Three games, three leads, three losses. The Washington Nationals (33-43) jumped out to a 3-0 lead n yesterday afternoon's game before yielding four unanswered runs in their third consecutive loss to the woeful Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles (23-52) had lost 13 straight series entering their three contests with the Nationals; however, Washington proved to be Baltimore's perfect rebound opponent. Jeremy Guthrie kept the Orioles close with his first quality start in over three weeks, and Miguel Tejada drove in Corey Patterson in the bottom of the eighth to hand Tyler Clippard his fifth loss and complete the series sweep.

The theme of this series was Washington's inability to close. In the three games the Nationals took leads of 6-0, 5-0, and 3-0 yet still managed to drop three one-run contests. In such a closely contested series, fundamentals and details are often the difference between victory and defeat. In this case - as has been the case throughout the entire season -the Nationals were done in, at least in part, by their continually porous defense. Washington committed five errors in three games (four in the first alone) which led to five unearned Oriole runs. Shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Cristian Guzman each made two errors in Friday's loss, their ninth and eighteenth on the season, respectively. Unfortunately, removing them from the lineup did not result in the defensive improvement manager Jim Riggleman and the Nats had hoped for. Adam Kennedy made a throwing error trying to complete a double play that led to the game-tying run in the fifth. Once again the Nationals were let down by their defense, the worst in baseball.

For the second consecutive night, the Nationals (33-42) could not hold on to their large early lead over the Orioles (22-52). Washington dropped the second game of the series in Baltimore 6-5, putting the Nats in danger of being swept by one of their biggest rivals.

The Nationals jumped out to an early lead in the game when in the top of the third, where contributions from Adam Dunn, Ivan Rodriguez, and Roger Bernadina helped Washington put four big runs on the board. In the top of the fourth the Nats decided to play a little small ball to manufacture their runs. Ian Desmond led of the inning with a single to center, then with Nyjer Morgan batting, he successfully stole second base putting a run in scoring position with no outs. Now with Desmond at second, Morgan laid down a sacrifice bunt moving Desmond to third with just one out. Cristian Guzman then got the job done by hitting a sacrifice fly to Nick Markakis in right field, scoring Desmond. If that's not fundamental baseball then I don't know what is.

The Orioles began chipping away in the bottom of the fourth after an Adam Jones solo shot, but the real damage came in the next inning. Cesar Izturis led off the bottom of the fifth with a single, followed by a Corey Patterson double that put a runner at second and third with none out. Both of those runners scored on back-to-back RBI singles by Miguel Tejada and Nick Markakis, tying the game at 5-5.

The Washington Nationals (33-41) lost a heartbreaker last night to the Baltimore Orioles (21-52) by a score of 7-6 at Camden Yards. The Nationals held a commanding 6-0 lead going into the bottom of the fifth but could not seal the deal in the later part of the game due to the Baltimore bullpen silencing the Nationals bats and a poor performance by Tyler Clippard.

In the top of the third the Nationals scored their second and third runs of the game thanks in part to an Adam Dunn sacrifice fly scoring Nyjer Morgan and a base hit by Ivan Rodriquez scoring Christian Guzman. With a 3-0 lead heading in the bottom of the third one of the most amazing plays of the year occurred in center field. On a ball hit by Corey Patterson that was destined to land over the fence, Nyjer Morgan raced back and dug one foot into the wall, literally propelling himself up a few more feet to make the grab of Patterson's home run. Morgan's catch was the first time in a while where a play made me say "wow".

The Nationals continued to pour it on in the top of the fourth with none other than Nyjer Morgan hitting a ground rule double to left-center field scoring Ian Desmond and an Adam Dunn double on a line drive to right scoring Morgan and Ryan Zimmerman, giving Dunn a game high 4 RBI on the night.

Baltimore began to chip away in the fifth with Nationals starter J.D. Martin on his last legs. The fifth began with more errors by the National defense, when Julio Lugo reached base after a fielding error by Ian Desmond. Cesar Izturis then singled on a ball hit to left moving Lugo to second giving the Orioles men on first and second with none out. Corey Patterson followed Izturis with a line drive to right giving Baltimore the bases loaded with none out. Martin remained in the game to see a Miguel Tejada sacrifice fly and a Nick Markakis potential double play ball that Desmond threw away, scoring Izturis.

REGIONAL RIVALS

The Washington Nationals (33-40) have struggled in interleague play this season. Despite taking two of three from the Kansas City Royals earlier this week, the Nationals are 5-10 against the American League in 2010. Providing hope to Nationals fans is the fact that two of those wins came against the hapless Baltimore Orioles. Their three May meetings were all tightly contested, with the Orioles winning the opener by a score of 5-3 before dropping the following two games by one run each, 7-6 and 4-3.

