It's time to trade Adam Dunn, not Josh Willingham

Written by William Yoder

Tuesday, 26 January 2010 09:19

adam-dunn There have been numerous reports recently that the Nationals may be looking to move Josh Willingham within the next several weeks. While Willingham likely can bring in a player of solid value, he is under the Nationals control for the next two seasons and is relatively cheap for his level of output.

However, Adam Dunn, 30, is in the final year of his contract, and is likely at the peak of his career. While Dunn has been an incredibly productive player for the Nationals, he likely wont be able to sustain his success much further into the future, and it will cost them a pretty penny to extend his contract (if they even can). Dunn can help the Nationals franchise the most by being traded for quality parts to be used for building the team of tomorrow.

Adam Dunn is a conundrum in many ways, while his bat may be his most valuable asset, going into the future the biggest variable in his overall value may be his horrific lack of defense. Fangraphs rated his offensive value as 35.5 Runs Above Average last season, where his defensive value was 36.3 Runs BELOW Average. This resulted in the slugger only being worth 1.2 Wins last season. However, if you remove his defensive liabilities he is clearly more valuable. This is why the Nationals need to trade him to the American League.

A look around the American League at the starting DH's shows its pretty slim pickings and that if he were traded he would almost instantly be the best DH in baseball.

Name / OPS

Baltimore: Luke Scott .828
Toronto: Randy Ruiz .682
Tampa Bay: Pat Burrell .682
Boston: David Ortiz .794
New York: Nick Johnson .831

Minnesota: Jason Kubel .907
Detroit: Jeff Larish .730
Chicago: Andruw Jones .782
Kansas City: Alex Gordon .703
Cleveland: Travis Hafner .826

LA Angels: Hideki Matsui .876
Texas: Vladimir Guerrero .794
Seattle: Ken Griffey Jr./Milton Bradley .735/.775
Oakland: Jack Cust .773

Adam Dunn .928

What do you think? Should the Nationals trade him before the season or at all?

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Comments (6) Add Comment

My guess is that Dunn is available for the right price
written by Positively half St., January 26, 2010

I would hate to see him go, but I have to believe that the return would be most pleasing.

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written by Bill@TDS, January 26, 2010

I'd have thought this was a no-brainer before getting a look at that list of current DHes. It's hard to see a good fit. Maybe the Rays (who have some great prospects, but would probably make the Nats pick up a chunk of the contract)? Dunn and Burrell would be a pretty awesome platoon combo...and a huge limitation on the roster, but it might be worth it.
The problem is that Jim Thome can still do everything Dunn can do almost as well (that is, walk, crush righties, strike out a bunch, and not run or play defense), and won't require a team to give up anything except a small amount of money that likely keeps getting smaller as the days go by. As long as Thome's still out there, I don't see any AL teams having any motivation to go after Dunn.

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written by srstetler, January 26, 2010

I am convinced that the Nationals should trade Dunn before the season. Adam Dunn has baseball sensibility, consistent power numbers in any line up and he's only 31. It appears a DH role is in his future. Some American League teams might benefit from his bat, like Minnesota, Tampa Bay, or Baltimore.

Jim Thome
written by YardYoder, January 26, 2010

I hadn't thought about Thome, honestly. You do bring up a good point with him, however I think that at this point in their career's Dunn can bring a good amount more than Thome to the plate (no pun intended).

While their WAR's were relatively similar (Dunn 1.2, Thome 1.3) if you look at FanGraphs, much of Dunn's War is brought down due to his -36.3 Fielding Value. Without that, his WAR would have been a good deal higher. Comparing their Hitting Value:
Thome = 8.9
Dunn = 35.5

You are right though that Thome is a much cheaper option and a lot of teams will certainly consider him over Dunn when looking to save.

Teams I could see Dunn going to however:

Detroit
Yankees (Johnson WILL get hurt)
Tampa
Oakland

However shortly after I wrote this article I read this, which was interesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs...e-dh-dying

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written by YardYoder, January 26, 2010

And to put that argument to bed, Thome signs a one-year deal with the Twins

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written by SMS Class of '00, January 28, 2010

I'm not sure trading Dunn before the season is the best move. The way I see it, his value can only increase. Right now, everybody knows Adam Dunn can't field. But that is based on his play in the outfield. If he comes into Spring Training with improved defense at 1B, it should increase his trade value, because NL teams could be more interested knowing he is not limited to a DH-only role. It could also give the Nats even more of a reason to sign him long-term, as if Zimmerman's break out season in 2009 isn't reason enough. We will see what happens to Zim's numbers if Dunn gets traded. If Dunn sucks at 1B as much as he did in the outfield, then there is nothing lost, he is what we thought he was, and he can still be traded to the AL in July as a DH.

What will the Nats do at 1B if Dunn is traded? In-house options include Mike Morse, Cal Eldred, and maybe the newly acquired Chris Duncan (who also would have to learn 1B footwork on the fly). Those names don't really inspire a ton of confidence. Free agent guys are limited to Carlos Delgado and other older players who are less productive than Dunn, and would most likely only be brought in on a one-year deal.

Willingham is much easier to replace with in-house candidates such as Justin Maxwell, Roger Bernadina, and the aforementioned Chris Duncan. Although it isn't an option after the Randy Winn signing, I was hoping the Nats could trade him to the Yankees for Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain (I prefer Hughes) although that may have been over-valuing Willingham.

Personally, I hope they find a way to keep Dunn around, but if a long-term deal (say 3 years for ~$40M?) can't be worked out, then they definitely should trade him and get what they can. From front-office statements, it seems like the Nats want to keep Dunn around, but I'm less sure about his interest to remain in DC - he didn't seem all that eager to sign here before the 2009 season.

Can't wait for April! Let's go Nats!

By the way, nice looking blog, Yoder. Way to represent the A-town public school system. Mr. Cash and Mr. Clements would be proud.