Today was a busy day for Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo, as well as Nationals MLB.com beat writer Bill Ladson's twitter account. Only several hours after introducing starting pitcher Jason Marquis as a new member of our rotation, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Nationals were close to a one-year deal with long time bullpen hand Eddie Guardado:

"The Nationals are nearing a one-year deal with left-handed reliever Eddie Guardado, multiple major league sources told FOXSports.com.

Guardado went 1-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 48 relief outings for the Rangers this year. His role in the Washington bullpen isn’t yet clear, but he is expected to pitch in the seventh inning or later.

His signing won’t preclude the Nationals for signing closer Matt Capps, one source said. The Nationals are among the finalists to sign Capps after he was non-tendered by Pittsburgh earlier this month."

Analysis: Let's make one thing clear, at the age of 39, Guardado's arm is just about useless. His 4.46 ERA last year is deceiving when you look at his overwhelming 6.10 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching), and his rather low .260 BABIP. So really his 4.46 ERA was a product of luck, and good defense behind him. However, this likely isn't why the Nationals signed Eddie. As Morosi points out in his report, Guardado has long been considered one of the better bullpen mentors in baseball. He's been around, and he knows a lot about being a professional, and apparently about teaching pitchers how to

John Paul Morosi reported tonight that according to league sources, the Nationals are very close to signing a one-year deal with the former close. Guardado made 48 appearances with the Rangers last year, posting a 4.46 ERA. Guardado is 39 years old.

Washington Nationals Headed to Playoffs in 2010, The Hardball Times

“Having a mentor to work with the young pitchers can be valuable, and Marquis is young enough himself to do just that while furthering his career. This signing brings to note a common refrain repeated yearly: why spend the money on Marquis if they're going nowhere? If the Nationals are a 77-loss team, why spend the money to bring them to a 75-loss team? Answer: It's not that simple. You still need bodies out there to compete. What if their internal options were lousy? How about signing cheaper alternatives -- they're cheaper because they're riskier. Maybe they're not projected to be a good mentor (Erik Bedard would scare me in that role) or just not good, period.”-Evan Brunell

Nationals Sign Jason Marquis, Fangraphs

“But here’s the rub. What exactly is the point of spending $4 million for a win when you’re the Nationals? The team currently has maybe seventy-something win talent and they’re well on their way to becoming basement dwellers in the NL East yet again. Signing an innings-eater such as Marquis to a contract like this makes zero sense; all he does is makes the Nationals slightly less bad than they were a year ago.”-Erik Manning

Thoughts on Marquis Signing, Nats Journal

The deal for Marquis – two years, $15 million – fits quite squarely under the category already established this offseason for respectable (but occasionally perplexing) veteran starters. Brad Penny received a one-year, $7.5 million contract from St. Louis. Rich Harden received a one-year, $7.5 million contract from Texas. Marquis gives you more consistency and less upside than either, but for a team in need of innings/reliability, that’s probably a worthy trade-off.- Chico Harlan

Nationals sign Jason Marquis…Matt Capps Next?, Federal Baseball

“The second big signing of the winter for Washington, following close on the heels of the much-maligned two-year deal extended to future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, the Nationals' deal with Marquis has already drawn similar scorn, with most of it the "why sign players when you won't compete this season" variety, which is usually in reality the bitter rant of a fan who thinks (most often incorrectly) that his or her own team is just one pitcher away from competing with the game's elite, and thus doesn't want to see any player "wasted" on a perennial doormat like the Washington franchise. This makes Nationals fans happy! (ed. note - "Some who don't like the deal think Marquis walks too many...His 3.3 BB/9 ranked as the 10th highest amongst starters in the NL last season, these folks might have an argument.")”- Ed Chigliak

Jason Marquis to the Washington Post

"Just coming to an organization that started making moves to brighten their future, I feel like being part of that could be something special," Marquis said. Stephen "Strasburg could be something special. [John] Lannan has been great the last two years. Pudge [Rodríguez] to mentor. I just wanted to be a part of something where they were showing they were going in the right direction, and also something where they wanted you to be a part of it."

The Nationals announced today that they will sign 31-year-old right-handed-pitcher Jason Marquis to a two-year, $15 million dollar deal. The signing fills one of the needs General Manager Mike Rizzo established at the beginning of the off-season; to acquire a top of the rotation starter.

Marquis earned $9.875 million last season at the back end of a three-year $21 million contract that he signed with the Cubs in 2006. Assuming Marquis makes $7.5 million next season (half of his 15 total), he will be taking 24% pay decrease with the Nationals a year after earning his first all-star appearance and tying his career high in wins with 15. It’s interesting that Marquis would sign a decreased deal the year after his career year, especially since pitching is at such a premium this winter.

