuous offseason for LaRoche, as he recovered from labrum surgery and wondered if his job would be there in 2012 until Prince Fielder signed with the Detroit Tigers.  After Fielder was off the table, LaRoche said all the right things to the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore:

“I can’t say I cared about it.  I didn’t lose any sleep over it. It would have obviously been a disappointment. I think everybody knows we’re turning the corner right now, and I wanted to be a part of that.  I understand why stuff like that happens. I wouldn’t have any grudges. I would have totally understood the business decision. Then again, it’s fixing to get really exciting in D.C., and I want to be a part of it.”

The laid back attitude that LaRoche brings to the team will be vital, combined with his ability to hit for power from the left side of the plate.  After recovering from his shoulder surgery, LaRoche started in the cage in December and January to prepare for the season.  He told MASNSports.com's Pete Kerzel

"I wouldn't even say it's there yet, as far as 100 percent. But it was the first couple of weeks of hitting when I started getting excited (and feeling like) this is turning out to be really good, it feels really good. I have every hope that by the end of camp it's going to be really good swinging and I think throwing will eventually come."

The Nationals have to hope LaRoche makes a full recovery too 100% before April 5th.  Despite flying under the radar to the team's current stars, he will be an important bat at the heart of the lineup.  He will fit in to break up a lineup full of right-handed batters in the middle of the order, including Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth.

It's easy to forget, but LaRoche also brings a track record of home runs and RBI.  From 2006 to 2010, he put up a .273/.343/.493 slash line, good for an impressive .836 OPS.  He didn't hit fewer than 80 RBI in those five seasons, and in 2010, he hit 25 home runs and drove in a career-high 100 RBI for an Arizona Diamondbacks team that won just 65 games.  His 2011 season is an unfair comparison, as he was unhealthy from Spring Training until his surgery.

LaRoche will likely replace Jayson Werth in the Nationals No. 5 spot in the batting order, and that's a good spot for him.  He'll have the opportunity to have Werth, Zimmermann, and Morse on base in front of him to drive in runs and hopefully approach the 2010 version of himself by the time the season ends.  As the season rolls on, LaRoche may end up as trade bait once he shows he's healthy, but for now, he's an important part of the Nationals everyday lineup.

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Written by William Yoder | 21 February 2012

bryce-harper.p1Bryce Harper reported to Nationals spring training camp yesterday and already, before he has had even one exhibition game at bat, teammates, coaches, and the media are speculating whether the 19-year-old can make the MLB squad.

When pressed about it, Harper himself told the Washington Post all the right things:

“I’m going work as hard as I can, keep my mouth shut and play,” Harper said. “I’m going to make their decision hard as much as I can. I want to be up here. I want to play, and I want to play in D.C.”

“Even last year, I was disappointed,” Harper said. “I came here, and I wanted to make the team last year. This year, I’m trying to come here and make the team. Hopefully, things work out and we won’t have to talk about me going down to the minors.”

The storyline has caught the attention of National media outlets from Yahoo! to ESPN as baseball writers spin out their spring training previews and blog posts about stories to watch this March. It's a narrative that will sell tickets and draw media attention to Viera, Florida, and clearly that is something that Washington is interested in doing.

The Nationals front office has said that Harper will have a chance to play his way on to the team if he comes to camp and produces. Team skipper Davey Johnson, who famously coached a 19-year-old Dwight Gooden in New York, said he would love to have the mega-prospect in Washington. But how much of this is real? How much of it should be?

While undeniably talented, it's important to keep in mind that in his one professional season Harper had only 37 games played in Double-A. He hit just .256/.329/.395 with three home runs and 12 RBI. That hardly screams preparedness for the most competitive level of baseball in the world. And while his potential is off the charts when compared to his peers, even if you look at other players who made the jump to the Major Leagues when they were 19/20, he has less experience than them.

