To preview the coming series against the Cincinnati Reds, The Nats Blog sat down with the top Reds blog on the net, Red Reporter, to get their views on the club, the series, and the future.

The Nats Blog: What were you expectations coming into 2009? It seems like the Reds put together a solid foundation for a team, but injuries and under performances damned the team.

Red Reporter: If I'm being honest, my peak expectation was for a .500 season.  I knew before the season started that the Reds didn't have enough offense to be serious contenders, though I didn't expect their offense to be as bad as it has been.  I felt like the pitching and defense would be improved enough to make up for some of the loss on offense, but right out of the gate it was a season where a lot of things had to go perfect for the Reds to have a good year.  Obviously the injuries have made it hard for those perfect scenarios to happen, but to the truth of the matter is that the Reds did not have enough talent coming into this season to expect to be competitive. 

TNB: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are exciting young players, what do you think about their respective futures and what types of players they will become?

Red Reporter: I think both of them have All Star potential.  Votto was brought along a lot more deliberately than Bruce, and he'll be 26 next month, but I think he's already showing that potential in the big leagues.  He's struggled over the last week, but there's not much to not like about what he's done in his 2 years as a major leaguer.  Bruce is still just 22 and he has some work to do to improve.  He's got power and quick wrists, but he beats himself a lot at the plate by swinging at pitches that he can't handle and consistently trying to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate.  The big concern for him right now is how he recovers from the broken wrist that he suffered in July.  Austin Kearns was never the same hitter after he broke his wrist, and there is quietly some fear that Bruce might suffer similar long-term effects.

TNB: Jim Bowden came to us after a stint with the Cincinatti Reds, and by the end of his tenure had brought over nearly the entire former team. Just look at the players on the 2003 Reds that later ended up in the Nationals Organization; D’angelo Jimenez, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Boone, Adam Dunn, Jose Guillen, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Barry Larkin and Bob Boone. In your experience, how was life with the Bowden, and life after the Bowden?

Red Reporter: Jim Bowden was a jerk to pretty much every person that crossed his path, but at least when he was with the Reds he managed to field a competitive team on a regular basis.  He had way too much of an infatuation with toolsy outfielders that rarely amounted into anything, but he was creative with how to fix the spots that the team needed and he was willing to take risks.  One thing is for sure, he gave us fans something to talk about.

Life since Bowden left has been pathetic, but not because Bowden is gone.  When he left, the farm system was in shambles (partly because of Marge Schott as well), so they've been rebuilding for the last 5 years with only some small progress made on the organization as a whole.  The 4 GMs we've had since Bowden (there's an indicator of a problem if I've ever seen one), have done everything they can to dismantle and clean up his mess.  As far as I can tell, the only players left in the organization from Bowden's time are Joey Votto, who was drafted by Bowden in 2002, Ryan Hanigan, who was signed in 2002, and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted in 2003 just before Bowden was fired.  Unfortunately, undoing what Bowden did wasn't the only solution for success.  This season will mark the 9th straight losing season for the Reds, and frankly optimism for 2010 is waining.

TNB: Do Reds fans regret the Josh Hamilton trade? Or in general are they happy with Volquez?

Red Reporter: It depends on who you ask.  I would say the fanbase is fairly evenly split on the deal.  Hamilton captured the imagination of a lot of fans when he was with the Reds, and many of those fans were very upset when he was dealt.  Volquez won over a bunch of them with his All Star first half last year, but some fans also wonder what might have been if Hamilton had stayed with the Reds.  At this point, I don't think either side is particularly excited about what has happened to both players.  Then again, the best performance so far this year from a player in the deal might be by reliever Daniel Ray Herrera who has posted a 2.53 ERA in 50 outings predominately as a LOOGY for the Reds.  Not bad for a 5'6" junkballer who was a throw-in on the deal.

TNB: What pieces do the Reds have to add to be in a position to compete next year?

Red Reporter: If they want to be competitive next year, the need serious upgrades at SS and CF, plus they probably need a good right-handed power bat.  Scott Rolen could provide that bat for them if he stays healthy, but it wouldn't hurt if they could add an insurance bat for LF.  Also, they'll need to continue to the development of some of their youngsters like Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto.

TNB: What do the Reds have to do to be successful in the coming series?

Red Reporter: Get an early lead.  The Reds are just 5-34 when trailing after the first inning and they have only 19 come from behind wins this season. If the lead is not possible, then probably the most important thing is to keep the Nats of the board as much as possible.  The offense has been "hot" of late, batting .235/.309/.324 and scoring 4.6 R/G over their last 5 games.  This isn't a team that is very adept as scoring runs when they need to.

The Nationals second draft pick (11^th overall) of 2009, Drew Storen, got promoted from the Potomac Nationals to Harrisburg Senators Tuesday night.