The Orioles (20-52) offer a good chance for Washington to return to its winning ways from April and May. Baltimore has lost 13 straight series dating back to a May 11-13 three-gamer against the Seattle Mariners, and the Orioles have gone 9-28 since. That time period also encompasses the entirety of their interleague schedule to date in which they have just four wins against 11 losses, a microcosm of their painfully inept season. Our neighbors to the north have the worst winning percentage in all of baseball (.278) - five games below the second worst team (Pittsburgh) - and stand 25 games out of first place in the brutally competitive AL East. The Nationals will look to extend Baltimore's unenviable streak to 14 consecutive series and show the Orioles that the American League does not have a monopoly on potent East division clubs.

WHO'S HOT?

Miguel Tejada: 8-14, HR, 4 runs, 4 RBI

Adam Jones: 7-13, 2B, 2 HR, 4 runs, 3 RBI

WHO'S NOT?

Scott Moore: 1-8, 3 Ks

Jeremy Guthrie: Last 5 starts - 32.1 IP, 34 H, 20 ER, 0-5 record

PROBABLE STARTERS

Friday, June 25: J.D. Martin (0-3, 3.55) vs. Jake Arrieta (2-1, 5.06)

Saturday, June 26: Livan Hernandez (6-4, 2.82) vs. Brad Bergesen (3-4, 6.50)

Sunday, June 27: Luis Atilano (6-4, 4.52) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (3-9, 4.28)

O'S WOES

A large factor in the Orioles' struggles has been its impotent offense. The Orioles rank in the bottom third of the league in virtually every major offensive statistic, including but not limited to runs, hits, home runs, on base percentage, slugging percentage, batting average, and stolen base percentage. Of Baltimore's myriad weaknesses, this is perhaps the most surprising. While the Orioles' youthful rotation figured to experience a number of bumps in the road - particularly when facing the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees - the offense was rife with promise. The outfield featured sluggers Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold, and the infield boasted veterans Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, and Garrett Atkins. With the anticipated emergence of proclaimed star-in-waiting Matt Wieters, the O's offense was its presumed strength. Evidently, that has not been the case. Roberts has been injured, Markakis has apparently lost his power stroke (3 HRs), and Atkins, Reimold, and Wieters are all hitting .226 or lower.

Unfortunately, Baltimore's pitching has been as weak as expected. The Orioles' rank in the bottom three in baseball in strikeouts, home runs, earned runs, ERA, opponents' slugging, and opponents average. Their starters have been especially poor, ranking second to last in the league with a 5.25 ERA. Free agent addition Kevin Millwood has been an abject bust. Expected to serve as the team's ace and mentor its young pitching prospects, Millwood has gone just 2-8 in 16 starts with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, and opponents are batting .299 against him this season. The Nationals have the misfortune of missing his spot in the rotation this weekend; however, the young Oriole arms that Washington stands to face are not much better. 

Not long after Stephen Strasburg's debut, I started hearing a lot of people repeating the same thing: that Strasburg was going to inspire his teammates to play well enough to lift the team to the playoffs. It got me thinking about what kind of effect hyped pitchers really do have on their teammates. Because data was difficult to gather, I had to make some decisions early on in my process about which kind of players I would look at and how I would measure the "prodigy effect" or, as the Nationals know it, the Strasburg Effect.

I decided I would look at the performance of starting pitchers on the same team as various "pitching prodigies" for, at most, the first two months of the same season after the pitcher joined the team as compared with their "three year averages" (with some exceptions) using the year before, year after, and same year that the prodigy joined the team. Since defining prodigy is fairly subjective, I relied on an expert in hype and used this list from Fox Sports, choosing to substitute Rick Ankiel for Dave Righetti. Besides Ankiel, the list includes pitchers such as Fernando Valenzuela, Mark Fidrych, and Hideo Nomo. To measure pitcher performance, I chose FIP, a statistic that incorporates events mostly within a pitcher's control-namely, and completely, home runs allowed, BB, IBB, HBP, strikeouts, and IP. I found FIP preferable to the traditional ERA because the latter statistic relies on many significant events outside of the pitcher's control-the defense behind the pitcher, for instance.

Being familiar with some of the major findings of sports statisticians, I was fully expecting the prodigy effect to be imaginary. I was surprised to find that during the "hype window," the two months after the prodigy starts his first game, his fellow starters saw their FIPs fall by an average of 3.4%. Maybe most surprisingly, of the 45 pitchers examined, 29 of them saw a decrease in their FIP during the hype window, for a rate of about 64%.

On Monday, the Nationals announced that struggling left handed starter John Lannan has been demoted to Double-A Harrisburg and purchased the contract of right handed reliever Joel Peralta to replace his roster spot. Lannan had started 14 games on the season, posting a 2-5 record and a 5.76ERA. He also posted a BB/K ratio of 35/24. Last year alone, Lannan had walked only 68 batters in 206.1 innings pitched. The most telling number of all, however, is that Lannan's WHIP has ballooned from 1.35 in 2009 to 1.85 this year.

