It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for those fans in attendance at Nats park this weekend. On Saturday, fans were delighted to watch an absolute pitching gem by a pitcher who belongs to a significant part of the franchise's brief history in the District. The following day, those same fans watched their prized offseason acquisition implode on the mound for the second start in a row. In the rubble of destruction from the failure of his first three starts, that pitcher left many unanswered questions as to his future role in the organization. Examining these two pitchers, Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis, side by side presents an interesting and stark contrast.

Entering free agency, Mike Rizzo and the Nationals had the stated goal of improving the pitching of a team that at one point during the 2009 season featured four rookie starting pitchers and John Lannan, the team's ace by default. Their first move, in what ended up being a relatively busy offseason, was to sign the former Colorado pitcher Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million contract. The contract would become their most expensive move of the season for the Nationals and Marquis would be touted by the front office as an innings eater and a guy that could serve as a mentor to the young pitchers on the team with similar pitching styles. Marquis made the All-Star team for the National League last season, but then suffered a decline in production during the second half that should have served as a warning sign to the next team that signed him. His ERA jumped from 3.65 to 4.56 and his WHIP went from 1.31 to 1.48. Things got so bad, that the Rockies even decided to leave him out of the NLDS rotation.

Lost in the shuffle of the various signings made by the Nationals this offseason, was the resigning of veteran pitcher Livan Hernandez to a minor league contract. Five years earlier, when baseball returned to Washington D.C., Livan had been the team's stopper. Pitching 246.1 innings with a 3.98 ERA and 15 wins to his name, Hernandez was a large part of the Nationals push for a wild card spot in 2005. He was later traded in 2006 to the Diamondbacks for Matt Chico and Garrett Mock, two players that he beat out in spring training to make this year's team. After getting traded from the Nats, he bounced around to different teams until he resigned with the team last season as they shut down some of their younger pitchers who had reached their inning limits for the year. For his part, Livo, who has not been as sharp as he was for the Nats in 2005, claims that he injured himself by pitching too much late in the season for the team as they made a push for the playoffs. It should be noted, however, that he was not angry about it and also said this spring training that it was the first time since the injury that he was at full strength. In retrospect and based off of early returns, it appears that the Nationals may have offered the wrong guy the guaranteed contract.

The Washington Nationals (6-6) continue their home stand with four games against the Colorado Rockies (6-6). The Nationals are coming off a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers in which they took the first two before dropping the final game. The first game featured a three-run eighth inning that fueled a 5-3 win, while Saturday's 8-0 victory featured Livan Hernandez's four-hit shutout.

Unfortunately, the series ended with an 11-7 loss.  The Nationals offense fought furiously to come back; however, Milwaukee's ten-run first inning (in which Nationals' starter Jason Marquis failed to record an out against the seven batters he faced) was too great a deficit to overcome. That said, the team should be happy with its .500 start and look to build on its series win.

The Rockies on the other hand enter this series coming off a season that saw them return to the playoffs in 2009. Like the Nationals, the Rockies had a terrible start to last season (19-28) that led to the firing of then manager Clint Hurdle. Under new skipper Jim Tracy the Rockies rallied to make the playoffs with a 92-70 record. The Rockies are out to prove this season that with their influx of young talent and their core of veteran leadership, they can be a force in the west for years to come.

ROCKIES LAST SERIES

The Colorado Rockies come to Washington after dropping two of three to the Atlanta Braves. After losing the first game when Atlanta's seven-run second proved insurmountable, the story of the series was Ubaldo Jimenez's game two no-hitter. Aided by a spectacular defensive play by Dexter Fowler, Jimenez walked six and struck out seven on 128 pitches in the first no-hitter in Colorado franchise history. The team was unable to build on the momentum, however, losing the third and final game on a two-run, walk-off single by rookie sensation Jason Heyward.

WHO'S HOT?

Brad Hawpe: 4-7, 2B, RBI

Ubaldo Jimenez: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 7 K

WHO'S NOT?

Dexter Fowler: 1-12

PROBABLE STARTERS

Monday, Apr. 19: Aaron Cook (0-1, 5.56) vs. Craig Stammen (0-0, 15.63)

Tuesday, Apr. 20: Jorge De La Rosa (1-1, 2.77) vs. Scott Olsen (0-0, 6.35)

Wednesday, Apr. 21: Jason Hammel (0-1, 11.42) vs. John Lannan (1-1, 5.74)

Thursday, Apr. 22: TBA vs. Livan Hernandez (2-0, 0.00)

CAN NATS' STARTERS REVERSE EARLY SEASON WOES?