Alex Rodriguez had 84 games of Triple-A experience before becoming an everyday player in Seattle. Ken Griffey Jr. made the jump from Double-A to the MLB, but even he had 92 games at that level under his belt, and he hit .316 with 15 home runs at that level. A more recent comparable, Mike Stanton, who some speculate was rushed to the Majors, at 132 games at Double-A before jumping into the Marlins lineup.

Nats GM Mike Rizzo is also a very patient man. It's perhaps one of his best qualities as a general manager, and he has shown it with previous prospects as well as with injury rehabilitation in the past. He'd rather have his players go through the motions, not skip any steps, and be 100% ready to perform when they make it to the team in Washington. I really see no reason why it would be any different with Bryce Harper this spring.

It's important to remember that while it is a place to showcase where he is in his development, his stint with the Nationals this spring should hardly be considered a tryout. He needs to be developed, he needs to learn to master Double and Triple-A baseball before he makes the jump to Washington, and that fact will not change regardless of if he hits .550 with 11 home runs off of spring training pitching. What will his spring stats matter if MLB pitchers identify and capitalize on his weaknesses a few weeks later in games that count?

I think it will be a lot of fun seeing Harper push for an MLB spot, and I think it will be great for Nationals baseball as well as the kid himself to have him push other players and himself to prove everyone wrong. In the end though, it comes down to business. I don't see Washington simply taking a stab at placing him in the outfield on opening day just to see what happens.

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Written by Patrick Hilley | 20 February 2012

Jordan-ZimmermannIn the Washington Nationals pursuit for their first winning season, there has been one constant that has plagued the team throughout their six years as a franchise.  That constant has been major injuries.  From Nick Johnson’s fragile body to Ryan Zimmerman’s DL stints, the team has seen its fair share of season altering injuries.  Most recently though in the last three years, it has been the Nationals’ top starting pitchers that have felt the pain with very similar UCL tears that led to Tommy John surgery.

It all began in 2009, with the Nationals’ No. 2 pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann.  Two months into his impressive rookie debut in the majors, Zimmermann was placed on the disabled list with elbow pain that affected his throwing arm.  By his first rehab start in the minors, nothing had changed and he was diagnosed with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery.

One year later, the No. 1 prospect in all baseball, Stephen Strasburg, made his highly anticipated debut in Washington.  Almost two months later, just like Zimmermann, he was placed on the disabled list for shoulder pain.  In his third start back against the Phillies, he was taken out of the game after showing visible pain and discomfort in his throwing elbow.  Shortly after, he received the same exact diagnosis as Zimmermann with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery.

To today’s everyday baseball fan, Tommy John surgery is so common that it almost feels commonplace for major league pitchers. The surgery is most frequently attributed to repetitive use or strain of the elbow, which explains why pitchers are primarily subject to it.  Before the surgery was discovered, a torn MCL or UCL would mean the end of a pitcher’s career.  When it was first performed on Tommy John in 1974, the odds of a full recovery were said to be 1 in 100.  According to Discovery Health, today the odds have increased significantly to around 85% to reach full recovery, but the recovery time is still long for baseball standards at around 12-18 months.

Although there have been vast improvements in medical treatments, there is a significant amount of speculation as to whether or not Tommy John surgery affects a player’s career, but at a 85% full recovery rate, there are many that have had huge success.  The most famous examples nowadays are John Smoltz, Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, and C.J. Wilson.

In more recent memory, there are two cases that have clear similarities to both Zimmermann and Strasburg: Josh Johnson of the Miami Marlins and Jaime Garcia of the St. Louis Cardinals.  After a terrible/disappointing start to his second year in the majors, Josh Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery in the beginning of the 2007 baseball season at 23 years old, which is around the same age as Strasburg and Zimmerman when they both underwent surgery.  When Johnson returned an amazing 11 months later, nothing held him back.  From 2008-2011, he has posted an amazing 2.80 ERA, winning 36 games and losing only 13.  In addition, he was voted to the All-Star game twice and in 2010, he came in 5th in the Cy Young voting after posting the best ERA in all the majors.  It is obvious to state that Tommy John surgery did not hurt his performance, but it may have actually helped.

