To get Washington fans ready for the coming baseball season, all spring (err...and Winter) I will be interviewing a blogger from each team in the league. To continue our journey I talked with Mercurial Outfielder from Another Cubs Blog, one of the top Cubs blogs on the net. The Cubs are constantly looking towards next year, so lets take a look at what Another Cubs Blog says about this coming season:

The Nats Blog: Can the Cubs compete for that elusive World Series Title in 2010? Why?

Mercurial Outfielder: In a word, no. I mean, there's always some minuscule statistical chance that they could contend, but there's no reason to expect them to do so.  The reason, simply put, is that the talent just isn't there.  At the start of the 2009 season, by our WAR calculations, the Cubs were a 92-95 win team on paper, depending on if we used Rally's WAR or Fangraphs WAR. OF course, that didn't pan out, and I think the 2010 offseason has seen a classic case of over-general managing. The Cubs let 4-6 wins walk out the door when they refused to re-sign Harden and traded Bradley, and they haven't really replaced them. Marlon Byrd is the biggest acquisition so far, and even the most optimistic projections have him ~2 WAR. Moving Fukudome to RF helps defensively, as Fukudome is an excellent defensive RF, but having his bat in the lineup every day doesn't do much for me. Soriano is...well, who knows? He was having a typical Soriano season until mid-May when he smashed into a wall and banged up his knee, but I think there's a lot of uncertainty there. If we can chalk up his struggles to the injury, then there's some reason to be optimistic about a return to form--but I'm not sure we can really do that.  There's a very good chance that Soriano will never again be the offensive force he was when the Cubs acquired him.  Having a healthy Ramirez back helps, and Lee looks resurgent, but Baker is, IMO, a big question mark at 2B. A lot is riding on him continuing to hit.  As for the rotation, Zambrano, outside of the completely useless W-L stat, had a pretty typical season in 2009. Dempster should continue to be steady. Lilly's coming off a shoulder injury, so trying to project him, is, IMHO, an exercise in futility.

And here's where the real problems with this team start.

There have been numerous reports recently that the Nationals may be looking to move Josh Willingham within the next several weeks. While Willingham likely can bring in a player of solid value, he is under the Nationals control for the next two seasons and is relatively cheap for his level of output.

However, Adam Dunn, 30, is in the final year of his contract, and is likely at the peak of his career. While Dunn has been an incredibly productive player for the Nationals, he likely wont be able to sustain his success much further into the future, and it will cost them a pretty penny to extend his contract (if they even can). Dunn can help the Nationals franchise the most by being traded for quality parts to be used for building the team of tomorrow.

Adam Dunn is a conundrum in many ways, while his bat may be his most valuable asset, going into the future the biggest variable in his overall value may be his horrific lack of defense.  Fangraphs rated his offensive value as 35.5 Runs Above Average last season, where his defensive value was 36.3 Runs BELOW Average. This resulted in the slugger only being worth 1.2 Wins last season. However, if you remove his defensive liabilities he is clearly more valuable.  This is why the Nationals need to trade him to the American League.

A look around the American League at the starting DH's shows its pretty slim pickings and that if he were traded he would almost instantly be the best DH in baseball.

Name   / OPS

Baltimore: Luke Scott .828
Toronto: Randy Ruiz .682
Tampa Bay: Pat Burrell .682
Boston: David Ortiz .794
New York: Nick Johnson .831

Minnesota: Jason Kubel .907
Detroit: Jeff Larish .730
Chicago: Andruw Jones .782
Kansas City: Alex Gordon .703
Cleveland: Travis Hafner .826

LA Angels: Hideki Matsui .876
Texas: Vladimir Guerrero .794
Seattle: Ken Griffey Jr./Milton Bradley .735/.775
Oakland: Jack Cust .773

Adam Dunn .928

What do you think? Should the Nationals trade him before the season or at all?

The Nationals signed three players today to minor deals today.

Chris Duncan - 1B/OF - Minor League Deal

Duncan was a productive part of the 2006 World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals in his rookie season. In just 90 games Duncan hit .296/.363/.589 with 22 homers and 43 RBI en-route to winning the 2006 National League Rookie of the Year. His 12.72 AB/HR rate was third in the majors behind only David Ortiz and Ryan Howard.