This could have happened several reasons. First, he may have just genuinely wanted to pitch in Washington. Marquis has had a history of pitching poorly in the second half for teams that are in contention, pressure can get to some people, and he wouldn’t have to worry about that in D.C.. Or, secondly, it’s possible that other teams just saw something they didn’t like, even in what was a good year for Marquis.

UPDATE 3:50: MASN'S Byron Kerr spoke with Nationals Pitcher Jason Bergmann,  who said:

"I am excited that we are able to add a starting pitcher of his caliber. It is a good day for our team and our fan base. It shows the league that the Nats are serious about getting better and contending. Marquis is a top of rotation starter that can go deep into games. He was an all star last year and is a ground ball pitcher. He is a veteran presence on our pitching staff and can be a mentor for our younger players."

UPDATE 3:36: Mark Fiensand tweeted the Nationals signed Marquis for two years, $15 million, pending a physical.

These numbers, if true, represent a very interesting change from conventional thought and the belief in the "Nats Tax." Once news broke that Marquis had chosen the Nationals, the immediate belief was that the club must have offered him the third year that other suitors, like the New York Mets, had not. Instead, Marquis genuinely chose to go to Washington over other teams, which certainly is a big development here. Things are changing in D.C.

2:15: MASN Sports reported this afternoon that the Washington Nationals have reached an agreement with free-agent starting pitcher Jason Marquis. Marquis, 31, went 15-13 for the Colorado Rockies last season while earning his first career All-Star appearance.

Marquis pitched 213 innings in 2009, a number that the Nationals found attractive as they were in the market for a pitcher who could eat up innings in their rotation. Jason finished the season with a 4.04 ERA and struck out 115 batters while allowing 80 walks. Marquis had the best FIP of his career last year at 4.10, and the highest ground ball percentage at 55.6%.

Marquis numbers as a whole can be deceiving however. His first half of 2009, which earned him the All-Star appearance, was much better than his second.

1st Half: 11-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .264 BAA
2nd Half: 4-7, 4.56 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .284 BAA

Projections for 2010:

Bill James: 4.37 ERA, 12-11 W-L, 202 IP, 3.43 BB/9, .268 BAA
CHONE:   4.73 ERA, W-L PNA , 177 IP, 3.65 BB/9, PNA
ZiPS:          4.44 ERA, 11-12 W-L, 184.1 IP, 3.25 BB/9, PNA

Each year GM's from across the league come together and meet in one place and talk hardcore baseball, these are the Winter Meetings. It's the Black Friday of baseballs shopping season, and the springboard that leads into MLB's Hot Stove offseason.

The meetings wrapped up last week and to review the action The Nats Blog is going to get reviews from top blogs across the league. Today will be the NL East, here will be the schedule for the rest of the week:

12/16-NL Central, 12/17-NL West, 12/18-AL East, 12/19-AL Central, 12/20 AL West, American League 12/19

According to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal:

"Nats making a strong run at Garland. Wants 3 yrs. Nats would prefer two. Other possibilities for the Nats: Marquis, D. Davis"

Earlier this month, now former Nats beat-writer Chico Harlan wrote in Nationals Journal that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had interest in Garland:

"Regarding Garland, the free-agent pitcher. GM Mike Rizzo this afternoon admitted that his team was in the running. "Yeah, we have interest in Jon Garland," he said. "We've had it the whole time. He's one of the 10 names we've been talking about throughout the whole winter."

Analysis: Garland, 30, will be entering his 11th year as a starting pitcher in the league in 2010. Breaking into the league at only 20, many considered Garland a good prospect for the White Sox, but it seems that he hasn't made much progress over the years. In his last 8 MLB seasons, Garland has won between at least 10 games each year. He has had an ERA above four all but one year, and an ERA below five every year.

His K/9 has ranged between 4.12 and 5.23, his K/BB between 1.35 and 2.73, and his BAA between .257 and .299. He has pitched no less than 192.2 and no more than 221.0.

Quite simply, Garland has been the epitome of consistency, however mediocre that consistent level may be. Thats a trait that is attractive to the Nationals in their current state of the franchise. Last year they had trouble depending on anyone on their pitching staff outside of John Lannan. Their young pitchers were erratic and often injured, and the Nationals would like to strive for some sort of consistency to help anchor the youthful staff.

The crux of this deal seems to come down to how many years will be put on it. Garland wants a three year deal, but the best he could muster last season was a one year $7.25 million contract with Arizona. Considering Randy Wolf just signed a three year deal worth $9.5 million a year, Garland probably wont be able to get more than $7 million a year in a multi-year deal. The Nationals could probably clinch this deal by offering him two years, and as long as they don't throw too much money at him, it wouldn't be a terrible idea for them to secure their rotation.

According to the New York Daily News, the World Champion New York Yankees have signed former Washington Nationals first baseman, Nick Johnson, to a one-year $5.5 million contract:

"The Yankees finalized a one-year deal, $5.5 million deal with first baseman/DH Nick Johnson Friday, effectively ending Johnny Damon's tenure in pinstripes.