After Jaime Garcia’s debut late in the 2008 season, Garcia missed all of the 2009 major league season rehabbing his arm after Tommy John surgery. Since then, he has been “lights out” for the Cardinals.  In two seasons, his rookie season and last year, he has put up a 3.17 ERA with a 26 – 15 record, 288 strikeouts, three shutouts, and one World Series Championship.  Incredibly in his first season back, he came in third in the Rookie of the Year voting after posting an incredible 2.70 ERA.   The same can be said about Garcia as Johnson; that Tommy John surgery did not hinder his performance but may have actually helped.

After seeing these results numerous people have inquired into the possibility of getting Tommy John surgery just to improve their game.  There is even a myth that the surgery actually improves pitch speed.  Many doctors have explained that the surgery itself does not help a player but the emphasis on intense rehab and conditioning afterwards is what helps immensely and often leads to the results.  This conditioning is what the fans should focus on and not the actually surgery itself. These days it is very rare to see a failure with our amazing medical technology.

The return of Strasburg and Zimmermann showed that both players conditioned themselves to the point past full recovery like Johnson and Garcia did.  Zimmermann raised his fastball speed while posting a career year and Strasburg pitched 24 innings with 24 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA. Next season, Strasburg will be on an innings limit just like Zimmermann, but that shouldn’t slow him down, and Zimmermann will likely be free to let loose.  There are no sure things, but based on the best medical care possible, past player’s experiences, and last year’s stats, there is no reason to be anything but optimistic.

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Written by William Yoder | 20 February 2012

ryan-zimmerman-third-base-rendonTo me, Washington Post beat reporter Adam Kilgore is at the absolute top of his game in spring training. It's clear that he spends the entire offseason thinking of perfect potential February stories, and he wastes no time cutting through the fat. Yesterday, he asked Ryan Zimmerman about potentially, someday, having to change positions after the Nationals drafted third baseman Anthony Rendon with the No. 6 overall pick in last year's draft.

This was part of his response:

“I think I want to play third base until someone is better than me at it,” Zimmerman said. “I think there’s teams that move people. I’ve said it all along — I want to be here as long as I can. I want to play my whole career here. If that means me playing third base for five more years and then moving somewhere because someone is better than me at third and it’ll help us win, then I’ll do it. If that means me playing third base for 10 years and then going to first base or wherever, then I’ll do it. I don’t care.

"...I’m certainly not going to make it easy for someone to come and be better than me. Someone is going to have to take it from me. It’s not going to be given to them, that’s for sure. I don’t really see myself giving that up anytime soon.”

Kilgore also spoke to Zimmerman about changing his throwing mechanics last season to preserve his abdominal health. While it was an ugly sight last summer, he has reportedly honed in on the new throwing motion and it should no longer be an issue moving forward.

Given that, if Zimmerman can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can't retire as the Nationals' third baseman. We're not talking about Cal Ripken moving out of the shortstop position when he was in his late 30's and had played more games than any player before him. Zimmerman is a young man, in his prime, playing a position that many have been great at defensively even into their late 30's and early 40's. Unless something occurs where he is not able to throw across the diamond, there is no reason at all to believe that he can't play the position at a high level for the rest of his career.

Currently, you could make a very real argument that he is the best defensively at his position in the game of baseball today, alongside Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen and Evan Longoria. While he has committed a threw throwing errors over the past seasons which has brought down his overall UZR to slightly below the three names listed above, he has by far trumped them in Range Rating in the two seasons prior to his abdominal injury. This is important, because while fielding and throwing the ball cleanly is important for making outs, getting to balls that other third basemen cant saves runs. That's a weapon the Nationals need to keep at third base for as long as it continues to produce.

The more logical option, and I wish Kilgore would have asked this in the clubhouse yesterday, is whether or not Danny Espinosa still feels comfortable switching back over to shortstop, his native position. Ian Desmond has been a solid figure in the clubhouse for the Nationals the past two seasons, but his lack of production at the plate and in the field have made him expendable. If he does not make major strides this season, it's very likely that we'll see Espinosa move back across the infield to shortstop, and the club will begin grooming Rendon as the second baseman of the future.