Outside of Hernandez, the Nationals' three projected starters in this series all sport ERAs above 5.00, and the team ERA is second-to-last in the majors. Unfortunately, this trio of Stammen, Olsen, and Lannan does not even include Marquis, who is currently 0-3 with a 20.52 ERA. The Rockies' offense, while not pedestrian, is not the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Phillies. Hopefully Colorado, who ranks 11^th, 12^th, and 15^th in the majors in home runs, batting average, and runs, respectively, will provide a welcome respite for the battered Nationals' rotation.

CAN THE ROCKIES STAFF CONTINUE THE POWER OUTAGE?

The Nationals, with Ryan Zimmerman ailing and Adam Dunn struggling, rank in the bottom five of all teams in home runs. Despite Zimmerman's return, the Rockies' should be able to continue to limit the home team's dingers. Colorado has allowed the fewest home runs in the majors (seven) despite playing half its games at notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field. In coming to Washington, a neutral to pitcher-friendly park, it would seem that the Rockies' staff would have the advantage. Perhaps this series will do much to suggest whether or not the Rockies' opponents' low home run totals are a trend or an anomaly.

Affiliate Standings
Syracuse (7-3, 1st place, 0 GB)
Harrisburg (2-9, 6th place, 7 GB)
Potomac (4-6, t-2nd place, 2 GB)
Hagerstown (6-5, t-1st place, 0 GB)

Batter of the Week - Destin Hood, RF, Hagerstown

After a week in which he had 5 multi-hit games, the 20-year-old Hood is finally starting to live up to the potential that prompted the Nationals to use their 2nd round pick on him in 2008. Just how good was Hood this week? Try 15 hits, 8 runs, and 6 RBI good. He even hit a deep ball against Lakewood for his first home run of the season and showed off his cannon of an arm by throwing out a runner at first on a ball hit to the outfield. Hood has an intimidating amount of power and is a threat to opposing teams as long as he is making contact, which remains the major flaw in his game. Hood, a former two-sport athlete who is still incredibly young and raw, has struggled with laying off of breaking balls in the dirt. In fact most of his 16 strikeouts have come on these types of pitches. His lack of patience at the plate has also resulted in a very low amount of walks throughout his professional career. For his entire career with the Nationals organization, he has drawn only 20 walks (in 200+ PA)! For the 2010 season, he has a 16:1 SO:BB ratio. While he has displayed great potential in the other areas of his game, this weakness will likely keep him Hagerstown for much of the year, because the Nationals are not going to let him face better pitchers until he improves his selectivity at the plate. But if his batting eye does improve, watch out, because this kid could be something special for the Nationals one day.

Pitcher of the Week - Luis Atilano, SP, Syracuse

Atilano had two starts this week and picked up the win in both of them. In 11.0 innings pitched, he let up 10 hits, 2 walks, and 2 earned runs. He struck out 9 batters. In his first start of the season, Atilano worked efficiently, only facing three batters more than the minimum. He had a bit more trouble in his second start, allowing 8 hits over 5 innings, but worked well out of jams and induced two double play balls that got him safely out of trouble. He kept the ball low in the strike zone and as a result ended the game with 8 groundouts vs. 3 flyouts. He has yet to face more than five batters in any inning he has pitched. Atilano, besides his spring debut, also pitched pretty well for the Nationals in spring training this year and Riggs noted that the Nationals were looking at Atilano to be a starting pitcher for them down the road. After two starts, Atilano leads Syracuse's starting pitchers in ERA, wins, and strikeouts. He is on the 40-man roster and could move himself up in the pecking order with some more starts like his first two of the season.

Runner-ups: Jeff Kobernus, J.P. Ramirez, Aaron Thompson

Top Prospect Watch

It looks like Michael Burgess probably made some offseason adjustments to his swing. There had been criticisms that his swing was too long and he would need to compact it more in order to cut down his strikeout percentage and to be able to survive higher level pitching. So far in 47 plate appearences, Burgess has struck out only five times, compared to his 135 strikeouts in 549 plate appearances last season. The power he has shown in previous seasons, though, appears to be missing. He has yet to hit a home run, but does have three doubles so far in the young minor league season.

Drew Storen may find himself in the Washington bullpen very soon. Building off of his success in Harrisburg and Phoenix last year, Storen continues to dominate against minor league hitters. So far in four appearances, Storen has allowed only one hit and one walk while striking out five.

