Nationals pitcher Ross Detwiler underwent surgery to repair a partially torn hip flexer last week and will be out at least three months. Mark Zuckerman, former Washington Times reporter turned independent blogger, reported the story:

"Detwiler had surgery Monday to repair a torn hip flexor and will miss about 10 weeks, according to a source close to the left-hander. The injury occurred sometime during the last month while the former first-round draft pick was working out in Viera....

UPDATE AT 4:28 P.M. -- The Nats have now confirmed Detwiler's surgery and say he is scheduled to begin a throwing program in six weeks and 'should be able to return to competitive pitching in three months.'"-Nats Insider

Analysis:

This injury may be a lot bigger than most Nationals fans think.

Detwiler is often overshadowed within the farm system by names like Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Storen, but there are many scouts who believe that Detwiler has the talent to be a big league ace. In fact even last year Baseball Prospectus said that despite Zimmermann's great track record, Detwiler had the most potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

After being drafted with the sixth overall pick in 2007, Detwiler struggled when the Nationals tried to change his delivery. The Nats felt that he could benefit from a more traditional delivery which would improve his fastball and add more movement to his off-speed pitches. All it did was confuse him and the talented pitcher struggled for two years.

Given the opportunity to return to his old delivery in 2009 Detwiler exploded through the system recording 28 strikeouts in 27 innings. Injuries at the big league level earned Detwiler a promotion to Washington without any experience in AAA. While Detwiler only posted a 1-6 record with a 5.00 ERA in Washington, he was the victim of some bad luck and some bad defense. In 75.2 innings pitched he posted a .330 BABIP and a 3.86 FIP, which indicates that he really pitched a good deal better than his 5.00 ERA.

Of course there are a few things Detwiler really needs to work on, first being his control. Much of Detwilers bad luck was inflated by the fact he allowed a lot of batters on base due to free passes. He allowed 3.93 walks per nine innings in Washington last year which didn't do him any favors. It's a problem that has been with the hurler since the beginning, throughout the minors he has posted BB/9 numbers of; 4.14, 3.29 and 3.65. He had great stuff, and gets a lot of strikeouts, which helps him make outs at lower levels, but he needs to gain more control. Unfortunately, that's something he could have been spending these next three months doing.

Detwiler also needs to allow less line drives to produce more batted outs. This is likely a result of poor control as well, which allows for missed spots and harder hit balls. Detwiler allowed 25.1 percent line drives in 2009, which had he earned enough innings, would have led the major leagues. If Detwiler can hit his spots, he has the stuff to make a lot of outs.

Now out three months, Detwiler loses a great deal of development time. It was the Nationals hope that he could use the first half of this season to really hone his skills while others held his place in the bigs. Ideally the Nationals would hit 2011 running with three top young arms, Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Detwiler, and veteran arms in John Lannan and Jason Marquis. Now two of those three young arms will have to spend 2010 recovering from surgery, not preparing to be a big league star.

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Over the last two seasons, the Washington Nationals bullpen has become a place of limbo for players on their way out of the league (or those who never had the talent to be in it) to dawdle a little longer.  Players like Kip Wells, Wil Ledezma, Jorge Sosa, Jesus Colome, and the ever eccentric Julian Tavarez.  Last season, the bullpen seemed more like a free flowing game of musical chairs for "has-beens" and "never-will-bes" than a source of pitchers that could provide relief.  The only true "reliever" that Nationals fans found last year was located in their refrigerator, ice cold.  This season, look for a revamped and better bullpen, maybe better than any one the Nationals have had in D.C. thus far.

Consider this, last season the team started the season with a bullpen of Joe Beimel, Julian Tavarez, Saul Rivera, Joel Hanrahan, Mike Hinckley, Steven Shell, and Wil Ledezma.  Of those, maybe only Beimel and Rivera were not question marks.  Beimel had just come off a good season with the Dodgers and Rivera had been mostly solid in his time with Washington.  Unfortunately, it appears Rivera was overused in the WBC and was never able to regain his form.  The rest of those guys were either on their last legs in their career or mostly unproven at the major league level.  None of those players, except for maybe Beimel, were in their prime.  Over the course of the season, the Nats trotted out an assortment of AAAA'ers and senior citizens to mostly the same result.  Some were able to survive (MacDougal, Villone), but most were just downright horrible (Colome, Kip Wells, Logan Kensing).  The bullpen finished with a league worst 5.09 ERA, 4.96 BB/9, and 1.58 WHIP.  Only three teams had more blown saves.

