Despite his undeniable talent and potential - and apparently impeccable clubhouse demeanor - it appears to be a foregone conclusion that the Washington Nationals' prized pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg will begin the season in the minor leagues and remain there until late May.

Amid rampant speculation and rumors, Adam Kilgore details why the Nationals should delay Strasburg's major league debut. In addition to the developmental advantages of easing a 21 year-old pitcher with such towering expectations into professional baseball, the primary benefits the Nationals stand to gain are in the form of salary relief.

While Strasburg's contract includes a $7.5 million signing bonus and $7.6 million in total salary from 2009-2012, the Nationals can delay his arbitration eligibility for another year by ensuring that his major league service clock does not begin until mid-to-late May. (This would secure his status as a "zero-to-three" player and avoid a flirtation with "Super Two" standing. For an example of such a treatment, see the Baltimore Orioles' actions with regards to all-world catching prospect Matt Wieters.) By deterring salary arbitration for a year, the Nationals extend their rights over Strasburg through 2016 and guarantee that he receives compensation in accordance with his rookie contract during the 2012 season. If he performs anywhere near the lofty expectations that many hold for him, the Nationals would save approximately $10-15 million in salary during that one season.

When the Washington Nationals gave Elijah Dukes his unconditional release this morning, just about everyone's mind went to the same place. The often troubled Dukes has a torrid past, which despite reports of a recent growth in his maturity, still harbors the biggest fears in a Nationals fans heart. For a collective moment, we were all thinking, "What did Elijah do now?"

But as the dust settled, and the Twitter battles ended, it became clear that the slugger we were all rooting for had matured his behavior, just not his game. Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman told everyone who would listen that this was an on the field matter, calling it a "performance based decision." Nationals Manager Jim Riggleman went as far to say that he viewed Dukes as essentially a AAAA player, the type of guy who was too advanced for AAA, but not able to produce constantly in the majors.

While Dukes struggled in 2009 at the young age of 25, he excelled in 2008 at the age of 24. The right-fielder batted .260/.386/.478, numbers which came after he only managed to hit .167/.311/.208 in his first 20 games. Dukes finished 2008 with a wRC+ of 135, a UZR/150 of 11.6, and a WAR of 2.8. With his track record, many still projected Dukes to have a breakout year in 2010.

Within the last few minutes, the Nationals have reportedly cut Elijah Dukes. Ben Goessling of MASN Online reports that the release is not related to any off-the-field issues. Projected to start in right field, the news comes as a shock and leaves the Nationals' outfield in flux. Though he had struggled in the past with injuries and inconsistency, Dukes was a relatively cheap option, making essentially the league minimum while remaining a high-potential player based on his myriad tools. This is particularly surprising since the contract was signed just over a month ago.

Coming out of high school, Dukes was an incredible athlete and highly-touted prospect. A 3rd round pick of Tampa Bay, Dukes chose to pass up a football scholarship to North Carolina State University and sign with the Rays. Dukes displayed his tremendous talent and potential in his first major league at bat with a home run; however, his young career has been a one of highs and lows. In part because of his off-the-field issues (including three arrests), Dukes has been unable to perform successfully at the major league level for an entire season. Although he is often described as a true five-tool player, his career .242 average is a testament to his inconsistency.

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This move has made the Nationals' outfield situation extremely muddled. While Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan are solid, everyday starters in left and center field, respectively, the question of who will man right field becomes a serious issue. Of the team's current options, none is without considerable flaws. Willie Harris, in my opinion, would better serve the team as a utility man extraordinaire rather than an everyday player. Roger Bernadina has struggled throughout his young career with injuries and has yet to prove himself at the major league level. Chris Duncan is not even guaranteed to make the team and has managed only two hits in 21 at bats this spring. Justin Maxwell, a skilled defender with a questionable bat, is better suited to play center field; however, based on his major league experience last season, he may be forced to play in right. Ian Desmond seemed a potential alternative with his outstanding performance this spring, but general manager Mike Rizzo's assertion that the talented youngster would remain at shortstop this season closed the door on that option. It remains to be seen who will take Dukes' place, but what is clear is that whoever does will have as many - if not more - on-field question marks than Dukes did.