2007 saw a 26-year-old Duncan return for a solid sophomore season where the outfielder/first baseman batted .259/.354/.480 with 21 homers and 70 RBI in 127 games played. While his slugging percentage slipped and strikeout rate rose eight percent, his walk percent went up three percent and he finally had a full major league season under his belt.

Duncan battled injuries in 2008/2009 and saw his numbers fall dramatically. While defensively he may be a worse outfielder than Dunn, there is a chance he could be solid defensive back up first baseman for the Nationals.

Tyler Walker - RHP - Major League Deal

Tyler 'The Gobbler' Walker had arguably his best season in 2009 where he posted a 3.06 ERA in 32 appearances for the Phillies. Walker posted career bests with a 3.00 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 BB/9 mark.

In 2005 Walker served as the closer for the San Francisco Giants after Armando Benitez suffered an injury, and closed 23 of 28 games successfully. After season ending Tommy John surgery he lost some of the velocity of his fastball and never served as a closer permanently again. Now at the age of 33 Walker tosses a fastball that averages 91 MPH, a low 80's slider, and a high 70's change-up. The slider has been Walkers bread-and-butter pitch over the last two years, and he throws it nearly 40 % of the time.

Chuck James - RHP - Minor League Deal

"James, to hear those who've been around him tell it, is to a good attitude what Marion Barry is to ascetic restraint. He blew away the Sally League last season, but occasionally had trouble with his control. Despite his semi-gaudy K rate, his stuff is average, and he projects as no better than a back-end starter at the highest level. There's a good chance he'll one day be on the business end of a highly publicized clubhouse ass-beating. So that's something."- Baseball Prospectus

I did some research to try and learn some more about Chuck James. He's a fly ball pitcher who throws in the high-80's. He's had moderate success for Atlanta but a bad 2008 which found him non-tendered. I couldn't find why he didn't pitch in 2009.

I did find out however that:

-In the weeks before the MLB draft James broke both his wrists attempting to jump off of a roof in to a swimming pool.

-In college he got bit by a copperhead snake and never sought medial treatment.

-Was denied a promotion in 2004 after his exploits in a brawl in the Sally League All-Star Game.

Bill Ladson of MLB.com reported Thursday that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is interested in acquiring DH/1B Mike Jacobs:

"The Nationals were one of the first clubs I talked about with my agent," Jacobs said. "I feel I would be a good fit in that lineup, especially with what they already have there. It's a pretty good lineup. It's a place that I would love to go."
Asked if he was willing to come off the bench with the Nationals, Jacobs said, " At this point, I'm not sure. Coming off a down year, you obviously [have] to prove yourself again. When you look at my season when I hit 32 home runs and drove in 90-something runs, the reason I was able to do that was because I was given at-bats to do it.
"I truly believe, as a power hitter, you need to have your at-bats. If you don't get your at-bats consistently, you are not going to be as productive as you need to be. I feel I'm pretty young. I feel like I have a lot left in the tank. I need that opportunity to get those at-bats. If [being a reserve] was the only way, then I would have to make that decision."

Analysis:

In 2008 Jacobs did hit 32 homers and drive in 97 runs, however he also only hit .247 and got on base at .299. Things were way worse in 2009 as Jacobs only mustered 19 homers, batted .228, and got on base at .297. These numbers are pretty awful. While power is always at a premium, no one can get away with hitting only .228 without getting on base at a high rate. He is no poor man's Adam Dunn.

Furthermore, I feel that what the Nationals should be looking for (if not a middle infielder) is a strong defensive replacement at first base for late inning situations. It's no secret that last year Adam Dunn was a black hole at the position, but why the Nationals would want to bring in another is beyond me. Jacobs has a career UZR/150 of -9, his defense was so poor that in 2009 he DH'd all but 15 games.

Advanced:
2008: 6.9 BB%, 24.9 K%, .266 ISO, .338 wOBA, 107 wRC+
2009: 8.6 BB%, 30.4 K%, .173 ISO, .305 wOBA, 83 wRC+

Your move Mike Rizzo.

