An Unacceptable Meltdown
Harper Vs. Hirschbeck: Breaking Down The Ejection
Bryce Harper and Justin Upton: An Early Season Comparison
A Look At Tyler Clippard's Pitch Locations

An insight into Nationals pitching coach Steve McCatty

Written by William Yoder on .

medium_mccattyBaseball Prospectus sat down with Nationals pitching talent Ross Detwiler to discuss his future and Nationals baseball. In the interview BP's David Lauria asks Detwiler about his approach against hitters, his answer reveals some interesting things about the Nationals pitching coach, Steve McCatty:

"DL: You’ve talked about the importance of working down in the strike zone.

RD: Our pitching coach, Steve McCatty, went up [to Washington], and he goes about things differently than any other pitching coach I’ve had. He’ll sit in the video room with you, and before you watch it, he’ll ask if you thought a certain pitch was a good pitch. You‘ll have to recall back to how you threw it, and where you think it was, and then he’ll show you on film that it wasn’t as low as you actually thought it was. In that sense, the way that he teaches made me realize that I wasn’t down in the zone that much, and that’s why everything was getting hit hard. That’s something that magnifies as you move up through the levels.

DL: Does your stuff play better down in the zone?

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Matt Capps: Buncher At Large

Written by Bryce Stucki on .

In 2009 Matt Capps had a BB/9 of 2.82 which is over a walk an inning higher than his career average. It was also over two walks an inning higher than his 2008 mark. Stranger still Capps had almost identical Strike to Balls (S/B) ratios in those seasons: 2.08 in 2008 and 2.07 in 2009. How we can explain this apparent discrepancy?

matt_cappsA higher percentage of batters saw two or more balls from Capps in 2009 versus 2008. In 2008 batters saw two or more balls 30.5% of the time while in 2009 that number was 35.8%. Batters saw three or more balls 11.4% of the time in 2008 while in 2009 that number was 14.3%. Hitters ended their PAs in 3-0, 3-1, and 2-0 counts nearly twice as often in 2009. Capps also ended PAs in 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 counts 5.4% more of the time in 2009 and batters found themselves in two strike counts 7.7% more frequently in 2009.

What these numbers suggest to me is that although Capps's control had not diminished in 2009 versus 2008 - he was capable of throwing about two strikes for every ball in both years - but the pattern in which he threw his pitches had changed. Capps "bunched" his pitches in 2009, meaning when he threw strikes they tended to come in bunches, and there was a similar trend in the balls he threw. This describes the pattern we see in the data: hitters saw counts with many balls and few strikes and vice versa at higher rates in 2009 versus 2008, but the constant S/B ratio in 2008 and 2009 ensures that they did not see even counts as frequently in those years.

My thought is that Capps' bunching came as a result of his pitch selection. In 2008 14.8% of Capps' pitches were sliders versus 25.0% in 2009. It is possible that Capps tended to go with the slider when he fell behind batters, leading to more balls. Conversely when Capps got in front of batters he may have found it easier to stick with the fastball and to get hitters to chase the slider, both leading to more strikes.

To fix this problem Capps could go back to his 2008 pitch selection. I think this could lead to a significant decrease in his BB/9. Unfortunately for Capps, however, his fastball and slider saw decreases in effectiveness in 2009. If he were to switch back to throwing fastballs 78.6% of the time - as he did in 2008 - and his fastball were the same as last year, Capps would probably get hit even harder than he did in 2009 (which is a little tough to believe considering he had a .370 BABIP, .324 BAA, .533 SLG, 1.66 HR/9 that year).

It seems that no matter how you look at it Capps is in trouble for 2010. Switching back to his 2008 pitch selection would probably cause Capps to walk fewer batters but also increase his chances of getting hit hard. Staying the course would probably result in a season on par with 2009. Of course this all assumes that Capps' fastball and slider will be at the same level in 2010. If, as Capps claims, coming into camp in bad shape (as  mentioned in an earlier post of ours on Capps) increases his abilities, then maybe a hefty season can make all of my predictions look silly.

This Week In Baseball - Aroldis and Big Mac

Written by William Yoder on .

Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman signed with the Cincinnati Reds for six years, $30 million.
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According to Bill Ladson, the Washington Nationals were in it until the end with the Cuban hurler and offered him as much as five years for $25 million.
“Asked if money was the reason Chapman didn't sign with the Nationals, Kasten said, "Well, at the end, it came down to money, but we went pretty hard. We made a very, very attractive offer. It wasn't quite like what the final offer was apparently, but we were very aggressive ... for a kid who has not yet thrown a pitch [in the United States]."

