Mike Trout and his agent aren’t thrilled about the current state of his contract, according to this post from Yahoo’s Big League Stew. Trout is scheduled to make just over league minimum the year after he was the runner up for AL MVP, while guys like Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Vernon Wells are making unbelievable gobs of money for the same team. The Angels seem to be committed to paying players for past performance, not for future output, especially considering the size of those big deals.

Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have decided to treat their young, future stars right on the young side of their contracts. Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon were all signed to MLB contracts. Strasburg signed an historic $15.1 million deal, Harper signed a $9.9 million deal, and Rendon signed a $7.2 million deal. It’s a philosophy in which Nats GM Mike Rizzo clearly believes strongly: pay players for future potential, not necessarily for past performance.

While Trout barely makes make more than league minimum as one of the league’s brightest young stars, Strasburg, Harper, and even Rendon, who hasn’t appeared in a big league game in his career, all have nice guaranteed contracts with sizeable signing bonuses between $6 million and $7.5 million. Mike Trout’s signing bonus was a small fraction of that at $1.215 million.

Teams around the league haven’t looked kindly upon the Nationals for setting this precedent, either. Most GMs don’t like the idea of giving young guys huge amounts of guaranteed money before they’ve done anything at the MLB level. In fact, the Nationals huge deals to recent first round picks was part of the reason the new Collective Bargaining Agreement adopted a firm slotting system in the draft so teams can’t do what the Nats did by giving Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon huge signing bonuses without paying huge penalties.

Another factor worth noting in this situation is the agents who represent these players. Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon are all represented, or advised, by superagent Scott Boras, but Mike Trout is not. Boras is known for getting his players paid, and this may just be another example of his prowess.

Rizzo has a philosophy that treats a star player well when negotiating his first contract, which hopefully earns some good will during the next negotiation. The Angels’ philosophy pays veterans big money while young stars are pinched until free agency. Trout did agree to this contract, so it’s hard for me to say he’s getting swindled, but you better believe he’ll remember this when he’s eligible for free agency or is offered an extension. When you have true young stars, I’ll take Rizzo’s approach to contracts any day of the week.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection engine has predicted the Washington Nationals to repeat as National League East Division Champions. Here is their overall projection of the division:

Overall, Baseball Prospectus projects that the Nationals will have the third best record in the National League in 2013 and the sixth best record in baseball. That projection would make them the worst division winner in the game, but they would still finish with a better record than any Wild Card winner.  

It appears that BP’s computer seems to believe that Washington may have trouble scoring runs this season. They projected Washington to score 707 times in 2013, which would rank them 18th in the league. In 2012 they actually finished 10th. It looks like this is the biggest dig against them as it has them ranking pretty highly with 642 runs allowed. 

Part of this projected offensive decline is likely a belief that Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond will return to their norm, as well as the loss of Mike Morse’s power. It probably doesn’t accurately account for Bryce Harper’s likely improvement, or a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth, however. It’s important to remember that Projections usually trend toward the conservative side, so young teams like Washington tend to get projected relatively lower than they actually finish. 

To me what’s really interesting here is how closely they rank the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Personally I think the Phillies are due for a bit of a comeback this season, and I have no reason to believe the Braves will suddenly lose 12 games less than they did last year. 

Personally, if I were to project this season by just eyeballing it, it would likely have the Nationals winning the division with 90+ wins, with the Braves and Phillies battling for the Wild Card with 85+ wins. 

ESPN Insider has been running a series the past week in which they list the “MLB Future Power Rankings.” This list is designed to measure how well each team is set up to succeed over the next five years. The Washington Nationals finished fourth overall on their list:

The rankings were compiled by averaging scores given on a 0-30 scale from Buster Olney, Keith Law, and Jim Bowden in five categories; Majors, Minors, Finances, Management, and Mobility. Hardly the most scientific projection to say the least, but it’s interesting to see what these three “baseball experts” think of the franchise, one of whom worked for the Nats in the past five years. 