No one will deny that the bullpen was one of the Nationals biggest problem areas in 2009, which is one of the reasons why they drafted a large proportion of likely relievers (Holder, Morris, Weaver, Bronson) in last June's First Year Player Draft, including Drew Storen with the 10th overall pick.  I can imagine first year GM Mike Rizzo, after what he witnessed last season, made a resolution to never again let such an abysmal set of relievers run out to the mound with a curly W on their cap.  In addition to retooling the farm, Rizzo traded for Brian Bruney and Sean Burnett, signed Tyler Walker and likely closer Matt Capps, and brought in guys like  Eddie Guardado, Ryan Speier, Miguel Batista, and Doug Slaten to compete for the remaining spots with younger guys like Tyler Clippard, Jason Bergmann, and any of last year's starters that do not make the rotation.

Just for comparison's sake, I will make an early prediction on what the bullpen will be this year:  Matt Capps (closer), Brian Bruney, Sean Burnett, Tyler Walker, Tyler Clippard, Eddie Guardado, Miguel Batista.  A bullpen comprised of those seven would have combined last season for totals of 3.86 ERA, 4.12 BB/9, and 1.38 WHIP, remarkably better than last year's group. Now obviously, this is a crude comparison that does not account for many different factors.  Some of these players could play much better (or much worse) than they did last year.  And most certainly, the Nationals will be forced to use at least five more pitchers in some capacity from the pen at some point this season, making depth at the position all the more important, but it is clear that the ceilings on this year's group is higher and more attainable than last year's.  As the questions surrounding the bullpen slowly die off, attention will be shifted towards the other weak areas this spring, the defense and the rotation.  But Nats fans can rejoice in the fact that they will not be seeing Kip Wells closing for them at any point this season.

Phil Naquin is a guest writer for The Nats Blog who will be be appearing weekly with analysis of the Washington Nationals using sabermetrics, pitch f/x tools, and scouting observations.  He also runs a blog, Half Street High Rise (link:http://halfstreethighrise.blogspot.com/)

The Nationals announced today what we had long expected, they have officially signed Chien-Ming Wang:

This is confirmed: Chien-Ming Wang's contract will pay him $2 million in 2010. He can earn up to $3 million in incentives. Also, he's already passed a physical -- yet another sign that this deal was days in the making."  - Chico Harlan, Nationals Journal.

Analysis:

The base salary is a little bit higher than I would have liked to see. Wang is a player who has been a 20-game talent in the past but the potential for him to fall apart following shoulder surgery this season is far higher than him matching his old form. $2 million for a player that holds a high risk of pitching less than 50 major league innings next season is a bit high, but it's nothing to really fret about.

For the Nationals, however, the real key to getting Wang on track will not only be making sure he's healthy, but also to help him regain the mechanics that made him successful from 2006-2007. As you can see, he was a groundball master in that span, but something cause him to be way less successful in the previous few years:

When we last left him a little over a week ago, Bryce Harper was batting .323/.405/.677 with two homers, nine RBI, and 21 total bases through his first eight junior collegiate games. In his three games since, Harper has exploded going five for his last 12 with four extra-base hits and seven RBI. With the Coyotes now 9-1, Harper is batting .349/.420/.744. That's an OPS of 1.164...for a 17 year old...in JU-CO.

Here are his game by game results:

1/29 - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI
1/30 - 0/3, 1 R
1/30 - 0/5
1/31 - 3/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR
2/3   - 3/6, 1 R, 1 RBI
2/4   - 0/4, 1 RBI
2/5   - 2/3, 1 R, 4 RBI, 1 HR
2/5   - 1/3, 1 RBI
2/12 - 2/4, 2b, 1 HR
2/13 - 3/5, 2x2b, 1 HR, 6 RBI
2/14 - 0/3, 1 R

Bryce Harper hits his third homer of the year - Vegas Scout

Bryce Harper smacks a Valentines Day Bomb- Vegas Scout

To many Nationals fans, a perfect baseball world would have Ian Desmond 100 percent ready to take over full-time operation of the shortstop position, Adam Kennedy back to his 2005 form, and for Cristian Guzman to just disappear.