Another high draft pick, Jeffery Kobernus, is starting to catch fire. The second baseman had a monster game (4 for 5 with a double and 2 RBIs) against Lakewood on Tuesday, including the hit that brought home the game winning run. He is hitting .357/.386/.405 for the season so far and may be in line for a quick promotion after missing the end of last season with an injury. There has been one problem area of his game, though. In four stolen base attempts, he has been caught three times.

Odds and Ends

- Pitcher Danny Rosenbaum, last week's pitcher of the week, continues to impress. He has allowed only a single earned run in his three starts. His ERA currently sits at 0.52 and his WHIP at 0.63.

- A.J. Morris made his Potomac debut after starting the season on the DL. He pitched 3 innings and let up 4 hits, 3 walks, and 1 earned run before reaching his pitch limit. Catcher Derek Norris also returned to action for the P-Nats.

- P-Nats relief pitcher Cole Kimball has pitched 7.1 scoreless innings thus far. He has only let up 3 hits and is hoping to have a bounce back year after a rough 2009 with Potomac.

- Converted starter Erik Arnesen is thriving in his new relief role. Arnesen's ERA stands at 0.90 after ten innings of relief work.

A day after one of the more exciting wins in recent Nationals-memory, Washington erased much of the collective momentum they had built by allowing 10 earned runs in the first inning of Sundays game against the Brewers. While Washington was able to clamp down and hold Milwaukee to only one earned run for the rest of the game, and added seven runs of their own thourghout the contest, it wasn't enough as the Nationals fell back to .500 with an 11-7 loss at home.

More disappointing than the offensive explosion the Nationals allowed was the fact it came off of a pitcher the club spent good money to attain this offseason to help them do just the opposite. Marquis was inked to a two-year $15 million deal to be a workhorse for a rotation that struggled to get quality major league innings, however after three starts this season he has yet to work his way past the fourth inning. This has now come to a head today as Marquis failed to record even one out before being yanked after allowing seven earned runs, a walk, and four hits.

Hernandez Number Crunching: Livan Hernandez threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout today, only allowing four hits and two walks while striking out three Brewers. When you break down what he really did with his pitches, his outing becomes that much more amazing. In his 112 pitches:

- He threw only 66 strikes, only 59%

-He reached a maximum velocity of 87.1 MPH on the day, and a low of 63 MPH.

-His fastball averaged 84.5 MPH, his sinker 84.37 MPH, his changeup 78.06 MPH, his slider 80.21 MPH, and his curveball a BLISTERING 65.56 MPH.

- He only forced a grand total of four swinging strikes.

Analysis: There terms crafty veteran and junkballer were invented for guys like Hernandez. While he can no longer reach anywhere close to 90 MPH on the gun at a consistent rate anymore, he is still able to keep hitters off balance by changing speeds. As you can see in the chart to the left, even though his fastball isn't blowing anyone away it can still be effective because it is so much faster than his curveball and changeup. This isn't causing batters to swing and miss (only four swinging strikes) but it's forcing weak contact.

Return of the Zimm: No better way to test a hamstring than by legging out two doubles. Zimmerman returned full-time to the line up today and was able to stroke two doubles, draw a walk, and drive in two runs. He also made a great diving stab in the field.

MASN held their Second Annual Blogger Day this afternoon at Nationals Park, welcoming Nats bloggers into the MASN Suite for a special day of baseball. While I was unable to attend, my father, Papa Yoder, pinch-hit and was able to write up a game summary from his experience. Overall he said it was a great time and that MASN treated the bloggers very well. They enjoyed visits from Carpenter, Dibble, and a special visit from Ray Knight which was quite a treat for my dad (an old Mets fan at heart).

Here's the write-up from Papa Yoder:

In 2005, Livan Hernandez pitched the Nationals to victory in their first-ever home game and the Nats surprised and delighted us all by remaining at or near the top of the Eastern Division until the All Star break. Unfortunately, the Nats eventually tailed off, finishing that inaugural season at .500, and failing to reach even that break-even level during any season since.

But there is a clear sense in the air that this year is different. For the last few years, many of the Nats players have seemed satisfied just to have a job in the big leagues. Any games they won were a pleasant surprise. But that attitude is no longer accepted. Mike Rizzo cleaned house this winter, bringing in a mixture of players with a bright future, and players who have won in the past and desperately want to win again. The front office has been greatly upgraded by hiring talent from other teams. The attitude has changed from "it is OK to lose while we are in a building mode" to "we want to win now and win more later."