Storen recorded a perfect shutout inning for the Senators last night, retiring the side and earning the save.

Storen, as expected, has risen through the ranks of the Nationals minor league system quickly. He has used excellent control and good movement on his pitches to keep bats off balls, and runners off bases.

The most impressive number for Storen has been his 37/2 strikeout to walk ratio.
 

Kendall Rogers of Yahoo! Sports said today in his article, “Several Unsigned players still on table,” that nine first-round picks, including Stephen Strasburg have yet to sign:

“San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg was the first pick of the MLB draft and has yet to sign. However, all indications point to the stud right-hander either signing a pro contract or pulling an Aaron Crow and heading to the Independent League to prepare for another draft next summer….”

“Prediction: Strasburg reportedly is asking for one of the largest signing bonuses in professional history, but if he signs, there’s a good chance he’ll agree to much less than his original demands….For now, I’ll say Strasburg signs by the deadline.”

While Rogers doesn’t really say what basis he has for his prediction, it is reasonable. I would assume that not even Boras expected to get 50 million dollars for Strasburg, just as he probably didn’t expect Manny to get the contract he was demanding this summer either. If you set the bar really high however, then the club will be forced to meet you somewhere in the middle. That middle number may be what Boras was actually expecting when demanding the outrageous first number.

I really expect the Nationals to sign Strasburg. 

The Nationals came back down to earth Tuesday night as they lost their first game in their last nine contests, falling to the Braves 8-1.

John Lannan has seen better outings. The lefty only survived 4.2 innings while giving up six runs on six hits. The usually in control Lannan allowed four walks to only one strikeout.

The Nats starter earned his 9^th loss of the season.

During the clubs eight game win streak there was a clear recommitment to defense. In fact as Chico Harlan pointed out recently, the Nationals turnaround in the  standings can be traced to their turn around in defensive consistency.

The errors, however, returned tonight. Both Cristian Guzman and Josh Willingham made errors with their gloves and the Nats as a result allowed two unearned runs.

Those two unearned runs however, do not account for all eight of the Braves scores. The Atlanta club recorded 10 hits, with all eight position players contributing to that total.

Ryan Church contributed two hits and two runs for the Braves while reaching base four times. Chipper Jones also added two hits and two runs, as well as chipping in with his 15^th home run of the year. 

The Washington Nationals (40-72) will head down south for a two game series against the Atlanta Braves (58-52) this week.

Both the Nationals and the Braves are surging but towards very different destinies. The Nationals, who have won eight games in a row, and 12 of their last 16, have turned around what had potential to be one of the worst seasons in MLB history into one of the leagues hottest Augusts. The Braves on the other hand, who have won 15 of their last 23, are trying to claw their way into a wide open race for the National League East division lead.

The Braves are coming off a road trip where they captured five wins, suffered two losses, and took three of four from top team in the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers (68-45). With this streak, they are only 4.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies  (61-48) 

During their road trip, the hottest hitter for the Braves was former Washington National Ryan Church. Church batted .389 in that stretch, with five runs, three extra-base hits and five runs batted in.

Church has had a tumultuous journey since being traded from the Nationals after the 2007 season. Church saw two half seasons with the Mets that were marred by bizarre injury after bizarre injury, until he was finally traded to the Braves this season.

Atlanta has risen back to contention in the NL East this summer on the backs of the same group of people who carried them their year after year in the 1990’s, their pitching staff.

The club currently ranks third in the National League in Pitcher VORP, third in the majors in team ERA, and seventh in strikeouts. In the last month however, the club ranks first in the majors in ERA.

Once again the clubs pitching staff is anchored by its starting rotation, which features three aces.

• Javier Vazquez-10-7, 2.90 ERA, 171/32 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP
  
• Jair Jurrjens- 9-8, 3.01 ERA, 103/53 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP
  
• Tommy Hanson- 6-2, 3.22 ERA, 46/29 K/BB, 1.33 WHIP
  

Vazquez is an established veteran who started his career with Montreal. Jurrjens is 23-year-old up and comer who already has a full year of experience under his belt. Tommy Hanson is a rookie prospect who is making a strong case for rookie of the year.

The Braves rotation is filled out by off-season signing Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.15) and foreign import Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.12). That gives them 5 starters with an ERA below 4.15.

The Nationals will try to earn their ninth win in a row tonight, as the clubs ace, John Lannan, will face up against Tommy Hanson. Lannan admitted to not having his best stuff in his last start, although he earned his 15^th quality start of the season. Lannan pitched six innings and gave up two runs against the Marlins.

Hanson on the other hand has come on strong in August with a six inning performance against the Padres where he allowed only two runs on five hits.