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Nationals Introspective: Nats News Network

Written by William Yoder on .

westview_logo_nationals_1To get multiple voices on to the blog and to better get to know the Natmosphere we will begin a series called Nationals Introspective. Each week we will talk to one Nationals blogger about baseball, the Nationals, and blogging. First up we have Dave Nichols from Nationals News Network:

TNB: How long have you been a baseball fan and how long have you had
your site?
Dave: I've been a baseball fan as long as I can remember.  I've had my own
blog since mid-season 2007.
TNB: Who were you a fan of before the Nationals came to Washington?
Dave: The Orioles.  But no longer.  I realized in spring training 2008 that
I have no emotional connection with the these Orioles anymore.  Cal
Ripken is still one of my sports heroes, but the Orioles today are
just another team.

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News from Nats Town: Nationals willing to give Hudson two years

Written by William Yoder on .

47463834John Paul Marosi of Fox Sports reported today that the Nationals are currently pursuing free-agent second baseman Orlando Hudson and are willing to offer him a two-year deal...at the right price. That right price is currently somwhere between three and nine million dollars a year, a wide range that very well may indicate just how far apart  Hudson and the Nationals are:

 

"In looking for another middle infielder, the Nationals are prioritizing defense. That’s why they remain interested in second baseman Orlando Hudson, two major-league sources said Tuesday.

One person with knowledge of Hudson’s market believes Washington would be willing to make him a two-year offer at the right price.

If they stick with current personnel, the Nationals could move Cristian Guzman to second base and play young Ian Desmond at shortstop.

Hudson made the National League All-Star team last year but lost his starting job to Ronnie Belliard late in the season. Yet, he still won his fourth Gold Glove."

Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com doesn't see it happening:
"…well, i think we all want a lot of things that will never happen, and apparently hudson is right there with us… good luck with that, orlando……the buzz in baseball has been, because of other free-agent second baseman on the market, and so few teams with an opening, or demand for their services, a player like hudson will likely be forced to accept a deal similar to what he made last season, i.e., one-year, $3 million guaranteed, $6 million in incentives, which would equal the $9 million he is seeking… of course, ladson doesn’t say if he wants the $9 million guaranteed… the thing is, if that is the annual salary, i am not sure why he would sign on for two full seasons… as much as he probably hates to do it, it might be best to just sign another one-year deal, like last year, and see what’s up again one year from now…"

Catching up with the Angels, Halos Heaven

Written by William Yoder on .

halosheavenTo get Washington fans ready for the coming baseball season, all spring (err...and Winter) I will be interviewing a blogger from each team in the league. To kick off our journey I spoke with Rev from one of the top MLB blogs on the net, Halos Heaven. The Angels are undergoing a big transition this offseason, so it will be interesting to see how they do in 2010.

TNB: My boss is an Angels fan, what can I tell him to make him feel better about losing Figgins, Lackey, and Vlad this offseason?
Rev From Halos Heaven: The Angels are younger and better. Figgins could go cold at any time (like he did in his sub-zero October), Lackey won't have a great 3rd 4th and 5th season to warrant that contract and with Vlad, the Angels had his medical records and Matsui's records... I will take their better judgment and this is coming from an unabashed Vlad lover.
TNB: The Angels captivated much of the country in 2002 when they captured the World Series, since then how has the baseball culture changed in Los Angeles/Anaheim?
Rev: Kinda like how DC followed the Expos for the 30-some years before they moved to your neighborhood. Basically they did not and now they do. The Angels function as an expansion team (circa-2002) for most of Southern California. But if Kobe scores 50 and an Angels pitcher throws a one-hitter, we don't get the lead.
TNB: The group of Jeff Mathis, Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick were all highly touted prospects over the years, how do you feel about them now that they've reached the  majors, and how do you see them contributing in 2010?

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We were fools once...and young

Written by William Yoder on .

mark-mcgwire_nc

Today marked the end of an era of lies, speculation and deceit. An era of broken promises and false dreams that brought baseball back from a self-imposed crypt only to unravel and leave them in purgatory. With Mark McGwire’s admission today that he did in fact take steroids during his illustrious career, including during his magical home run chase in the late 90s, a final puzzle piece is put into place to finish what is now a dreadful picture.