Brian Bruney won a World Championship ring with the Yankees last season, and he was showing it off to some of the other players in the clubhouse yesterday. Other new acquisitions Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Kennedy also have rings.. They know what it takes to win a championship, and they have helped the younger players on the team to believe that they can win one too. In Washington. Perhaps not this year - but soon. There is a buzz, in the clubhouse, an excitement about what this team can become. The Nats may not be a contender just yet - but they expect to win more often than they lose - and that is a huge step forward.

The Nats awoke on Saturday to find themselves at 5 wins, 5 losses, the latest that they had held a .500 record in any season since 2005. And, just like on that other April day almost exactly five years ago, Livan Hernandez, who also has a ring, was on the mound.. Livan did not start off well. He stranded a runner in the first and walked the bases loaded in the second. Though he had managed to avoid giving up any runs, Livan did not seem fated to pitch long today .

Asked to identify the single biggest difference between this year's team and previous squads, those who travel with the team consistently give one answer: Ivan Rodriguez. It is not just that Ivan has been hitting (though that helps) but it is his leadership, his work ethic, and his handling of the pitching staff that has made the difference. Ivan wants to win - he will not accept losing, and he works extremely hard to keep in shape. His attitude is contagious.

In the bottom of the second inning today, Ivan stepped to the plate and demonstrated some of that leadership by singling in the first run of the game. Before the crowd had finished cheering, Justin Maxwell blasted a two run homer to dead centerfield to give the Nats a 3-0 lead. Then Ivan went to work with his pitcher to make sure that the lead would hold up. And from that point forward, Livan was masterful, completely shutting down the Brewers and allowing only two more singles the rest of the way.

When Ivan drove in two more runs with a double in the sixth, to make the score 6-0, Nats fans were treated to an experience that they have had few chances to enjoy over the past five years. With three innings left in the game, victory felt secure. The only real question remaining was whether Livan could hang on to get the eighth complete game shutout of his career. He did, despite some shaky fielding by second baseman Cristian Guzman and aided by a Brooksian diving play by Ryan Zimmarman. Final score: Nats 8- Miwaukee 0.

With todays win, the Nats pulled into a tie for third place. And by the end of the day, if Atlanta and Florida lose, the Nats could be tied for second. Perhaps it is only April, but it feels good to be in a pennant race.

John Lannan pitched seven strong innings innings tonight allowing only two earned while striking out five and scattering seven hits. The quality start put the Nationals in position to strike late in the game for the second night in a row, rallying to a three run eighth inning for their second come-back victory in as many nights.

The Nationals chances of winning dropped precipitously following Cristian Guzman's double play with two runners on in the seventh. In typical fashion, Guzman attacked the first pitch he saw and ended the rally with one fell swoop. The play had the biggest negative impact of the game (-.204 WPA) for the Nationals, representing an opportunity lost and bringing their win expectancy from 70.4% to 50%. Things got worse in the bottom of the eighth as Brian Bruney came on in relief and allowed a leadoff single to Casey McGehee (-.068 WPA). With one runner on the Nationals botched a sacrifice attempt by Brewers batter Carlos Gomez on a throwing error by Alberto Gonzalez (-.192 WPA), allowing McGehee to get all the way to third. The next play was a sacrifice fly, scoring the run. The three plays dropped the Nationals chances of winning from 50% all the way to 24.3 in a late inning situation.

The Nats mounted a comeback in the eighth after Gonzalez made amends for his error with a single (.097 WPA) and Willingham got hit by a pitch (.135 WPA). Ian Desmond laid down a sacrifice and Adam Kennedy came up big with a single scoring the two runners (.303 WPA). Wil Nieves hit a single of his own after Kennedy stole second to add an insurance run. With the rally the Nationals improved their win expectancy from 32% to 91.9% in one inning.

For the Nationals improving to .500 was a nice touch, but as an organization they have to be more pleased with how John Lannan pitched tonight. The club's ace had been shaky in his first two starts, combining for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 8.2 innings pitched while walking six and only striking out two. Lannan was able to regain his 2009 form by adjusting his release point which allowed him to regain his control and better attack the strike zone. For a pitcher who lives and dies on getting ahead in the count, like Lannan does, not throwing strikes can lead to more starts like his Apr. 5 outing where he only lasted 3.2 innings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Above is the pitch chart and release point for Lannan's first start on Apr. 5 against the Phillies where he allowed five earned runs and three walks in 3.2 innings. As you can see on the left his pitches were all over the place, he had trouble hitting the zone. If you look to the right you will see that his release point, while tight, is much lower than his 2009 spot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is Lannan's pitch chart from tonight's stellar performance. As you can see the lefty attacked the zone much more tonight, which allowed him to get ahead in the count and force pitchers to chase the pitches he wanted to throw, instead of falling behind and throwing hitters pitches. If you look to the right you will see he had a much better release point, while it may not have been as tight (consistent) it was higher which led to better overall control.