Jose Offerman gets banned from Dominican Baseball after punching umpire in the face

Former MLB all-star Jose Offerman punched first-base umpire Daniel Rayburn after being ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Offerman was detained after the incident, and subsequently banned from Dominican Republic Baseball. This was not Offerman's first stint with on-the-field violence. The former second baseman faced charges in 2007 after attacking two players with a bat.

Reigning Cy Young Winner Tim Lincecum has a busy day in court

On the same day the two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum had to file arbitration papers, he also had to pay a $513 fine to resolve marijuana charges in Washington State:

"The pitcher for the San Francisco Giants originally faced two misdemeanor charges of marijuana and drug paraphernalia possession stemming from a traffic stop on Oct. 30. The charges were reduced to a civil infraction.

Lincecum appeared in Clark County District Court before Judge Darvin Zimmerman on Tuesday morning.

He paid a speeding ticket separately."

The biggest story in all of this was that people were actually surprised that someone who looks like Lincecum smoked pot.

Peter Gammons reports, Jason Bay has bad knee's, sorry Mets

Gammons reported this week that the Red Sox and Bay had agreed to a four-year, $60 million deal during 2009 before a disagreement on the health of Bay's knee's caused them to tear the contract up. The New York Mets however either did not know about these knee problems or were too desperate to care.

Other News:

Ben Sheets Impresses Scouts

Joel Pineiro Signs With Angels

Random Video Of The Week:

First person Tetris is amazing, check it out.

Just under one month ago free agent pitcher Jason Marquis signed a 2-year, $15 million contract with the Washington Nationals. While some questioned the deal, many considered it a good price for an innings eater who was a second tier free agent. He would go to a team that desperately needed starting pitching and would (hopefully) put some ease on the bullpen.

What made the Marquis deal look especially good for the Nationals was that the pitcher who many had one slot above him, Joel Pineiro, was making demands of 3-years for $30 million. Pineiro, of course, had a great year in 2009 under the tutelage of Dave Duncan and wanted to cash in after transforming himself into the top ground-ball pitcher in the league.

However as Pineiro's demands grew higher and higher, the Jason Marquis deal set the tone as no one wanted to give Pinerio too much more than what Marquis received. While the steady price-shelf surprised some, a look at the numbers revealed that 1. These players aren't all that different and 2. In the last three years Marquis has been a more consistent pitcher than Pineiro.

However after Marquis and Lackey signed, and then inevitably Adrolis Chapman, Pineiro remained on the market as the top starting pitcher available. That fact, paired with Chapman's recent $30 million cash-in, left Pineiro in great bargaining position as he could pin desperate teams like the Mets, Angels, and Cubs against each other in a bidding war for almost the same player the Nationals got for 2 years at $15 million.

Then...Ben Sheets happened:

"I was impressed," Mariners scout John Stearns said. "Ben was free and easy, throwing the ball really well with not too much effort. He had good velocity. I was especially impressed with his curve ball. He's got a plus major-league curve ball with a lot of depth to it. It looked to me like he was healthy, and health is the key issue here. I'm going to give him a strong recommendation to our organization.

With the big righty back in the picture, Pineiro quickly signed a 2-year $16 million deal with the Angels...Well he got what he wanted...more money than Marquis...

Lets take a look at the two pitchers over their career:

(Graphs created at Fan Graphs - The most useful stat site on the net)

As you can see the one place where Pineiro trumps Maquis is an improved control, which may have been what helped lead him to a more successful 2009 than Marquis. Their BABIP numbers have been almost identical, and while Pineiro led the majors in ground ball percentage in 2009, Marquis ranked right behind him as the third best ground ball pitcher in baseball.

When Chris Marrero was drafted he was considered to have one of the purest bats in the draft, the key was finding him a position. But with several injuries and failed attempts at position switches, some believe Marrero may have lost some of the pop in his bat.

At the age of 17 Marrero excelled batting .309 with an OBP of .374 in Rookie Ball. The next summer Marrero would continue his success at the plate splitting time between Hagerstown and Potomac hitting .275 with 23 home runs and 88 RBI. With his success in 2007 he was named the Nationals number one prospect by Baseball America and the number 27 prospect overall.