The deal will not be officially announced until sometime next week after Johnson completes a physical.

According to baseball sources, the 31-year old Johnson had more lucrative offers from a couple of other teams but wanted to return to the Yankees for whom he began his career in 2001."

Analysis: Johnson will replace Johnny Damon in the second spot in the Yankees line up. While Johnson has considerably less speed than Damon (Johnson is arguably the slowest guy in the league), his on base percentage, .426, was far higher than Damon's .365, which is the arguing point New York is standing by. Let's not forget however, that Johnson also accepted a deal for only one year, and $7.5 million less than Damon was asking for.

Don't be blinded by Johnson's on-base percentage however. While in his last two healthy seasons he has reached .426 and .428 in OBP, his slugging percentage is continually declining from .530 in 2006, to .431 in 2008 (he missed all of 2007 with an injury), to a measly .405 in 2009. While we know that OBP is arguably more important than slugging, his wOBA has gone down year after year as well; .405 in 2006, .374 in 2008, and .373 in 2009. The bottom line is that while he may have the same eye he had in 2006, perhaps the injuries have stripped him of power and bat speed.

A look at Johnson's last two healthy seasons:
2006: .290/.428/.520, 23 HR, 46 2B, .404 wOBA, 5.3 WAR
2009: .291/.426/.405, 8 HR, 24 2B, .373 wOBA, 2.4 WAR

Johnson of course will be helped by several factors that hurt him when he was with the Nationals. First he will be a left handed hitter in the new Yankee Stadium, which is far more hitter friendly than the new Nats park which is relatively spacious. Second, Johnson will certainly benefit from playing the DH position. A constant injury threat, Johnson can focus on being a professional hitter as a DH, and will not have to worry about injuries.

For the Nationals, this deal seems to justify their decision to trade Nick back in July. It has been reported that Johnson had received better offers from other teams, but that he chose to take less money to return to the Yankees. The Nationals would not have received such a deal from Johnson, and likely would have had to pay upwards of $6-7 million.

In return, the Nationals received pitching prospect Aaron Thompson. Thompson, 22, is a former first round pick for the Marlins and pitched relatively well in his six starts for the Nationals double-A affiliate last summer. Thompson posted a 3.31 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 32 innings pitched.

With the Nationals in the thick of the free-agency signing period, Washington finds themselves in a familiar place of sorting out the weeds. The Nationals, a club that lost 100 games for the second straight season, are attempting to attract players who other teams may deem too unpredictable, or too much of a risk. These are the types of players a last place team can attain, therefor, the strategy is figuring out who will fit the bill, and who will be a waste.

Below are the 2010 projections from Bill James, CHONE, and ZiPS, which were attained from Fan Graphs, Baseball Projection, and Baseball Think Factory respectively.

Matt Capps

According to Bill Ladson on MLB.com, free-agent bullpen hand Matt Capps has selected the Washington Nationals as a, "finalist." The former Pirates closer, who has collected 67 saves in his five-year career, had been courted by many teams this offseason, and apparently he likes the direction the Nationals are moving in.

He told Ladson over the phone:

"They had a great offensive team [this past season]," Capps said. "If they put some pitching out there, they can play with anybody. I feel it would be a good situation and a good opportunity for me, personally. I already like the moves they already made in trying to be competitive next year and beyond. Ivan Rodriguez is a Hall of Fame catcher. To have the opportunity to throw to him and learn from him, I definitely think that is a big deal.

"It shows the direction the Nationals are trying to go. They signed him to a two-year deal - it's just not a fill-in. It shows that they are investing in the future. They want to do what's right, and they want to win."

Analysis:

To me, it is no surprise that the Nationals are on Capps finalist list, but unfortunately, I don't think it has anything to do with winning. Capps criteria in selecting a team is strongly footed in two factors, the opportunity for a multi-year deal, and the opportunity to close. It seems with the signing of Rodriguez, and the non-tendering of MacDougal, that both of these criteria would be filled with the Nationals.

The pure fact that the Nationals are willing to offer both those things is reason enough for Capps to put Washington on his finalists list. However, Capps can use the Nationals offer to up the anti on other teams, teams he may be more interested in playing for. Just like with Mark Teixiera last year, the Nats can drive up the price, and Capps can ride the wave. This, of course, doesn't mean that Capps has no intention on going to Washington. But the Nationals know they have to pay a premium for players, a Nats tax, and agents know it's good to get them in on the bidding war.

Why the Nationals would want to give Capps a multi-year deal I don't know. Closers tend to have about a four-to-five year shelf life and Capps seemed to hit the wall last season. Of course, there are your exceptions, your Percivals, your Mariano Rivera's, but Billy Beane has showed us that you should develop your closers and let them go. They're just not worth the money.