Nationals Trade Talk: More Dunn and Willingham Updates E-mail
Written by Ted Youngling   
Wednesday, 28 July 2010 22:37
Its time for your daily Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham trade update.

Several sources continue to say that the Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, and Colorado Rockies are all showing interest in the Nationals first baseman.

However, the teams that seem to covet him the most are the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and the Chicago White Sox, who according to SB Nations Jon Bois would replace the struggling Andruw Jones for the teams DH spot. The Yankees and Rays would also love to have his services as the teams vie for position in the AL East.

For weeks, Washington's other slugger, Josh Willingham, has generated a lot of interest from the Atlanta Braves, but now that Scott Podsednik has landed with the Dodgers, the other teams in pursuit of an outfielder will now be turning to Willingham, such as the Rays, Boston Red Sox, and San Francisco Giants.

Analysis:

If Dunn were to leave town, it would have to be an American League team, despite his great bat, he is too much of a liability in the field. I like him with either the White Sox or Yankees. Chicago needs another bat to help solidify their first place position, and can you imagine the type of moon shots Dunn would hit in pinstripes?

The Braves could certainly use Willingham, Atlanta has been platooning Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske for a majority of the season and could use the stability at the position. He would also be an interesting fit with the Giants and would certainly be an upgrade from Pat Burrell in left field.

 
Video: Strasburg's Scratch and Batista's Performance E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Wednesday, 28 July 2010 12:17
 
Swinging For A Contract, Dunn's New Approach At The Plate This Season E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Wednesday, 28 July 2010 01:20

042109-208_adam_dunnAdam Dunn's talent has long been a divisive issue. Some have looked at his high strikeout totals, and traditionally low batting average, and written him off. Others have pointed to his on base percentage, and his true-outcome totals, and said he's a Renascence Man. Yet despite how he has been perceived throughout his nine-year career, one thing everyone has agreed on has been his consistency in his output and his approach, that is, until now.

If the season ended today Adam Dunn would have, by far, the highest batting average in a single season in his career. At .281 he is batting 30 points above his career average of .251, yet despite his improved contact with the bat, Dunn's on base percentage is 30 points lower than it was just last season.

Why? The answer is, Adam Dunn is swinging more...much, more.  Perhaps even, swinging for a contract.

In 2009 Dunn had a BB% of 17.4%. Walking was his calling card, he was a man who would swing and miss a lot, but he made sure the pitches he was swinging at were his pitches. That number is down to 11.4% this season. With only 46 walks on the year, Dunn is on pace to finish with less than 100 walks for the first time since 2003 when he only played in 116 games.

At first look one might think that maybe he is just being more aggressive early in the count, which could result in his improved batting average while seeing his walk rate go down. However the data shows that Dunn is instead chasing far more pitches. His career O-Swing% (pitches he swings at outside the strike zone) is 17.9 percent, this year his O-Swing% is 28.7%! Almost 38 percent higher than his career average, meaning Dunn is swinging

It's not that Dunn's judgment has gone out the window either, his swinging at 68.2% of pitches in the strike zone too, by far the highest mark of his career. In general he is swinging 45.6% of the time total, which is up from his 40.8% career mark.

So why after a stellar 10 year career is Dunn completely changing his approach at the plate, the one thing that made him truly unique? Like most things in this game, my guess is that it was about "the Benjamin's."

 
Revisiting Mike Morse, How Good Can He Be? E-mail
Written by Bryce Stucki   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 21:24

250px-mike_morseAt least once on this blog and much more often in my daily conversations I have argued that the Nationals need to find a way to get utility player/outfielder Mike "The Code" Morse more PAs. Not only does Morse have the 2nd highest HR/PA ratio (0.0674) in the Majors (behind apparent powerhouse Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays), he also has a great looking wOBA (.438), ISO (.277), OBP (.393), and AVG (.349).

A serious critique of this argument, however, is that Morse does not have many PAs, which is true, so it is difficult to take his performance without a grain of salt. Upon deeper investigation this a very real concern. Though Morse's .383 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is over two standard deviations above the qualified ML average, this is still not necessarily an indicator that Morse is getting lucky. After all, hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers, there are a few hitters at the same BABIP level as Morse this season (like Josh Hamilton, Justin Morneau, and Austin Jackson), and Mike Morse does have a career .365 BABIP.

Things do become troubling when we consider a statistic known as xBABIP, or expected BABIP. Though my version of xBABIP is quite crude-I think it only has something like a .4-.5 correlation with actual BABIP-it is worth thinking about as it predicts that Morse should have a BABIP of .314 based on the percentage of his hits that go for line drives, fly balls, and ground balls. The difference between Morse's xBABIP and his BABIP is quite large; two standard deviations above the average qualified ML difference. As for Morse's career .365 BABIP, Morse's career xBABIP is only .328.

