Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 36

Written by Joe Drugan on .

The Nationals were swept by the Braves, but you shouldn't care that much. Either way, we spend some time talking about it, the injuries to Danny Espinosa and Michael Morse, and we begin to touch on postseason rosters. We had some unavoidable ambient noise in this episode, which couldn't be edited out. This is what happens when you don't have the money to invest in soundproof sudios. Sorry all, and thanks for listening.

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Why The Braves Sweep Doesn’t Matter

Written by Joe Drugan on .

 

All the Washington Nationals had to do this past weekend was win a series, something they had done 29 times already this season, and the magic number would have dropped to seven with 16 games left. If they had swept the series, it would have been five games. Unfortunately, the Nats weren’t able to take a single game from the Atlanta Braves, which left the magic number sitting at 11 with 16 games left. Until this past weekend, the Nats had been 10-5 against Atlanta this season, and very few could have predicted a sweep at their hands. I’m here to tell you why, even as bad as you feel right now, it probably won’t matter.

After sweeping the New York Mets and then being swept by the Braves on the road trip, the Nats went .500 over those six games. In the same six-game stretch by the Braves, they were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers and then swept the Nationals to go, you guessed it, .500. So all the Braves did by sweeping the Nats was make up the games that it lost from the previous three, and the Nats have a 5.5 game lead on the NL East.

Even after being swept by their chief rival this season, the Nats still have the best record in the majors, and they are still the only team in baseball with a winning percentage over .600. With this and the number of games left, it still is extremely difficult for the Braves to overtake the Nationals before the season ends on October 3.

At 89-57, or 32 games over .500, if the Nationals went 7-9 for the remainder of the season, they’d end at 96-66. In this scenario, the Braves (84-63) would have to go 12-3 to tie the division lead and 13-2 to win it. Is it possible that the Braves could only lose two or three games for the rest of the season? Sure, it is. Is it likely? Probably not. That’d be an .867 winning percentage over half a month of baseball.

On top of that, what are the odds that the Nationals, who have a .610 winning percentage on the season and are the only team in baseball without a losing month this season, would all of a sudden post a .437 winning percentage over the course of the final half month? Again, pretty low.

So yes, it is possible that the Nats may blow their lead and lose the division, but it would have to be a collapse more historic than the Braves 2011 collapse. Atlanta went 5-11 in their final 16 to lose a spot in the MLB postseason. Now, the Nats have all but locked down at least a wild card spot with the magic number to clinch a birth in the wild card game at three. No one wants it to come to that, though, and I’m confident the Nationals won’t let it get there. You should be, too.

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Some Thoughts On Last Night's Tough Loss To The Braves

Written by William Yoder on .

 

If you had told me in April that we would suffer a walk-off, 2-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves in mid-September I would have guessed that it would have been a heartbreaker. But as Johnny Holliday said it last night, that was a win that meant far more to Atlanta than it did to Washington. A Nats curly w would have helped shrink the Nationals' magic number, but at the end of the day, even with the loss, the club still has the best record in baseball, and they're still up 7.5 games in the division.

As far as ninth inning losses go, you can't be too upset at how the bullpen performed. The Braves reached base on a bleeding infield single past the pitcher that Ian Desmond would have had to make an incredible play on were he to gun out Andrelton Simmons at first. Those types of base hits are the kind of thing that neither the pitcher nor the infield can help, it's just luck on the hitters side. Then a bloop single to right field allowed the base runner to advance to third, and a silly throwing error by Ian Desmond allowed that runner to score on a weakly hit ground ball. That's it. The Braves scored on two weakly hit balls to the best left-side of the infield in baseball and a bloop hit to right field. I'll take those odds every time. 

While collectively it was not the team's best effort in what was in essence a playoff type atmosphere, two young players stepped up in a big way to help keep the Nats in the game. 

First, was Ross Detwiler. The 26-year-old lefty threw six innings of one-run baseball. He allowed just seven hits while striking out five and walking one. While he didn't earn the win, he improved his season ERA to 3.16, which Mark Zuckerman pointed out is the exact same mark that Stephen Strasburg finished at. Detwiler has pitched just eight fewer innings on the year. 

Second, was 19-year-old Bryce Harper. In a game where Washington's lineup failed to show up, Harper had two of the team's five hits, and scored the team's only home run with a solo home run in the top of the sixth. Some have wondered how Harper will adapt to the big stage, but as the young All-Star has long said, he plays better when the pressure is on. He proved that fact last night. 