The Nationals ranked as the top team in the NL East, and trailed only the Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and St. Louis Cardinals on the list. Last year the Nats ranked 11th with an overall score of 58.9.

According to the panel, the Nationals are “the best team in baseball right now,” however the analysts question their minor league depth. ESPN does however acknowledge that the reduced depth is a result of several key trades to acquire top-of-the-line Major League Talent. 

The Nationals also only scored a 22 in “Management.” The club was likely dinged here because this will be Davey Johnson’s final season, meaning the Skipper situation in Washington is unknown and unstable over the five year period they were looking at. 

The one major flaw in this exercise by ESPN is that they fail to look at the age of the team’s major league talent. For example, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Drew Storen are all in the majors but also all very young. So while there isn’t a ton of depth behind them in the minors, that’s not necessarily relevant because they will not need to be replaced in some time. 

Each year Baseball America releases their top-10 prospects for each organization. As a baseball fanatic that has rooted for a loosing team much of his life, it’s one of the best parts of the season. It provides a glimmer of hope as you can see the opinions from some of the top baseball experts on the players that could potentially be the future of the franchise you know and love. 

A great feature they provide in these pieces is their four-year-into the future projections for starting lineups. For instance, this year Baseball America projected that in 2016 Anthony Rendon will be the Nats starting third baseman and Ryan Zimmerman will move over to first. It’s some really interesting stuff, and you can check it out here. 

Personally, however, I love looking at this tool retrospectively. Knowing the 2016 projected lineup is great, but what did Baseball America project the Nationals 2013 lineup would like when they made them four years ago? Here you go:

Catcher - Derek Norris (Wilson Ramos)
First Base - Chris Marrero (Adam LaRoche)
Second Base - Danny Espinosa (Correct!)
Shortstop - Ian Desmond (Correct!)
Third Base - Ryan Zimmerman (Correct!)
Left Field - Josh Willingham (Bryce Harper)
Center Field - Nyjer Morgan (Denard Span)
Right Field - Adam Dunn (Jayson Werth)

No. 1 Starter - Stephen Strasburg (Correct)
No. 2 Starter - Jordan Zimmermann (Correct)
No. 3 Starter - Ross Detwiler (Correct)
No. 4 Starter - John Lannan (Gio Gonzalez)
No. 5 Starter - Collin Balester (Dan Haren)

Closer - Drew Storen (Correct or Soriano)

Looking at that list, it’s actually remarkable how accurate they were. I think this is a true testament to effectiveness of the Nationals player development team, as the talent that they identified early on (some more than four years ago) has blossomed and are now the key parts of a team that is pushing for a World Series championship this year. That’s a serious accomplishment. 

If you look at where Baseball America got it wrong, all of the players who have replaced their projections have come from outside sources (or in the case of Bryce Harper, was drafted after this was published). Further more, if you look at the players who have been replaced on this list, pretty much all of the new players are significant upgrades.

It’s very exciting to see what Washington has done to incrementally improve in nearly every move they have made in the past half-decade. Truly amazing stuff. 

Continuing with the theme of this series and just to reiterate, it’s difficult to find any significant weakness with this Nationals 25-man roster. The infield and catchers are no exception. All five projected starters are among the best in the league at their positions defensively, and none of them are offensive slouches by any stretch of the imagination. On top of that, the bench players could be starters for a number of MLB teams.

Catcher: Kurt Suzuki – This is a position that could go either way for the Nats this season, and I imagine that Suzuki and Wilson Ramos will split a whole lot of time over the course of the season as Ramos gets his legs back under him following knee surgery. With the Nats last year, Suzuki hit .267 with five home runs in just 43 games, and he was a critical piece down the stretch offensively and as a mentor to the best pitching staff in the major leagues. Suzuki has earned the Opening Day start, and I think he just may get it.