All of these speculations rest on the assumption that Rendon will live up to his potential and will be in the Majors within the next several years, which of course, may not happen. While some expected him to be the lock for the No. 1 overall pick in 2011, his injuries and drop off in production helped him slip to Washington at No. 6. Will he be able to overcome the shoulder injury that forced a major drop-off in his Junior season? Will he have as much of a power bat when he switches from aluminum to wood? These are all issues we'll have to wait and see on, and time will have to be given to Rendon to answer them.

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Written by William Yoder | 19 February 2012

mike-cameronThrowing a major wrench in the Washington Nationals outfield plans, 39-year-old outfielder Mike Cameron made the decision to retire this morning. The actual expected size of Cameron's role with the Nationals was unkown, but it was expected that the former All-Star, who had signed a minor league deal this December, would make the team's Major League roster in the spring.

Cameron is considered by some to be one of the best defensive outfielders of the past 20 years. He has three Gold Gloves to his name, but that is a number that likely would have been higher had his bat ever come close to matching his glove. Had he reported to camp this spring and made the team, he would have been a great role model to the team's young outfielders on the roster who could use some mentoring on how to turn athleticism into true fielding ability.

The Nationals are a team short on veterans. Cameron's experience on eight Major League teams, spanning over 17-seasons, surely would have been welcomed and respected inside the clubhouse. At some point however, every player has to make the decision whether or not they can leave their family and head to Florida in mid-to-late February for yet another season. For whatever reason, this was the year Cameron decided to stay home, and while it would have been better for the Nationals to know in December that his heart was no longer in the game, it's better that the team begin camp knowing that there is a hole to fill.

So what now?

The general plan prior to today's announcement was to run a platoon in centerfield until Bryce Harper would be able to join the Major League squad later in the season. Mike Cameron was slotted to be the right-handed side of that platoon, and the winner of Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina would fill the left-handed side. Now with just the two left-handers, neither of whom are particularly good with the glove or the bat, things are looking a little more dicey.

Fortunately for GM Mike Rizzo, he does have a stockpile of starting pitchers which, if he chooses, he can attempt to turn into a starting center fielder via the trade market. This is an option that has been on the table since the signing of Edwin Jackson to a one-year, $11 million deal earlier this winter. However, it is one that has not been acted on and there may be a reason for that. While Washington has six, or potentially seven MLB ready starting pitchers for a five-man rotation, there is arguably only one arm (Gio Gonzalez) in that mix that you can consider "rock solid."

The problem is Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Chien-Ming Wang all have had major arm surgeries/injuries in the past four years. We know that Strasburg will have an innings pitched limit in 2012, and it's hard to believe that Wang could pitch a full 30-start season given his history. On top of the injury concerns, Edwin Jackson is only in Washington on a one-year contract, and that's no accident. Jackson is here to use Washington as a platform for next year's free-agnecy as much as Washington is using him as a one-year filler until 2013 when Washington will make their strongest push toward the playoffs. Given that, can you trade both Ross Detwiler and John Lannan, knowing that you very well could need them at any given moment if a pitcher gets hurt? Or next year after Jackson chases a long-term deal?

The retirement of Cameron may force Rizzo's hand. If Washington does want to be a potential playoff team in 2012, they may not be able to afford yet another season with Bernadina and Ankiel floundering in centerfield. That being said, we may not see any such deal done until after the beginning of the season. The Nationals still must see how close Bryce Harper is to being Major League ready before they make any move to sure up their outfield woes. There is no reason to destabilize the pitching situation in order to acquire an everyday centerfielder if Harper, the team's offensive future, is ready to contribute by June or July.

The beauty of the timing of Cameron's decision, though, is that it does give Washington all of camp to make their decision. It allows them time to give Ankiel and Bernadina (and perhaps an unknown) to prove themselves as a viable solution in center. It also gives Harper a chance to see Major League pitching while also giving Rizzo an opportunity to evaluate his readiness. With flexibility in camp, no decisions have to be made right away, which is probably the best thing for the makeup of the Nationals roster.