Some other thoughts:

- Kris Medlen certainly made the case last night of preserving Tommy John recoveries as opposed to shutting them down early. He tormented the Nats last night with 13 strikeouts in seven innings while just walking one batter. The 26-year-old has gone 7-0 since joining the rotation in late July, and has allowed just six earned runs total in that time. 

- The Nationals struck out 17 times last night total. This team can't fall into a hitting slump like they were in earlier this year if they want to do well in the playoffs. They tend to not hit as well after days off, so lets see how they answer back today. 

- Since August Harper has hit 10 home runs. He's found his stroke, and most importantly, he's not getting fooled by breaking pitches anymore. He is waiting back and driving off-speed pitches, while still smashing fastballs. 

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Nats Could All But End Braves Hopes Of Division Championship This Weekend

Written by Erin Flynn on .

 

For the final time in regular season play, the Washington Nationals (89-54) will face the Atlanta Braves (81-63) with the smell of the post-season thick in the air. From 8.5 games back, the Braves’ hopes of overtaking the Nationals for the division title are dwindling; nevertheless, this will be an all-important series for both teams.

For the Nationals,  “it’s time to start looking at magic numbers,” says manager Davey Johnson. The Nats’ magic number to clinch the NL East is 11 with 19 games left to play, as of Friday morning. It seems like we've been saying every series this season has been a big one for the Nationals, but this series against the second-best Braves will be especially influential in propelling them along their countdown to the division crown.

For the Braves and third baseman Chipper Jones, this series will be mostly focused on holding onto their top spot in the NL Wild Card standings (five games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals), as opposed to trying to gain ground on the Nationals. On MLB.com, Jones acknowledged what a difficult task catching up to the Nats would be.

"[The Nationals] played awfully consistently all year, and with only a couple weeks left, it's going to be tough to catch them," Jones said. "Not to say that we're going to stop trying, but right now, I'll just take a win on Friday and go from there."

After being swept this week by the Milwaukee Brewers (72-71), the Braves are going to be eager to get some W’s in the books, while the Nationals are going to want to prove that they can handle a potential post-season opponent with the pressure of the playoffs looming. With such significance hanging on every game for the remainder of both of these teams’ seasons, this series is a face-off you won’t want to miss.  
Last year's collapse

September baseball was not kind to the Braves last year. After going 17-9 in August, Atlanta saw their fortunes do a complete 180, and they finished September with a record of 9-18 for the month.

This time last year, the Braves had begun their notorious collapse. On Friday, September 16 as they were heading into their weekend series, their record stood at 86-64 and they were leading the NL Wild Card by 4.5 games above the Cardinals. They would kick off that series by losing 2-12 to the New York Mets, and they wouldn't win another series for the rest of the season.

Today, the Braves lead the Cardinals by six games, but they can’t afford another late-season series of losses if they want to secure the playoff spot the Cards claimed from them last season.

Finishing strong

With their eyes on October, the Nationals have been playing like they want to win. Their offense has really come through for them, scoring the second-most runs in baseball for the month of September (70) and leading all teams in batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.565). They’ve hit 30 home runs already this month, 11 more than the next highest National League team.

One of very few Nationals who have played in the post-season, Jayson Werth has been enjoying being a part of the Nats’ late season success. "Now that we're in it, it's just going to make it even more fun," Werth said, according to MLB.com. This is what it's all about. This is why you work out for three months in the winter and go to Spring Training early every day to play. Losing sucks. I really enjoy winning."

The Braves’ offense has been performing at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Nats. Their September slash line of .235/.309/.333 ranks 22nd, 18th and 28th, respectively. They have scored just 37 runs this month (23rd place), and based on the stats, they aren’t likely to add much more to that number against the Nationals, who have limited Atlanta to an average of 3.8 runs per game and a .239 batting average.

Pitcher of last month

Kris Medlen, the Braves’ powerhouse righty, will face the Nationals for his third time this season in the series opener. Medlen, who is on an innings limit after undergoing Tommy John surgery two years ago, spent most of the year in the bullpen to save his innings for the end of the season. But since he was added to the starting rotation on July 31 he has been lights out. The Braves have won all eight games he’s started, two of them complete game efforts. As a starter, his 0.81 ERA and 53 strikeouts earned him the honor of NL Pitcher of the Month for August. 

