As the Nationals near the end of spring training and approach opening day, the starting rotation is beginning to take shape, and Craig Stammen appears to have secured a position. After having his season end last year with surgery to remove bone chips in his pitching elbow, the 26 year-old right-hander has thrown very well in the Grapefruit League. With four scoreless innings in his last outing, Stammen has posted a 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings pitched.

J.D. Martin is another candidate fighting for one of the final spots in the starting rotation. Unfortunately, his performance yesterday against the visiting Detroit Tigers did not compare to the standard that Stammen has set. In his first major league start since March 10, Martin retired the first two batters of the game before surrendering five runs on five hits in the first inning. The good news was that he retired the final 11 hitters he faced in five innings of work; however, the five-run first inning leaves a considerable stain on his case for a starting position.

Analysis:

With Martin's rough day, the fifth and final spot in the Nationals' starting rotation remains up in the air. The first four spots appear spoken for by John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Garrett Mock, and Craig Stammen; however, the last remains as uncertain as ever. Although Martin and Olsen (who will apparently have one final chance to "state his case" for a starting position, according to manager Jim Riggleman) have struggled mightily, Livan Hernandez has done yeoman's work. In eight innings this spring, Hernandez has allowed only two earned runs. Because of his performance, experience, and documented durability, I believe that he will be selected as the final pitcher to complete the Nationals' rotation.

Last Wednesday, Elijah Dukes was cut by the Nationals. The same Elijah Dukes that the organization was hoping to be their starting right fielder for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. The Nationals felt that he was never going to live up to his potential, that the league had caught on to his weaknesses (see: breaking ball), and that he was somewhat of a distraction in the clubhouse. The timing was strange with the season so close, but the Nationals must have felt that they had viable options for the position already in camp. The move begs one to question what the Nationals will do now in right field?

The first and most obvious choice is 31-year-old utility man Willie Harris. In two seasons with the Nationals, Harris has been a spark plug for the team, playing nearly the whole field and providing incredible hustle on a nightly basis. While Harris' defensive abilities in centerfield came under question last season (-6.9 UZR), he has the ability to be an above average defender in the corner OF positions. The problem with playing him in right field is his lack of experience (10.0 total innings in right) and average arm strength. And while he may be able to field like an everyday right fielder, he sure will not hit like one. His combined line for the previous two seasons has been .243/.354/.406, nowhere near what the average MLB right fielder produces at the plate. Compounding the problem is Harris' splits against left-handed pitchers in his career (.201 AVG) and in 2009 (.121 AVG).

Livan Hernandez had a solid start last night against a New York Yankees that started Jeter, Johnson, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Cano, Posada and Granderson. Hernandez earned the loss, but tossed five innings allowing only one earned run on three hits and three strikeouts. The start was one of the best any Nationals pitcher has had all spring, and will likely earn him a rotation spot once the season starts.

The outing was the first start of the spring for Hernandez who signed late with the Nationals, and his second appearance overall. In eight innings overall this season he has only allowed two earned runs and has struck out five.

Analysis: It seems again that Livan Hernandez has found his way into the Washington Nationals rotation. While a team like the Nationals would like to have young, developing arms on their squad, Hernandez provides a bit of stability that the younger guys can't. J.D. Martin and Craig Stammen will still likely compete for the final spot, as it seems Scott Olson may have pitched himself off the team. The rotation will likely change come late May, as Wang hopes to be healthy and Strasburg's time table for arbitration will be set back.

MetsBlog recaps the first day of camp for shortstop Jose Reyes. An elevated thyroid level is what has kept Reyes out, and restricted him from doing any baseball related activities.

This is certainly great news for the Mets as they get their star shortstop back weeks before his previously expected return. What a relief, even though Reyes has been sitting on a couch the past three weeks meaning he will have to spend even more time getting back into baseball shape. Now the question on everyone's mind is if he will be ready for Opening Day. There is no need to push an already fragile Reyes so he can play in the first few weeks of April, elevating his already high risk of injury. Until then, the battle for the position between Alex Cora and Ruben Tejeda continues...