2007 Splits:
A- .293/.338/.545, 5.9 BB%, .173 OSP, 370 wOBA, 122 wRC+
A+- .259/.338/.431, 11.1 BB%, .173 ISO, .346 wOBA, 106 wRC+

Marrero was poised for a breakout year in 2008 which could have found him as a mid to late season  call up for the club if all went well. But things didn't go well for Marrero. After a slow start it seemed like he just could not get out of Dodge, well get out of Potomac. Through 70 games with the PNATS, Marrero only hit .250 with 11 home runs and a poor OBP of .325. While his K rate dropped 3% his BABIP dropped from .311 to a career low .278. His disappointing season came to an abrupt end in June when he broke his fibula taking him out for the rest of the season.

While it's not clear what caused the poor 2008 performance for Marrero some credit it to his position change from outfield to first, other attribute it to his significant weight gain.

"I was heavy. I didn't get fat, I just got really really strong. I came into 2008 at, like, 235 or something with 11 percent body fat. But I lost a little bit of my agility," Marrero told the Washington Post.

Slimmed down, 2009 was a key year for Marrero to show that he had finally adjusted to A ball and to flash the power that many had projected him to possess back when he was drafted as a 17-year-old. Marrero did not deliver however, spending the majority of his time in the town he had come all-to-familiar with, Potomac. He played 112 games for the P-Nats before being called up to a 23 game cup of coffee in Harrisburg. Combining between the two Marrero had solid averages, but showed little improvement in his power as he hit .284/.358/.452 with 17 homers an 27 doubles.

2009 Splits:
A+ .287/.360/.464, 9.2 BB%, .176 OSP, 371 wOBA, 129 wRC+
AA .267/.347/.387, 9.6 BB%, .120 ISO, .334 wOBA, 103 wRC+

While some may be getting discouraged with Marrero's lack of development, they must remember his age. Marrero will enter 2010 at only 20 years old, the age of most Juniors in college. While he has not grown exponentially in the last three years, he has hit relatively advanced pitching at a very young age. As most good players reach the majors around the age of 24, he still has four seasons realistically to master AA and AAA.

Furthermore, a look at Baseball Prospectus' player comps shows some very promising names. BP uses their similarity score to judge the likeness of players careers to previous players at the same stage in their career. A score of 50 or higher is very similar, a score of below 20 is barely similar.

Among those on the list:
2. Manny Ramirez, 48
8. Jeff Francoeur, 34
9. Paul Konerko, 33
11. Carlos Pena 30

That's some serious company. Lets wait and give Marrero a little bit more time.

To get Washington fans ready for the coming baseball season, all spring (err...and Winter) I will be interviewing a blogger from each team in the league. To continue our journey I talked with Jeff from Lookout Landing, one of the top Mariners blogs on the net. The Mariners are a fascinating team who went from a cellar dweller to a winning team in just one year, using many of the same tactics the Nationals have tried to implement this offseason. Lets take a look:

The Nats Blog: In 2008, the Nationals and the Mariners were the worst two teams in baseball. In 2009 the Nationals remained the worst team in baseball but the Mariners managed a 85-77 record. What can baseball fans expect to see from Seattle in 2010?

Lookout Landing: A similar level performance, but one that this time has them contend for the division. The Mariners have replaced everything they lost and then some, and with the Angels coming apart like the Soviet Union and the Rangers still being a little ways away, the competition is wide open. It'll be a team founded on - you guessed it - pitching and defense - but the pitching and defense look good enough to carry the M's a pretty long way. There's not a front office in baseball that hasn't at least considered the nightmare possibility of facing Felix and Lee in the playoffs.

TNB: A lot of people attribute the Mariners resurgence in 2010 to a commitment to defense and the emergence of Franklin Guitierrez as a defensively dominant center fielder. Many in Washington are hoping Nyjer Morgan can be that for the Nationals in 2010. What impact could you see Franklin Guitierrez having on the Mariners last year?