First Base: Adam LaRoche – The Nationals first baseman had a career year in 2012, which led to him being re-signed to a two-year deal this past offseason. A .271 batting average, .853 OPS, and 128 OPS+, among many other factors led to LaRoche finishing sixth in NL MVP voting and earned him the first Silver Slugger of his career. His 6.1 UZR was a factor in earning his first career Gold Glove. LaRoche’s defense makes the already great defensive infield around him look even better, and his ability to hit for power in the middle of the lineup is invaluable. While I expect he’ll regress from a career-best season, I think he’ll be around career average numbers for 2013.

Second Base: Danny Espinosa – It turns out that Danny Espinosa had a torn rotator cuff through September and October last season, but he decided to try rehabbing the injury rather than have it surgically repaired. Only time will tell if that’s the right decision, but he insists he feels fine. Espinosa will also try to recover from a disappointing sophomore campaign, where he led the National League in strikeouts. He earned a 3.8 WAR, which was good for fourth best on the team, but he will have to work on a few things. For now, he’s certainly nothing to scoff at for a number eight hitter in an MLB linetup.

Shortstop: Ian Desmond – Desmond was another Nationals infielder who had a career-best year, and for the young shortstop, it’s the breakout year Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson saw on the horizon. He still did what he’s best known for: swing at the first pitch. A lot. But when he made contact on that first pitch, he hit .391 and sported a .979 OPS. When he was moved down to the number six spot in the lineup, it certainly helped, because his role changed to more of a power guy, and his 25 home runs show exactly that. I expect Desmond to pick up where he left off as his career starts to reach the peak of his success.

Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman – Coming off of the season that will forever be known as The Year Of The Cortisone, Zimmerman’s had his shoulder cleaned out, and he doesn’t expect any problems for 2013. After he started his cortisone regimen in late June, Zimm worked his way up toward career average numbers offensively, but his shoulder never was quite right for throwing. He’s working that out in spring training, which should help him have a better year at the hot corner. He is among the top two or three defensive third basemen in baseball when fully healthy, and I hope the Nats are able to see that return this season.

Bench: Wilson Ramos (C), Steve Lombardozzi (2B, 3B, LF), Chad Tracy (1B, 3B) – Wilson Ramos is coming off of surgery to fix a torn ACL, which is among the worst injuries a catcher can go through. Without Suzuki, Ramos would still likely be the Opening Day starter. However, Ramos isn’t likely to start a spring game until sometime in the middle of March, so I think he’ll be eased into the regular season.

Steve Lombardozzi is a little guy and a former 19^th round pick. He has no business being as good as he is at baseball, but here he stands. He’s learned to be versatile, playing both infield and outfield positions, and he rarely strikes out. He provides above-average defense, and he can make contact off the bench. I don’t expect to see Lombardozzi on the team for many more seasons, because he’s just too good to be riding the bench, but he’ll be crucial to the team in 2013.

Chad Tracy is the leader of the “Goon Squad,” the great name for the Nats bench. In just 93 at bats in 2012, he managed to knock in 14 runs. He can play the corners of the infield in a pinch, but his personality and ability to provide pop off the bench are his real value.

Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus penned an article yesterday outlining 10 players that their proprietary projection system, PECOTA, predicted would decline in 2013. Two Washington Nationals, Gio Gonzalez and Adam LaRoche, were included in the list. 

Here’s what they had to say about each: 

LaRoche - 

“LaRoche's lifetime stats paint a perfect picture of a league-average first baseman. He's been better than that in some seasons, including his stellar 2012, but career years at age 32 are rarely repeated. LaRoche's clubhouse leadership might make him more valuable to the Nationals, but not to your fantasy team.”