What this indicates is that Morse's AVG, and as a result his wOBA and OBP, are inflated and would likely fall if he were given more playing time. Presenting another problem for Morse is his low BB% of 5.6% which is quite far below the league average of 9.2%. Morse is swinging outside of the zone much more often this season than he usually does (40.3% O-Swing this year versus 28.9% career), which strongly correlates with a worse BB%, so his BB% will probably rise the more he plays as well.

Morse's power surge is also an aberration. His career rate of .025 HR/PA is well below his current line which is actually remarkably close to Babe Ruth's career rate. I realize I am crushing a lot of dreams by writing this but Morse is not Ruth. Morse's barrage of home runs is also inflating his ISO which we should expect to come closer to his career .147 mark the more he plays.

For the sake of completeness I should also mention that Morse is not particularly good at fielding (-1.8 UZR/150 0 DRS in the OF career) nor is he playing the outfield well this year with a -3.1 UZR rating and a -1 DRS.

After ostensibly ripping Morse a new one, however, I am still inclined to say that he should be playing everyday. I think the Nationals would net more production (defense included) with Roger Bernadina in center, Morse in right, and Nyjer Morgan on the bench. I know this is almost certainly not going to happen, but it is worth considering in light of how well Morse has played this season, inflated or not. At the very least, The Code would make a very decent replacement for Adam Dunn if the Nationals trade him, which I hope they will. But that is an issue that will have to wait for another article entirely.

 
Dunn and Willingham Rumor Mill E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 15:15

83f1b909d62d34b6d334e03f9cbae7e9-getty-95688188_jw022_washington_n Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that several new teams have moved into the running for Adam Dunn, hinting that National League West teams such as the pitching heavy Giants and Padres may be interested.

According to various sources, the teams that seem most interested in Dunn are still American League contenders, likely a result of Dunn's poor glove. Current American League teams in the hunt are the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, and Tampa Bay Rays.

While the future of the slugger is in the air, one thing that is clear is that the Nationals seem set on keeping at least one of their sluggers, meaning that both Willingham and Dunn will not be traded.

Jason Stark Reports:

"We're hearing the Nationals, in the end, could wind up trading Josh Willingham instead of Dunn. Among the many teams interested in Willingham: Atlanta, Boston and Tampa Bay. If the Nationals do deal a bat, they would either trade Dunn or Willingham, but not both."

Analysis:

While Willingham is still under team control in 2011, he will likely receive a big raise in arbitration, making him another pricey piece for Washington. In the end, if the Nationals want to keep Dunn, they may not be able to do so with Willingham around, at least not comfortably. It may then make more sense to trade Willingham and replace him in the winter with a cheaper free-agent option.

Willingham will also likely be easier to trade. The asking price for the Hammer is lower and while the slugger is putting up great numbers this year (.273/.401/.479) the outfielder has one more year of control on him, meaning he will be more than a two-month rental. Conversely, if a team wants him as a two-month rental, they can refuse to offer him arbitration and set him free this winter.

 
Nationals Trade Talk: Capps and Guzman E-mail
Written by Ted Youngling   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 14:41

With the trade deadline less then a week away, he are the latest rumblings surrounding the Nationals Matt Capps and Cristian Guzman.

Matt Capps: The Nationals only All-Star representative is now being linked with the Twins, giving them the much needed closer they've been missing since Joe Nathan went down in spring training. Former National Jon Rauch inherited the closing duties and has a 3.22 ERA with 20 saves this season. Rauch has had a solid year thus far but he certainly doesn't make closing look easy, Capps would be a serious upgrade at the position, putting him on the first contending team of his career.

Cristian Guzman: The Phillies interest in Guzman makes sense, they have been haunted by the injury bug all season and have lacked a reliable fielder or hitter coming off the bench in late game situations. Guzman is a sure thing against lefties with a .336 average and would be a valuable asset not just to Philadelphia, but any other contender. Also, you can plug him into second base, shortstop, or right field, which are some of the positions that having been giving the Phillies their problems this year.

 
NL East Update: The one where the Mets may fire Manuel...again E-mail
Written by Ted Youngling   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 14:16
With the Mets not performing up to expectations, Mets Blog gives us the latest on what the team plans to do with their coaching staff.

Regardless of what happens from here on out, I believe that the Mets should stick with manager Jerry Manuel for the remainder of the season. This isn't the first time there has been chatter about replacing him, and several sources have said that if he were to leave, Bob Melvin would take over. Melvin had previously managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003 and 2004, as well as the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 to midway through 2009. To me this just sounds like a useless temporary fix, Melvin just doesn't have the type of personality that can "light a fire" under a ball club and lead the team to a post-season run, especially in New York. Let Manuel finish what he started, see how he and the team responds, then make the decision at the end of the year.

Fish Stripes drops some interesting knowledge on what to expect from the Marlins at the trade deadline.