On Monday, Nationals' right-hander Chien-Ming Wang threw his first 25 pitches of the spring under the observation of pitching coach Steve McCatty. Wang, who is recovering from shoulder surgery on July 30 of last year, reported no pain during his session and expressed an interest in extending the workout. McCatty decided to shut him down in order to manage his workload on his recovering shoulder, but was encouraged by Wang's ball movement and physical progress.

Unfortunately, as Nats' fans are by now accustomed, this good news was accompanied by a negative development. Starting centerfielder Nyjer Morgan will be unable to improve his poor start (3-21, 2 stolen bases) for at least two games as he is forced to rest his injured right hamstring. Fortunately, the injury - which he suffered against the Cardinals on Sunday - is viewed as minor and the time off appears to be a precautionary measure as he remained in the game Sunday after injuring the hamstring in the first inning.

Finally, right-handed reliever Matt Capps has had to weather a rough start. After struggling with injuries to his throwing shoulder, Capps' rust has been evident in his performance. In five innings this spring, Capps has allowed eight hits and three walks for five total runs. For what it's worth, neither Manager Jim Riggleman nor Capps himself is particularly worried about his shaky outings. Capps stated:

Rich Coutinho reports that The New York Mets have discussed the possibility of trading for Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman. The Mets may be in the market for a shortstop as the result of Jose Reyes's emerging thyroid condition, which may leave him out several weeks for the beginning of the season.

The Mets, who despite high expectations have finished out of the playoffs for the past three seasons, are running out of patience in their newfound losing ways. There are those who believe the club feels they could not afford the slow start that would come as a result of not having an experienced everyday shortstop to start the season, this alone would be motivation enough for Mets General Manager Omar Minaya to make a move.

With the emergence of shortstop prospect Ian Desmond, the one major deterrent that has kept the Nationals from moving the 31-year-old shortstop has been his $8 million contract. With Guzman's speed and range quickly vanishing, few teams even with a need at shortstop would be willing to spend that kind of money for a quick fix, especially in today's market. One of the handful that might? The New York Mets.

The Mets, one of the richer teams in the league, would potentially eat his inflated salary and place him at shortstop until Reyes is able to compete again. At that point it would appear that the Mets would attempt to platoon Guzman and Luis Castillo. Castillo, 34, is the Mets version of Cristian Guzman as a former slap-hitting speedster that was given a contract which no longer fits him. For the Mets however, having another contributor who can split time with Castillo once Reyes returns may be one more benefit of making this deal.

In the meantime, the thought of a Guzman, Castillo middle infield is comical to anyone who views baseball through a sabermetric lens. While Castillo has grown to be a more selective batter, at one point in each of their careers they were both considered to be two of the least patient hitters in the league. What's worse, at this point in their careers they are both poor at fielding their respective positions.  Castillo posted a -10.4 UZR at second base in 2009, and Guzman posted a -2.3. Defensively, this has potential to be one of the worst middle-infield's in the majors.

For the Nationals it would provide a great deal of relief. The club is currently stuck with three options up the middle, each providing their own talents and abilities. The movement of Guzman would clear room for Desmond who would have the chance to succeed (or fail) at the major league level, and Kennedy would be able to play everyday.

With everything said, we've heard this song before. Every year there seems to be a story about a team strongly considering Guzman, only to taper off into the hot stove night. Will this finally be the farewell of the Nationals first major addition? Stay tuned.

Washington Post's Adam Kilgore reports that Jim Riggleman is likely leaning towards Garret Mock as the Nationals fifth starter:

"Yesterday afternoon, Manager Jim Riggleman said the competition had not reached a point where he felt comfortable choosing his five starting pitchers. He had an interesting way of answering that question in regard to Garrett Mock.