Gonzalez - 

“Gonzalez continued to make strides in 2012, but as much as his breakout was supported by positive indicators like a fifth straight season with a lower walk rate than the one before, it was also aided by balls in play bouncing his way. Gio's HR/FB rate was the lowest of any qualified pitcher's, and his BABIP was 12th-lowest. There's no reason why he can't continue to pitch at a high level, but if PECOTA's projection proves accurate, he won't be contending for another Cy Young Award this season.”

While it’s disappointing to see two of the Nats key cogs on this list, it’s not entirely surprising. LaRoche had a career year in 2013 at the age of 32, while finishing in the top 25 in MVP voting, earning a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award all for the first time in his career. LaRoche has always been labeled with the tag of “Good not Great” and it’s not surprising that a computer would project his return to the norm. 

Gonzalez also had a career year last year but his case is obviously a little different. Gio is just 26, so some, including myself, would argue that his stellar 21 win, 2.89 ERA performance of 2012 was a result of him entering his prime years of production. I doubt that  BP would disagree with that assessment either, but the computer looks at indicating factors such as stats that are attributed to “luck” and they believe that Gio simply got lucky last year. 

Only time will tell with either of these players, but it is important to note that  of the other eight players on the list, five were All-Stars and one (Mike Trout) was an MVP candidate. To me this asserts that this list was much more of a reasonable and conservative algorithm making predictions that numbers would return to earth rather than a bid of no-confidence. 

For LaRoche, PECOTA predicts: 251/.320/.446 (1.5 WARP)

For Gonzalez, PECOTA predicts: 3.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9 (2.4WARP)

What do you expect from these two?

Those of you who have worn the Curly W since the beginning will remember the name Chad Cordero very fondly. In the roller coaster season that was 2005, the then 23-year-old phenom both charmed and electrified Washington during the club’s surprising 81-81 inaugural year in the Nation’s Capital. 

Both MLB.com and USA Today ran features on former Washington Nationals closer yesterday, as the 31-year-old embarks on a physically and emotionally taxing comeback to Major League Baseball. Now a special invite with the Los Angeles Angels, the team he rooted for as a kid growing up in California, Cordero pitched against live MLB pitching yesterday for the first time since a failed comeback attempt in 2010 with the Seattle Mariners. 

Cordero pitched one inning Monday for the Angels big league squad, giving up a home run against his first batter, before retiring the next three hitters in order. Most will likely chalk up the lead-off home run to jitters, but the most important note from the day was that he was consistently hitting 89-91 MPH on the radar gun with his fastball. Those of you who remember Cordero’s sudden decline in Washington know that his career fell apart after a shoulder injury sapped him of his velocity, and the effectiveness of his changeup evaporated. 

As yesterday’s features noted, those shoulder injuries were only the start of Cordero’s struggles. Out of the game by the age of 28, the former All-Star and his wife lost their 11-week-old child, Teyha, to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. The emotional toll this took on the right-hander made a comeback at the time near impossible.

Cordero, however, has now lost nearly 40 pounds, according to accounts, and it appears that his fastball and love for the game has returned. It’s unknown where he will end up out of camp, but it is almost certain he will not follow the big league club to Los Angeles. At the age of 31, Cordero faces some major uphill challenges as he tries to make his way back to the show. Not only will he have to re-prove that he can be an effective member of a bullpen that will be making a push for the playoffs, but also that the Angels should use a roster spot on a guy whose long-term role with the franchise is unclear. 

Personally, I will always remember going to games at RFK Stadium in 2005 with my friends and straightening out the bills of our caps when “The Chief” got in the game to close it out. Cordero pitched with such great passion, and wore every emotion on his sleeve. Regardless of is future, he will always have a place in the Nats record books, as I find it hard to believe that any Washington closer will ever top the 47 save, 1.82 ERA year that Chad posted for the Nats in year one.

Spring training has started, Gio Gonzalez has been freed from implication in his PED investigation, according to the ESPN Outside The Lines report, and there are some good young players worth mentioning so far in spring training. What better reasons do we need to record another episode of the podcast?