This season against the Nats, Medlen has a 1-1 record with a 2.13 ERA through 12 2/3 innings. Although the rest of major league baseball is only batting .203 off him, the Nationals have hit .298 against him in 47 at bats. The Nationals will be aiming to keep their bats hot against Medlen on Friday and to extend their winning streak to four games.
Worth noting

- The Nationals are 10-5 against the Braves this season, so even if the Braves swept them, the Nats would finish the regular season with a winning head-to-head record.

- Atlanta is 11 for its last 25 games, and in that span they’ve averaged 3.1 runs per game and hit .152 with runners in scoring position.

Who's hot?

Dan Uggla (2B) .346 AVG, .433 OBP, .577 SLG, 1 HR (last seven games)

Martin Prado (LF) .333 AVG, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 2 RBI (last seven games)

Kris Medlen (SP) 0.46 ERA, .187 BAA, 37 SO, 39 IP, 5 W (last five starts)

Luis Avilan (RP) 1.29 ERA, .240 BAA, 5 SO, 7 IP (last seven games)

Who's not?

Michael Bourne (CF) .138 AVG, . 194 OBP, .172 SLG, 8 SO (last seven games)

Chad Durbin (RP) 6.00 ERA, .385 BAA, 3 SO, 3.0 IP (last four games)

Probable starters

Ross Detwiler (9-6, 3.23 ERA) vs. Kris Medlen (8-1, 1.64 ERA)

Edwin Jackson (9-10, 3.85 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (12-8, 4.35 ERA)

Gio Gonzalez (19-7, 2.93 ERA) vs. Mike Minor (8-10, 4.42 ERA) 

Nationals Report Card: September 7-12

Written by Joe Drugan on .

 

It’s been a while since I’ve posted this feature, so I apologize to those of you who have asked for it in the past. The last week has been filled with ups and downs for the Washington Nationals. Stephen Strasburg had his season end a start early as he had a terrible game on Friday against the Marlins, where he only lasted three innings and gave up five runs.

The lost the series to the Miami Marlins and finished the season series with the worst team in the NL East at .500. Then, the Nats went to face the New York Mets and showed baseball why they’re the best team. They completed a three-game sweep, and for the first two games of the series, it never looked close. Mets pitcher Matt Harvey kept the Mets in the game on Wednesday giving up just one run, but John Lannan was just better.

The Nats lost a series to a team they should have beat up on and swept a series against another team they were "supposed" to beat. The Mets sweep put the Nats a season-high 35 games above .500 and gave them a season-best 8.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves, who were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers in a three-games series.

Overall, this was an above-average week for the Nats. It was fun to watch, but nowhere near dominating. The Nats start a huge series against the Braves this weekend that could put the division just about out of their reach, so enjoy the off day today. Baseball this weekend may be stressful.

Grade: B/B+

Player Of The Week: Ian Desmond

Desmond sat out a game on September 9 for some rest, but that doesn't make his week any less impressive. In the five games he played, he hit two home runs, scored four runs, hit .429, and put up an insane 1.264 OPS. Desmond has won this honor before, and I expect he could win it again before the season is over.

 

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Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 35

Written by Joe Drugan on .

As the postseason gets closer by the day, the Washington Nationals are playing some of the most meaningful games in their history. We talk about the brawl with the Chicago Cubs, possible postseason pitching situations, the 2013 baseball season, and Ryan Zimmerman's franchise record. We also spend a lot of time on possible award winners for Cy Young, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and Rookie of the Year.

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Nats Open 2013 Season At Home Against Marlins, Face AL Central In New Interleague Format

Written by Joe Drugan on .

 

Major League Baseball released its 2013 schedule on Wednesday, giving teams a preview of next year's schedule before this year is even complete. Still, there are a few games and series worth circling on your calendar for next year’s campaign. Namely, a new format for the Battle of the Beltways.

Opening Series

The Nationals will take on the Miami Marlins on Opening Day, which is April 1, 2013. The Marlins could look very different again after a huge letdown year after this offseason.

Interleague Changes

The Nats will take on the AL Central during interleague play this year, but it will be a bit different than in previous seasons. Instead of a chunk of series in June pushed together, it will be spread out, with one series against the AL each month through August. The Chicago White Sox will come to Nationals Park for just the third series of the season from April 9 through April 11.

They’ll get the Detroit Tigers for a two-game series on May 7 and 8, and they’ll go to Detroit for two on July 30 and 31. and they’ll get the Baltimore Orioles for four straight from May 27 (Memorial Day) through May 30. The first two will be at Nats Park with the last two at Camden Yards.