Lannan has always pitch to contact, but this year, he's being hit especially hard which is concerning to those involved in the front office. Opponents have hit to the tune of .327/.462/.853. Furthermore, his groundball-to-fly ball ratio is a career worst 1.08.

Mike Rizzo has mentioned he isn't looking for Lannan to go down to Double-A and dominate the league. Instead, Rizzo is looking for Lannan to regain his sinker and draw more ground balls. Wins and losses are not his concerned, because, as Rizzo has put it, Lannan has proven he's a Major League pitcher, and he will be again. However, Rizzo did not place a timetable on Lannan's demotion.

ANALYSIS:

John Lannan, as we all know, is a guy who pitches to contact. He is a true sinker-ball pitcher that needs to produce ground balls to survive on this level. The previous two years, playing for terrible Nationals teams, he produced nine win seasons and kept his ERA around 3.90, which is a shade above average for Major League pitchers.

Now just one save away from 400, Talking Chop looks back on the amazing career of Billy Wagner.

Wagner looks to be throwing as hard as he was when he first came into the league back in 1996. I was skeptical of Atlanta's signing of him because I thought his career was over in 2008 and didn't think much of his comeback attempt with the Mets and Red Sox in 2009. Wagner has been a perfect fit with the Braves, his favorite childhood team. There has been much debate as to whether or not Wagner belongs in the Hall of Fame simply over the fact that he has not performed in the post-season. In his 13 career post-season games with the Astros, Mets, and Red Sox, Wagner has a 10.32 ERA by giving up 13 runs in 11.1 innings pitched. This is an interesting argument because Wagner ranks 5^th all time in saves and is second to John Franco's 424 in all time saves for left-handers. Unfortunately, I think the post-season numbers alone are enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame for quite some time, which is understandable because success in October is really what makes you remembered. For instance, do you really think players like David Eckstein and Scott Spiezio would be remembered if it weren't for their playoff heroics in 2002 with the Angels and 2006 with the Cardinals...probably not.

The Mets finally decided what they're going to do with twenty-year-old Jenrry Mejia by sending him down to Double AA Binghamton to work on becoming a starting pitcher. Bobby Parnell will takeover his roster spot.

It's about time they made up their mind about Mejia. This has been an ongoing issue all season, but through all the talks regarding what they should do with him, Mejia has performed well in his 30 games out of the bullpen sporting a 3.25 ERA and lit up the radar gun. In the end, this was the right thing to do, Mejia will be a good starter in the league and will hopefully find a way into the Mets rotation next season, pairing himself with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Jon Niese, not a bad starting four if you ask me. The question now becomes how will Bobby Parnell perform? Appearing in 68 games in 2009, starting eight of those, he had a 5.30 ERA and occasionally hit 100 MPH on his pitches. It will be interesting to see how he handles his role with the ball club as the Mets will find themselves in the thick of the playoff race.

The Marlins continue to address their struggling bullpen by calling up RHP Alejandro Sanabia and LHP James Houser.

Sanabia and Houser will be replacing Jay Buente and Jorge Sosa, who walked in to Rays in their game on Saturday night. Sanabia has put up outstanding numbers in his 14 starts in Double-AA, he went 5-1 while posting a 2.03 ERA and allowing only 16 walks in 84+ innings pitched. The issue surrounding Sanabia, the 21 year old from Chula Vista, California, is that he has always been a starter since his arrival to professional baseball in 2006. Houser also has been used primarily as a starter. After being drafted by the Rays in 2003, he started all but four of the 125 appearances he made in the Tampa Bay system. I'm not saying these two will not perform well in their new roles, but as we all know, starting and relieving have two totally different approaches, but at this point, Florida is too desperate to worry about that now.

As we will do each week of the season, today we will look at Accuscore's playoff forcaster to see how last weeks games influenced the division's playoff race. Thanks to impressive weeks by Atlanta and New York as well as a brutal stretch by the Nationals who went winless against the Tigers and White Sox, Washingtons saw their chances drop to 5.4%. The Nationals should have an easy upcoming week at home against Kansas City and up the road at Baltimore. Washington is 4-8 since the arrival of Strasburg and 1-8 in their last nine games, not exactly what the team, or anyone else in baseball had in mind.

PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 11

Stephen Oh on the NL East

The Atlanta Braves have a 2.5 game lead thanks to their 5-1 week and they picked up over 25 percentage points this week.  They had quality wins over Tampa Bay who has had a dominant road record this year.  The Mets nearly kept pace going 4-2 and their road sweep in Cleveland and even winning one vs the Yankees helped NY pick up 9 percent in the playoff race.  Atlanta and the Mets' improvement kept directly at the expense of the Marlins (-9 percent) and the Nationals (-11 percent).  The Phillies went 3-3 and managed to go the week relatively unchanged.