Meanwhile, Mets Merized looks at an interesting situation developing in the race for the centerfield job between Gary Matthews Jr. and Angel Pagan. Statistically, Matthews should win the job but rumors have begun circulating that now the team is using him as trade bait to acquire another starting pitcher.

The Washington Nationals signed former closer Mike MacDougal to a minor league contract today, only one day after he had been cut from a camp-invite with the Florida Marlins. The flame-throwing righty saved 20 out of 21 games for the Nationals and posted a 3.60 ERA with the club in 52 games to seemingly rejuvinate the Nationals bullpen in 2009. However MacDougal, 32, allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched in his spring stint with Florida, walking seven and only striking out two.

The Nationals surprised some this winter when they elected to non-tender MacDougal, who was up for arbitration. Due to his stellar stint with Washington in 2009, and his previous contract, MacDougal was in line to make upwards of $3 million in arbitration. But with an off-season hip surgery and a history of inconsistency, the Nationals decided to let him test the market. In the end it turned out to be a smart move, as the Nationals sign him for a minor league deal worth about $800-900 K. By waiting to sign MacDougal until, almost literally, the last minute, the Nationals saved at-least $2 million dollars. What's even more encouraging is that the Nationals have been monitoring MacDougal and believe they know what they can tweak to bring him back to his 2009 form.

Letting go of MacDougal was a risky move for a team who had arguably the worst bullpen in baseball in 2009. Rizzo took the gutsy move of letting go of his best bullpen hand in order to free up room to go after other elements. One of them was former Yankees ace, Chien-Ming Wang. The Nats landed Wang for $2 million dollars this winter, and could very well end up being the best signing in the National League when it's all said and done this year.

MacDougals 2010 Projections

Bill James: 4.43 ERA, 7.93 K/9, 5.24 BB/9
CHONE: 4.67 ERA, 7.67 K/9, 6.00 BB/9
MARCEL: 4.50 ERA, 6.67 K/9, 5.00 BB/9

First let me qualify this by saying, like most Nationals fans, I hope Adam Dunn develops to become a quality, or even replacement level first basemen. But after the slugging outfielder took a 67 game hack at first base and posted a UZR/150 of -25, many are skeptical if the 30-year-old can make the change.

That's not to say that Dunn hasn't put forth the effort. He has trained this offseason in Jiu-Jitsu (could you imagine being his sparring partner?) in hopes of improving his hand-eye coordination and agility. He has also expressed that he truly enjoys playing defense and that he wants to get better, which you can take however you want. Either way the real question is, what are the odds that Adam Dunn can actually develop into a quality first basemen?

To figure this out I looked at all players who registered over 100 games in a season at first base between the years of 2002 and 2009 who had also registered 100 games in a season in the outfield earlier in their. What I wanted to gauge was how effectively players in the past have adapted defensively from being full-time outfielders to full-time first basemen. I looked at the years 2002-09 due to the limitations of UZR fielding metrics.

What I found was that only 12 players had successfully moved from a fulltime outfielder to a fulltime first baseman, completing at least one season at each position. Among them were Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Rafael Palmeiro, Wil Cordero, Shawn Green, Ryan Klesko, Jeff Conine, Robert Fick, Darin Erstad, Richie Sexon, Kevin Millar and Russell Branyan.

In that group three players, Palmeiro, Erstad, and Pujols, went on to win a Gold Glove at first base. Pujols was already considered a plus-fielder when he made the switch and had infield experience as a former third-baseman. Rafael Palmeiro is a bit of an outlier here because he only played one full season in the outfield and that was in 1988, almost 10 years before he won his Gold Glove at first. Erstad, who despite the flack he receives from many, was actually a very gifted defender at every position he played, posting a career UZR/150 of 21.2 in the outfield and 8.7 at first.