In June, the Minnesota Twins come to town from June 6 through June 9, and Nats fans will be reunited with Josh Willingham and Ben Goessling, the former MASN beat writer for the Nats who know covers the Twins. If you’re not Goessling, you’re guessing.

Sadly, the Kansas City Royals series from August 23 through August 25 will not be in DC, so you’ll have to try to catch their young stars another time.

Holidays

- Opening Day is on April Fool’s Day.

- Mother’s Day will be a home game against the Chicago Cubs on May 12.

The Nats will get the Orioles on Memorial Day, but they will be away for the weekend series preceding it.

- Independence Day will be celebrated in our Nation’s Capital again, this time against the Milwaukee Brewers. No times have been released for the schedule, but expect a very early game, perhaps in the AM hours like this year.

Labor Day is September 1 this year, and the Nats will be home to face the New York Mets

Finally, the season will end in September, making baseball purists everywhere happy. The last home series for the Nats will be a four gamer with the Marlins from September 19 through September 22. They’ll then head to St. Louis and Arizona for the final two series of the season, which ends on September 29.

It’s impossible to know exactly how next season will play out, because this season isn’t over, and lots of things can happen in the offseason to change the makeup of a team. However, it’s good to know what days you need to totally dedicate yourself to the Nationals next year more than six months early. But, if you’re like me, it’ll be all 162 days there are games scheduled, anyways.

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Nats Win 88th Against One Of NL’s Best Pitchers

Written by Joe Drugan on .

 

The Washington Nationals had to face off against one of the best starters in the National League, R.A. Dickey, on Tuesday. Dickey is considered by many to be a leading candidate for the NL Cy Young Award with Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, and Johnny Cueto, and he was looking to tie Gonzalez for the MLB lead in wins at 19. The Nationals offense and pitching came through once again with a 5-3 victory, leaving Gio as the game’s only 19-game winner, giving the Nats their 88th win of the season, and reducing their magic number to 13 after the Braves fell to the Brewers.

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t exactly been elite lately. He had an atrocious game against St. Louis two starts ago where he gave up eight runs in three and two-thirds innings, and a season-low 2.28 ERA at the end of July slowly ticked up to 2.99 before Tuesday’s game. Now, a 2.99 ERA is an impressive number any way you look at it, but it’s also a pretty big increase in just over a month.

He wasn’t elite against the Mets this time around either, but he was able to elude most serious trouble. He went just five innings for the fourth time in his last eight starts, but he only gave up two runs on six hits and managed to keep the Nats in the game for their impressive bullpen to lock it down. Zimmermann’s latest outing can be accurately described as effectively wild, and he now sports a 3.01 ERA.

Tom Gorzelanny managed to pitch a three up, three down sixth inning to allow Christian Garcia to come in to work his magic. Garcia, a September call up with superior stuff and two Tommy John surgeries to his name, was absolutely remarkable. He pitched one and  one-third innings and left the opposing hitters totally baffled, and he struck out the side in the seventh.

Garcia fell behind 3-0 to Jordany Valdespin, but came back and struck him out on a fantastic change up. He may have the second- or third-best change up on the Nats pitching staff, behind Stephen Strasburg and possibly Tyler Clippard. It almost looks like a sinker.

Valdespin, Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy in the seventh and David Wright in the eighth were no contest to Garcia’s stuff. Davey Johnson showed confidence to put the rookie in a game with a one-run lead, and he came through in a big way. This outing will be remembered down the stretch.

Michael Gonzalez and Drew Storen each faced a batter to end the eighth, and Tyler Clippard earned his 31st save after giving up a home run to Scott Hairston. He did allow another base runner to reach and brought the tying run to the plate but averted disaster. It’s rarely easy with Clippard, but he does get results.

Some thoughts:

- In 13 of their last 14 games, the Nats have hit a home run, and in that time It was a big one for the Nats in the top of the seventh when Tyler Moore took R.A. Dickey deep on the first pitch he saw from him. It was a two-run shot that gave the Nats a 3-2 lead.

- Ryan Zimmerman extended his hitting streak to 15 games, which is the longest active streak in baseball.

- With the magic number of 13, the Nats could clinch the NL East Division Title as early as September 20th, but that would require the Nats to win their next seven games and for the Braves to lose their next seven games.

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