A look at the success of the Nationals 2009 Draft, picks 2-34 (DC PRO)

Chico Harlan points to the day it turned around for the Nationals, July 24^th (WaPo)

Turns out Cristian Guzman cleared waivers, and the Nats are happy about that (ANATT)

Some aren’t very optimistic about Jordan Zimmermann’s Tommy John (Triple Play)

Nationals sign five Dominican ball players all  allegedly under the age of 20 (ANATT)

Consider the Nationals bubble bursted.

Interim General Manager Mike Rizzo delivered the daunting news today that Jordan Zimmermann will need to have Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. As a result of the surgery, the Nationals top pitching prospect, and hope for the future, will be forced to miss the next 18 months.

While Zimmermann went on the disabled list in mid July, he was first diagnosed with elbow tightness. After getting two opinions from arm specialists, including the noted Dr. James Andrews, the Nationals made the decision today to move towards ligament replacement (Tommy John Surgery).

This is a disappointment for everyone.  Up until the recent winning streak the only bright spots of the Nationals season were Ryan Zimmerman’s 30 game hit streak, and the emergence of Jordan Zimmermann as a future pitching star. Now that certainty is in limbo, as is Zimmermann’s career.

Tommy John has a reputation for being an incredibly successful operation that according to Rizzo has a “85 to 90 percent success rate with pitchers recovering to their pre injury status after (the) surgery.”
 

So while the good news may be that there is a high chance Zimmermann’s arm may be as lively in two years, the bad news is that he will have to miss TWO years. That takes him from being a 23-year-old top prospect who was just on the verge of figuring out the Major League game  to becoming a 25-year-old out of practice starter trying to relearn how to pitch with a  new arm.

I don’t envy Jordan Zimmermann.

Zimmermann however is no stranger to adversity. The young starter suffered a terrible senior season at Wisconsin Steven’s-Point as he missed most of his spring after getting hit by a line drive during batting practice, and then later that year missed more time after he had his wisdom teeth pulled.

It will be a hard road back for Zimmermann but by no means an impossible one. There have been many success stories involving Tommy John, not only by veterans trying to extend their careers, but also by young pitchers just starting theirs.

Here are some players who received the same surgery at similar points in their careers:

• Erik Bedard, age 24- Has had stretches of greatness interrupted by injuries (but not to his elbow).  Struck out 221 in 182 innings for the Orioles in 2007.
  
• AJ Burnett, age 25- Has a career 3.80 ERA and has averaged 8.3 K/9. Had 231 K’s last year.
  
• Josh Johnson, age 23- 11-2 this season with a 2.92 ERA and 129 K’s to 37 BB’s.
  
• Matt Morris, age 25- Came back from Tommy John in 2001, won 22 games with a 3.16 ERA.
  
• Mariano Rivera, age 22- Became the greatest closer of all time with a dominant cutting fastball. 514 career saves and a 2.27 career ERA.  
  

Of course for every success story there is a disaster one. Take the former National Shawn Hill or Minnisota Twin Francisco Lirano.
  

Liriano dazzled Major League baseball in 2006 as he burst on to the scene as a rookie battling teammate Johan Santana for ace status. Liriano went 12-3 in 16 starts, posting a 2.16 ERA. The lefty recorded 144 K’s in 121 innings and walked only 32. However after Tommy John he has seemed to have lost himself. The now 26 year old is 4-11 with a 5.63 ERA and only 106 K’s in 118 IP.

Zimmermann will now have to wait it out, and pay his dues to get back to the Nationals rotation. Hopefully the next time he comes around, we’ll be competing for a playoff spot. 

Notes: Check out this great blog post from Royals left hander Brian Anderson, discussing his Tommy John experience. 

J.D. Martin earned his first win Sunday as the Nationals topped the Diamondbacks 9-2.

The young starter’s only mistake on the night was a leadoff homer given up to Trent Oeltjen in the first. Following that Martin settled down to pitch five strong innings allowing only five hits and that one earned run. He also earned his celebratory pie in the face.

Martin has had a long journey to earning his first win which saw him bounce around the minors since being drafted in the supplemental round by Cleveland in 2001. After eight years in obscurity the former prospect has finally clinched his first “W,” at the age of 26.

For Martin once his high school arm developed, he needed to have it surgically reconstructed. In 2005 Martin underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss a year.

By the time he had gotten back the Indians had given up on him. At the age of 25 he combined between double and triple A by going 12-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 79 strikeouts to 21 walks, yet he couldn’t get a shot in the big leagues with the Tribe.

Back from Injury Martin was a different kind of pitcher. He had become a 26-year-old Jamie Moyer, living on the black at 88 MPH. His best assets are his control and his change-up. These skill sets tend to worry Major League General Managers because so few are successful pitching that way, especially young guys. The only way to find out if finesse pitchers like that have what it takes at the Big League level is to give them the opportunity.

Well J.D Martin, here it is.