Unfortunately for Washingtonians and this isn't a perfect world.

Ian Desmond was outstanding in 2009 but has a tradition of disappointing. He posted BABIP'S of .371 and .425 in AA and AAA before reaching Washington at the end of the season, which leads one to believe he may be up for a relapse. Adam Kennedy had a come back year in 2009, but prior to that he had struggled in his two-year stint with the Cardinals and was inevitably released. Cristian Guzman at this point in his career isn't a very good fielder, hitter, or thrower, and walks only slightly more at the major league level than I do. The Nationals are forced to at least play him a little bit though, as they are paying him $8 million this year.

So what can the Nationals do? They have three middle infielders that at most, in my mind, I only have 66 percent confidence in. They have a budding young star that they want to give playing time, but an old over paid shortstop who they are paying to produce, and a second basemen that hopefully will be a guy who can give them the consistency they need in that position, but no guarantee's.

So here's the solution Mr. Rizzo and Riggleman. A plan that will allow all three players to play, and an opportunity to help them all excel.

I propose a three-way (I thought the giggles stopped with Wang, oh-well) platoon.

Adam Kennedy, a left-handed hitter, right-handed thrower, was horrendous against lefties in 2009.  Kennedy batted .241/.303/.333 against southpaw's in 2009 compared to .306/.363/.437 against righties. In fact, in his whole career Kennedy has only batted .245/.303/.329 against left-handers and .291/.348/.409 against righties.

Cristian Guzman, a switch hitter, preformed poorly against righties in 2009 but well against lefties.  Against righties in 2009 Guzman hit .277 but only reached base at .301 and slugged .379. Against lefties (and batting right handed), Guzman hit .307/.323/.425, a large improvement than on his other splits.  It may be wise for Guzman just to make the move to bat as a righty full-time.

Ian Desmond, a young player, is about equal against both righties and lefties for all intensive purposes, and at his age shouldn't be limited against which pitchers he hits against.

With these stats it seems to me the solution is simple. Against right handed pitching, play Adam Kennedy at second base, and play Ian Desmond at shortstop 60 percent of the time while having Guzman get 40% to work on hitting right handed batting from the right side. Eventually as the Nationals get more comfortable with Desmond playing full-time, they can give him 100% playing time at short against righties.

Then, when the Nationals face a lefty, have either Guzman or Desmond (preferably Guzman) play second base, the other short, and have Kennedy sit.

While this strategy may seem hard to manage, to me it seems like the best way to get the most out of the three players while still keeping in mind several key principles. Them being:

1.     Ian Desmond needs to play, but cant be relied on yet.

2.     Cristian Guzman needs to be a valuable asset with his contract, this may be the best way to capitalize on him

3.     Adam Kennedy kills right handed pitching but can't handle the lefties, this makes him the most effective.

WEIGH IN

What do you think? Is this plausible? Would it work? Is it missing something fundamental and important?

Around the Horn Baseball is having a debate on whether or not the Nationals should let Stephen Strasburg start the season in Washington or whether they should keep him in the minors. Joe Tetreault from TetraultVision argues for the Nats including the hurler in their opening day line up, and Slanch from The Slanch Report argues against it.

I was surprised as both sides have really strong arguments. I expected going into it to just see the usual debate about rushing young pitchers, but both sides have valid points. There is also a debate going on in the comments section, feel free to join in!

The debate is part of The Great Bloguin Baseball Debates, a series The Nats Blog will be joining later this winter:

Follow us as each week as our best writers from around the Bloguin Network take aim at each other and square off on anything and everything baseball from "who was better, Mays or Mantle" to "Should MLB have a salary cap?"

Pick a side and agree or disagree. Take part in the debate by posting a comment giving your own opinion. There are no holds barred and nothing is held back in the "The Great Bloguin Baseball Debate."

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