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Written by William Yoder | 19 February 2012

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Today Washington Nationals pitchers and catchers are formally required to report to spring training. That is a sentence I've been itching to write for months. It's a sentence that gave me hope through the Washington Redskins season, and kept me warm through the long Washington Capitals season. It's a sentence that means that, even though it is February and there is snow in the forcast for Washington, for every Nationals fan spring has finally arrived. 

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Written by William Yoder | 17 February 2012

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In a must-read blog post, the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore spoke with Nationals pitching coach Steve McCatty about his plans for spring training as well as his specific interactions with different Nats starters over the winter. One of the most promising tid-bits that McCatty shared is that they may have pinpointed something in newly acquired starter Edwin Jackson's wind-up that was inadvertently tipping pitches.

Kilgore Notes:

"Over the past three seasons, the league has hit .283/.344/.438 with no runners on base against Jackson, when he is pitching with a wind-up. The league has hit .246/.308/.385 with men on, when he’s pitching from the stretch. If the Nationals really can make him more effective from the wind-up, the $11 million they spent to acquire Jackson could look like a bargain."

This is a pretty interesting observation. It certainly is possible that he developed some sort of tick in his windup that allowed hitters to know what was coming when the bases were empty. When you think about a pitcher who throws four pitches, both out of the wind up and from the stretch, that is eight potential deliveries for a pitcher to manage. When you also consider the fact that Jackson entered the majors at an incredibly young age (19), it may be the case that he never fully developed each one of those deliveries as well as he could.

For Jackson, it may just be the case that he just feels more comfortable out of the stretch in general. That is a trait you see more often in former relievers who turn into starters, however, it's a much simpler motion which can help hurlers focus on control and delivery.

Digging a little deeper here, you find that Jackson's splits don't just get better when there are runners on as opposed to having the bases empty, but it seems that the more difficult the situation, the better he pitches. This indicates that it could be possible that the windup is not the issue for Jackson, but rather that he mentally is able to deliver better under high pressure situations.

Jackson in 2011:

Bases Empty: .339/.390/.442, 69 K, 32 BB, 424 Batters Faced
Runners On: .239/.292/.327, 79K, 30 BB, 433 Batters Faced
RISP: .216/.279/.312, 58K, 20 BB, 247 Batters Faced
RISP w/2 Outs: .202/.255/.293, 27K, 7BB, 106 Batters Faced
Bases Loaded: .091/.125/.063, 5k, 1BB, 16 Batters Faced 

None on/No out: .397/.443/.500, 27K, 15 BB, 210 Batters Faced
None on/ 1/2 outs: .284/.339/.385, 42K, 17 BB, 218 Batters Faced
Men on/2 outs: .240/.293/.357, 31K, 11BB, 157 Batters Faced

 

What do those numbers say to you? Is it possible Edwin Jackson is “clutch,” or is there something in his repertoire that makes it easier for him to get betters out with runners on base? Conventional wisdom insists that it is harder to pitch with runners on base because your infielders are moved out of optimal position, but Jackson’s career totals echo the numbers above.

It will be interesting to see if there is anything McCatty can do to make Jackson more comfortable out of the wind-up, but it very well could be the case that it has nothing to do with his delivery. It could simply be that the more difficult the situation, the more focused Jackson gets. In that case, he needs to tackle the mental side of the game more than the physical.

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Written by Joe Drugan | 17 February 2012

The Nats Blog's Joe Drugan and Capitol Baseball's Craig MacHenry talk about Washington Nationals baseball.

 

In this week's episode, we talk about:

The Nationals leaving Space Coast Stadium in Viera

Players Out of Options

John Lannan's Fate

Bryce Harper's Attitude and Skill

Rick Ankiel's Signing

... and much more.

Subscribe to and rate our podcast on iTunes or download it if you don't use iTunes.


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