LL: Franklin might've been the biggest reason behind Jarrod Washburn's half-season 2.64 ERA. Guti impressed everyone. Even the guy who set out to acquire him in the first place. The numbers say he had one of the best defensive seasons of the decade, and the visuals bared that out, as his instincts and route-running more than made up for good but unexceptional footspeed. There were balls to the gap that you would've sworn would go for three bases until this little dot came from the bottom of the screen and closed on the fly. I think he made one bad read all season. One. I remember it.

Plus, he had a bat. Everyone knew Guti had a little offensive upside, but an above-average season? Not a lot of people saw that one coming.

TNB: Outside of Ichiro, what will the Mariners provide offensively in 2010?

LL: Some balance. It'll probably be a mediocre lineup, but there's a little more on-base ability in there than there was a year ago, thanks to the Bradley and Figgins additions. Bradley's gotta be the key to whether the lineup is passable or a problem. If he hits, we'll be doing all right. If he doesn't, we're in some trouble. It's worth noting, though, that even if Bradley does have a good season, the lineup still won't hit a lot of home runs. Kotchman, Ichiro, Wilson, Johnson, and Figgins could all end up with fewer than ten. The runs they score will be runs scored in more indirect ways.

TNB: The Mariners have seen arguably three of the best players (Griffey, Arod, Randy Johnson) in the last 30 years start their career in Seattle only to leave for greener pastures, in your opinion what effect has that had on the culture of Mariners baseball?

LL: It made the Felix extension news about a thousand times sweeter.

TNB: Speaking of Randy Johnson, if you can compare, who was more exciting to watch pitch? Him or Felix Hernandez?

LL: I didn't get to watch Randy a whole hell of a lot, but that doesn't affect my answer. Randy. Peak Randy was more exciting than Peak(?) Felix. When Felix is going good, he'll strike out nine guys. When Randy was going good, he'd strike out 18. Felix has the capability to be the best pitcher in baseball, but in terms of dominance - in terms of pure, raw dominance - he really doesn't have a prayer of ever approaching the Randy Johnson phenomenon. Randy was one of a kind, and for the sake of our sanity we all need to hold Felix up to a different standard.

TNB: What is your all-time favorite Mariners moment?

LL: I could go with the obvious and say The Double. But instead, I'm going to go with Felix's one-hitter in Boston, because I was actually there to see it in person. I wrote it up here, if you're curious. Edgar's walk-off is inarguably the #1 franchise highlight to date, but when it happened, I wasn't even ten. It's not the same. Being able to take a day off from school, drive up to Boston, and watch Felix mow down the eventual World Champions in front of a crowd abuzz with Daisuke Fever is a baseball experience unparalleled in my memory. It was so incredible I didn't even gloat, and those Sox fans are assholes. I witnessed the birth of a star.

Earlier today it was reported that of the six arbitration eligible players, four signed this afternoon. They were Jason Bergmann, Josh Willingham, Jesus Flores, Wil Nieves. It was reported earlier that Bergmann's total was for 1-year/$750,000, however the other players numbers are unknown.

This left relievers Sean Burnett and Brian Bruney who exchanged arbitration numbers this afternoon with the Nationals. Bill Ladson had the scoop:

"RHP Brian Bruney is asking for $1.85 million, while the Nationals are offering $1.5 million."

"#Nats right-hander Jason Bergmann will receive $750,000 for the 2010 season."

The Nationals announced in a press release today:

"The Washington Nationals today agreed to terms on 2010 contracts with right-handed pitcher Jason Bergmann, catcher Jesus Flores, catcher Wil Nieves and outfielder Josh Willingham, thus avoiding salary arbitration. Nationals Senior Vice President & General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement."

With the four agreements, only two players remain unsigned entering the arbitration process, Brian Bruney and Sean Burnett. Typically arbitration cases are looked at based on a players previous two years, so here are the breakdowns for the two unsigned.

Brian Brueny

2009: 5-0, 3.92 ERA, 8.31 K/9, 1.57 K/BB, 5.10 FIP
2008: 3-0, 1.83 ERA, 8.65 K/9, 1.57 K/BB, 3.45 FIP

Sean Burnett

2009: 2-3, 3.12 ERA, 6.71 K/9, 1.65 K/BB, 4.57 FIP
2008: 1-1, 4.76 ERA, 6.67 K/9, 1.24 K/BB, 5.16 FIP