The Nationals (4-5) return home tonight to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (4-5). The Nationals look to improve upon what has been a poor performance against the "Brew Crew" the last three seasons, posting a 7-15 record vs. Milwaukee from 2007-09. This season, though, may be different. Both teams will enter tonight's game with a record of 4-5 and the winner of the series will end up at .500 with a sweep putting either team a game above that mark.

The Nationals just finished a series with the reigning NCLS champions, the Philadelphia Phillies, in which they were able to squeak out a win in the series finale on the back of a solid debut by Scott Olsen. The Nationals are already one win away from their overall total against Philly last season (3) and will be relieved to know that the former World Series Champions will not be on the schedule again until July 30th. The series against Brewers will mark the beginning of a 10-game homestand that will include games against Milwaukee, Colorado, and the L.A. Dodgers.

The Brewers on the other hand are a team who enter the season the rebound. The club is trying to recover from a 2009 season that saw them finish with a disappointing losing record of 80-82. Just one year earlier, in 2008, Milwaukee had made the playoffs for the first time in 26 years by claiming the wild-card with a 90-72 record. With back-to-back winning seasons under their belt, and a bevy of young talent, the Brewers hoped to improve in 2009 but stalled with injuries and poor play from youngsters.

BREWERS LAST SERIES

The Brewers are coming off a series against the Cubs in Chicago in which they won one of three. Their bats were alive for much of the series, as they scored 19 runs, but their pitching was weak at times allowing the Cubs to outscore them with 22 runs. The biggest culprits were Doug Davis (6 ER in 3.1 IP) and Latroy Hawkins (4 ER and a BS). The bullpen was also taxed quite a bit, having to pitch 10.2 innings, though the Nationals pen put in more work with 13.2 innings pitched.

Who's Hot:

Ryan Braun (LF): 7/14, 4 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI
Casey McGehee (3B): .333 AVG, 8 RBI, 3 HR for the season
Carlos Villanueva (RP): 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO

Who's Not:

Prince Fielder (1B): 4/12, 5 LOB, 0 HR, 1 RBI
Jim Edmonds (CF): 3/9, 9 LOB, 3 SO, 0 RBI

PROBABLE STARTERS
Friday - Yovanni Gallardo (0-2, 6.75) vs. John Lannan (1-1, 8.31)
Saturday - Randy Wolf (1-0, 4.05) vs. Livan Hernandez (1-0, 0.00)
Sunday - Doug Davis (0-1, 12.27) vs. Jason Marquis (0-2, 12.96)

A TEAM OF THIEVES

Last season, the Nationals ended the 2009 campaign with 73 stolen bases as a team. Entering tonight's game, the team already has 1/7 of last year's total with 11 stolen bases and lead the National League in that category. The team had seven stolen bags in the the last Phillies series alone and even got some surprise swipes by Pudge and Willingham, in addition to an attempt by Dunn which was negated by a foul ball. Jim Riggleman is much more willing to pull the trigger than his predeccesor, Manny Acta, was, but he is also aided by the additions of guys like Nyger Morgan and Ian Desmond to the line-up. In addition, the team has an arsenal of other speedy outfielders, such as Willy Taveras, Justin Maxwell, and Willie Harris, who are threats to run anytime they are on base. The extra speed means many different things for the team, but most importantly it means more runners in scoring position and more guys that can make it from first to third on hit and runs and balls knocked to the outfield. Look for Riggleman to continue to put up the green light for these guys in the Brewers series in an attempt to better position baserunners and keep the opposing pitchers off-guard.

LEFTY HEAVY

The Nationals sent down Roger Bernadina this week in order to call up Justin Maxwell due to the string of left-handed pitchers that are about to come through D.C. in the coming week. In the next five games alone, the Nationals will face three lefties in Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, and Jorge De La Rosa. This means that Willy Taveras, Ian Desmond, and Justin Maxwell will see more time this week at the expense of LHB Adam Kennedy and Willie Harris. Two Nationals in particular, Josh Willingham (.429/.500/.929) and Ivan Rodriguez (.400/.500/.600) have been killing lefties so far this season, though the sample size is still quite small.