Two others, Robert Fick and Shawn Green, were also able to convert outfield experience into infield success. Green, a former Gold Glove winner in the outfield posted a career UZR/150 of 3.7 at first base, and Fick, a former catcher posted an 8.0 UZR/150. Once again both these players had a defensive track record to prove they were adept to defense, and Fick, as a former catcher, had experience picking balls out of the dirt and playing in the infield.

Three of the players in the group , Klesko, Branyan, and Berkman went on to become average first basemen, posting a UZR/150 between zero and two. Branyan, a former third baseman, once again had experience playing infield, so the transition likely wasn't as difficult. Berkman had no infield experience but earlier in his career was considered a plus outfielder when he came up, and Klesko was a fleet footed athlete who could move around the bag well.

Four of the players in the group went on to post a career UZR/150 below zero. They were Richie Sexon, Kevin Millar, Wil Cordero, and Jeff Conine. Unfortunately for Dunn, he likely has more in common with the players in this group. Most of these players were considered large, slower men who hit for power and never really fielded their positions well. The change to first for these players, like with Dunn, was to keep their bat in the line-up while minimizing their defensive liability.

A sweeping look at the list of 12 players shows that those who were successful at moving to first base had at least one of two things in common. They either had infield experience, meaning that moving hundreds of feet closer to the plate wasn't a huge adjustment for them, or they had a great defensive track record, meaning they had proven to be adept to using their glove. Unfortunately for the Nationals, Dunn fits niether of those bills.

It's very possible that with the sluggers size and age, he's just too big and old to learn a position that, quite honestly, requires the most flexibility of any position. If Dunn has a poor track record of reading and chasing down fly balls, won't it be just as hard for him to learn to read a throw that is traveling across the infield at 90 MPH, and know just where to put his glove so he can pick it? Wont it be hard for him to switch from holding a runner on to being in a defensive position to field a ball in mere seconds?  What about charging the plate on a bunt? All of these things are harder to do than reading a fly ball.

It will be a difficult road for Dunn, but he has expressed that he has the desire to improve, and it appears genuine. If he can do it, he will be shutting a lot of people up, including this writer, but I wouldn't count on it happening.

In what may have been his final audition for a position in the Nationals' starting rotation, left-handed starting pitcher Scott Olsen had a very rough outing. Facing what closely resembled the Detroit Tigers' opening day lineup, Olsen surrendered six runs and twelve hits in 4.1 innings pitched. Tigers' third baseman Brandon Inge and catcher Gerald Laird both hit fifth inning home runs, and, despite claiming that his shoulder feels fine following season-ending surgery last July, Olsen struggled mightily. With at most one start left in spring training, Olsen needs to exhibit drastically superior command and effectiveness to have a chance to make the Nationals' rotation.

In other news, former Nationals starting catcher Jesus Flores reported to Viera today. While Flores appears to be healing nicely from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder (slight inflammation remains), no projected deadline has been established for his return. The team will allow him to progress and rehabilitate the injured arm at his own pace in order to ensure a full recovery.

Brooklyn Mets Fan gives us his input on the race between 12-year veteran Alex Cora and 20-year-old Ruben Tejada for who will be the Opening Day shortstop as they vie for the temporarily vacant position until the return of Jose Reyes.

Personally, having just seen Tejada play in an exhibition last week I am still uncertain as to what type of player Tejada really is. Although he has been swinging a hot bat all spring with a .349 average, I am being careful not to fall into the Lastings Milledge, Anderson Hernandez, and (possibly) Fernando Martinez trap. Cora may be the smarter decision but having Tejada promoted gives the Mets much needed excitement as they will begin the season without two of their stars in Reyes and Carlos Beltran. While the other more highly touted prospects, first baseman Ike Davis, pitcher Jenrry Mejia, and outfielder Fernando Martinez will probably start the year in the minors, don't be surprised to see the young shortstop at Citi Field in April trying to make an impact with the big ballclub.