The Marlins situation is interesting, similar to the Nationals, we have heard all year that the team will move some of their big name players and be one of the most active teams before the deadline, only to begin to hear rumors that they will keep their team intact. I have a gut feeling that names like Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco will stay in Florida, simply because of the team's new stadium coming in 2012. The team would much rather open up the ball park with established players as opposed to scrubs no one has ever heard of. If the Marlins do extend Uggla for three more years, we could be looking at a pretty good team by pairing him with Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and Josh Johnson. But knowing the unpredictable decision making of this franchise...anything can happen.

The Braves are first place in the NL East, but that doesn't mean there not looking to upgrade.

Centerfield is the number one priority for this team, and it sounds like it's going to be Cody Ross or bust. It's just hard to imagine the Braves moving on without addressing this issue. At this point, Nate McLouth is practically running himself out of town, the guy is hitting .168 and has shown no signs of improvement all year, something has to happen. Other than that, Atlanta's won't be looking to upgrade any other positions. Their starting rotation is great, their bullpen is one of the tops in the league, and their lineup has been overachieving...what else could you ask for?

 
Catching up with the Braves: Talking Chop E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 08:31

talkingchopTo help preview our upcoming series against the Braves, I sat down with Scott Coleman from one of the top Braves blogs on the net, Talking Chop, to discuss the Braves season so far. We also answered some questions for them, which we will post when they become available.

TNB: What has been the secret to the Braves success this year? Going into the season many considered the Braves a great empire on their way out, but at 57-41 the club is riding high.

Talking Chop: To be honest, they do a little bit of everything. The offense doesn't hit for much power, but they lead baseball in team OBP and walks. Guys like Eric Hinske, Omar Infante and Brooks Conrad have been huge for us at the plate and no one expect that. Martin Prado, who's been just incredible at the plate, and Jason Heyward form the best 1-2 combo in baseball and we've gotten solid production from Chipper, McCann and Glaus in the middle of our lineup.

Our pitching has also been very good. Our bullpen, up until the last week, has been lights out. Billy Wagner has been great in his final season and guys like Peter Moylan, Takashi Saito, Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty have all been huge for us. Our rotation has been pretty consistent all season, and it got a big boost once Jair Jurrjens returned from the DL a few weeks ago. Guys like Kris Medlen and Jonny Venters are having incredible years and they've played huge roles for us so far.

TNB: How big of an impact has Chipper Jones had on the team this year, despite his diminished skills?

Talking Chop: This is Chipper's team, and he's the un-questioned leader in the clubhouse. He was pretty bad in April and May, but once retirement talk came up in June, he's really stepped it up. He still controls the strikezone better than most in baseball and continues to have a great OBP. My wish is to hit him 2nd and Heyward 3rd, but hey, I'm not Bobby Cox and don't have the 4th most wins in baseball history.

TNB: How good can Jason Heyward get?

 
Zimmermann Gets Rocked For Seven In Rehab E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Monday, 26 July 2010 21:11

ph2009052203976While the nation watched Matt Garza throw a no-hitter on ESPN tonight, Washington Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann struggled for the first time in his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Ben Goessling reports:

"Not a good night for Zimmermann. He gave up seven runs, six of them earned, on seven hits over five innings. He gave up a couple homers, which accounted for most of the runs. Reader Riverdog, who was at the game in Hagerstown, said Zimmermann looked good at times, particularly in a five-pitch fourth inning, but didn't locate the ball well most of the night. But it's a rehab start, and the more important thing is whether ZImmermann comes out of it healthy."

Analysis:

Zimmermann had been dominant in his first four starts in his rehab assignment. In 13 innings pitched the 24-year-old had allowed no earned runs and struck out 13. The righty had been pitching so well that there was even talk of bringing the former top arm in the Nationals system to start in place of the injured J.D. Martin at the end of this week. With Zimmermann's poor performance, the Nats are likely to hold off on that prospect. They don't want to rush one of the most important arms in the system to help their future number two get a few more starts in the show in 2010.

This is likely just a hiccup, expect "Jay-Z" to return to form in his next start, and find his way up to Washington in August.

 
Nationals, White Sox, and Diamondbacks looking at a deal, is Edwin Jackson Enough ? E-mail
Written by William Yoder   
Monday, 26 July 2010 12:02

f43a418481e7ed102a5dc400bec1cfe0-getty-95688189cp021_st_louis_cardESPN.COM's Jayson Stark reports that the Nationals are still working hard to sign Dunn to an extension, but if they can not sign him to a deal before the deadline, he will likely be shipped. He also reports that the club may be working on a three-way deal with the White Sox and the Diamondbacks which would bring starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to Washington:

"Rumblings continue to surface about a possible three-team deal involving the Nationals, White Sox and Diamondbacks that would send Edwin Jackson to Washington, Dunn to Chicago and a bunch of young pitchers to Arizona."

Jackson is 6-9 with a 5.01 ERA this season in 20 starts for Arizona, posting 101 strikeouts to 58 walks in 129 innings. The 26-year-old Jackson is coming off of a strong season with Detroit where he went 13-9 with a 3.62  ERA

Analysis:

Are Edwin Jackson's inconsistent and recently poor numbers worth the talent of an Adam Dunn?

 
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