While McGwire’s admission came as a surprise to very few, his affirmation of our suspicions makes the pain of the last several years feel so absolute. As ESPN showed replays of McGwire’s 62nd home run over and over today, the joyous faces of everyone involved couldn’t help but remind me how enchanting that moment was to a young 11-year-old baseball fan, and how stupid it has made me feel over the last several years knowing the truth. Seeing the smiles on the faces of the 1998 crowd, of the Maris family, and of McGwire’s son, they look like such fools. Of course then reality sets in, we were those fools.

topWhen an athlete makes a mistake, one of the first questions the public asks is what effect will it have on the kids? I was a kid of the Mark McGwire era, in the worst way. I owned a number 25 jersey, I cut out newspaper clips every time he hit a home run in September, and I painted a red beard on my face in October to be Big Mac for Halloween. Aside from personal acquaintances and family, this news hits me hardest because McGwire was my hero, he was everything I wanted to be and everything I looked up to.

So what effect did McGwire’s gradual fall from grace over the last decade have on me?

I was a high-school baseball player who wanted nothing more but to be the best. I was undersized, often lifting weights to try and even the playing field. However at the age of 16 I was smart enough to not use performance-enhancing drugs because I had a conscience. Unlike the 30-year-old McGwire, I was big enough to just say no to the peer pressure.

No, the effect of McGwire’s guise of invincibility and heroism affected me much deeper than in my decision to say no to steroids. On a day much more contemptible than today I watched as Mark McGwire, along with Sammy Sosa, Raphael Palmeiro, and Jose Canseco, testified just a stones throw from my home, in congress. It wasn’t McGwire’s words but his shriveled face, his vacant glare and his empty banter that crushed my innocence as a baseball fan. We all knew that 2005 day that the man with whom we placed our hopes on in 1998 was a fake.

Now at the age of 22 it’s hard for me to truly become involved in a sports event. Of course it’s not all McGwire’s fault, as long as there have been sports there have been athletes who were not the gods of men we made them out to be. However McGwire captivated not only the dreams of an 11-year-old but the hopes of my 40-year-old dad and 10, 20, 30, all the way to 80 something’s across the nation.

We were all fools.

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McGwire admits steroid use, apologizes

Written by William Yoder on .

amd_mcgwireToday Mark McGwire officially announced what we had all already suspected, that he had used steroids in the 1990's. It was an announcement that had been expected since the former home-run-king had agreed to be the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals for the 2010 season. With the air cleared regarding steroids, it is McGwire's how that he can focus on coaching and not get in the Cardinals way by overshadowing the play on the field. Here is the statement he released today:
"Now that I have become the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals, I have the chance to do something that I wish I was able to do five years ago.

"I never knew when, but I always knew this day would come. It's time for me to talk about the past and to confirm what people have suspected. I used steroids during my playing career and I apologize. I remember trying steroids very briefly in the 1989/1990 off season and then after I was injured in 1993, I used steroids again. I used them on occasion throughout the '90s, including during the 1998 season.

"I wish I had never touched steroids. It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played during the steroid era.

"During the mid-'90s, I went on the DL seven times and missed 228 games over five years. I experienced a lot of injuries, including a ribcage strain, a torn left heel muscle, a stress fracture of the left heel, and a torn right heel muscle. It was definitely a miserable bunch of years and I told myself that steroids could help me recover faster. I thought they would help me heal and prevent injuries, too.

"I'm sure people will wonder if I could have hit all those home runs had I never taken steroids. I had good years when I didn't take any and I had bad years when I didn't take any. I had good years when I took steroids and I had bad years when I took steroids. But no matter what, I shouldn't have done it and for that I'm truly sorry.

"Baseball is really different now -- it's been cleaned up. The commissioner and the players' association implemented testing and they cracked down, and I'm glad they did.

"I'm grateful to the Cardinals for bringing me back to baseball. I want to say thank you to Cardinals owner Mr. DeWitt, to my GM, John Mozeliak, and to my manager, Tony La Russa. I can't wait to put the uniform on again and to be back on the field in front of the great fans in Saint Louis. I've always appreciated their support and I intend to earn it again, this time as hitting coach. I'm going to pour myself into this job and do everything I can to help the Cardinals hitters become the best players for years to come.

"After all this time, I want to come clean. I was not in a position to do that five years ago in my congressional testimony, but now I feel an obligation to discuss this and to answer questions about it. I'll do that, and then I just want to help my team."
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