"We're pretty confident up to this point the way Lannan and Marquis and Mock, the way they've come in throwing," Riggleman said. "We kind of feel like they're doing what they need to be doing to nail down a spot. Mock is still competing for that spot, but he continues to make a nice progression."

Analysis:

Mock has been anything but perfect this spring for the Nationals, but to be honest, no one outside of Strasburg has. Mock has had three starts in Florida allowing four earned runs and twelve hits in nine innings. He has allowed two homers, but has struck out five without walking any, showing strong consistency and control with his above average

The Good Phight: Maybe?  There are so many factors that go into winning a World Series.  Luck and health are primarily among them.  Polanco is an upgrade with the bat (although maybe not as big as they'd hoped) and Roy Halladay is, well, Roy Halladay.  I do think that the Phillies, given their own quality and the general weakness of the National League, are in very good position to win another pennant.  But a lot can happen.

Washington's starting centerfielder, Nyjer Morgan, has stumbled out of the gates this spring, batting only .143 in 21 at-bats. While spring stats aren't something that should be taken very heavily, the Nationals outfielder has a sterling but troublingly short track record. Could it be possible that Morgan's brilliance in 2009 was more of a flash-in-the-pan than a breakout of a budding star?

Morgan capped off his first full major league season by putting together 212 outstanding plate appearances for the Nationals before getting hurt to end his 2009 campaign. Morgan, 28, batted .351/.396/.435 in Washington while helping to rejuvenate a club that was in need of any positive direction.

On top of his stellar offensive production in Washington, Morgan also played some of the best outfield defense in the majors. In 119 games he posted a 27.8 UZR and a 35.8 UZR/150, meaning if he had qualified he would have been the league leader in overall UZR. With the defense anchored by Morgan up the middle, the Nationals pitching instantly improved.

Despite Morgan's excellence in Washington last year, it was a small sample size in what has been a short career. What makes him so difficult to project is the fact that he lost several years of development by trying to become a professional hockey player. After receiving a college scholarship to play baseball, Morgan gave up the hockey dream and focused on playing between the lines. After being drafted in the 33^rd round, the speedster didn't make it to low A ball until he was 22, and didn't make it to the majors until he was 26.

Morgan's prior major league experience had been limited, but solid overall. He consistently hit above .290 and got on base at about .350. As we saw, however, he exploded after coming to Washington.

So what made Morgan so successful in July and August?

The big outlier is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which skyrocketed to .438 in July and .351 in August. Morgan has had a great career BABIP because of his speed, but one that high is unrealistic and unsustainable. So this is a likely cause his batting average and on base percentage jumped so much.  While we were excited about Morgan's high on base percentage (.418 in July and .371 in August), his walk percentage dropped to below six percent each month. The fact was that Morgan was getting on base with his speed and his inflated batting average, not his eye.

It wasn't all luck that improved his stats though. Morgan's ground-ball percentage improved in his final two months, hitting 60.3% of balls on the ground in August compared to 45.8% in March and April. Getting the ball down and in play goes a long way for someone with speed like Morgan, and it might explain the rise in his BABIP.  Morgan also benefitted in raising his ground-ball percentage by lowering his fly-ball percentage while keeping his line-drive percentage steady. This means in the month of August, 78 % of balls Morgan put into play were either on the ground or hit squarely.

Morgan also managed to hit fastballs way better in 2009 than he had in previous years. According to FanGraphs, he hit fastballs 14.5 runs above average in 2009 compared to a career mean of 3 runs above average.

It seems that Morgan's success in 2009 was a mix of fortunate luck and some legitimate improvements at the plate.  Yes, he hit at an unsustainable level when he came over to Washington, however in his third season in the majors he has learned how to make solid contact and uses his speed to make himself a weapon. He won't be a .350 hitter ever again, but it wouldn't be outrageous to expect him to hit .290-.310 while getting on base around .350. His Gold Glove caliber defense should be here to stay as well.