Ever since the Nationals brought up Ryan Zimmerman in 2005, the club has labeled the 25-year-old hot corner as the face of the franchise. While everybody dawning a Curly W may have dreamt of seeing him immediately rise to super-star status, Zimmerman trudged through three years of good but not great play that saw him suffer a few injuries and earned him his first big league contract.
In 2009, however, Zimmerman exploded by hitting .292/.364/.525 with 33 homers, 110 RBI, a 137 wRC+ and, oh yeah, a 30-game hit-steak. He won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and his cities heart. With things firing on all-cylinders for Zimmerman, the only question left to ask is, will it last? Will he continue to trend upward or is he setting himself up for a decline? First lets look at what made Zimmerman better in 2009 than in the rest of his career.
2009 saw Zimmerman walk at the highest rate of his career (10.4%), get on base at the best rate (.364), and hit for the most power (.525 Slg.). Some may suggest that this is the result of hitting in front of a true slugger for the first time, Adam Dunn. Conventional thought says that with the power-house Dunn behind him Zimmerman will see better pitches, therefore being able to chose which ones to hack at and which one to take. The stats show however that Zimmerman was pitched to almost identically in both 2009 when he hit in front of Dunn, and 2008 when he hit in front of, well nobody.
Zimmerman saw 59.1% fastballs in 2009, compared to 59.9% in 2008. 19.1% fastballs compared to 19.8% in 2008, 10% change up's compared to 11.4 % ect. Ec.t He saw 49.4 % of pitches in the strike zone compared to 51.5 in 2008, so it doesn't seem like the pitches he saw were any better.
Instead it seems Zimmerman improved by just swinging less often. In 2009 he only swung at 39.7% of pitches he saw, where he swung at 44.1% in 2008 and 42.5% in his career. While Zimmerman swung at less pitches inside the strikezone than throughout his career, he also chased far fewer pitches in 2009 than before; 21.3% in 2009 compared to 25.2% in 2010.
He also excelled at driving the ball when he did made contact. His back-to-back 40 double seasons in 2006 and 2007 finally translated into home run power as he topped the 30 home run plateau for the first time in his career. He also started to mash fastballs like never before. According to FanGraphs, Zimmerman registered an adjusted fastball rating of 21.0 in 2009, trumping his 0.1 fastball rating of 2009, and a career fastball rating of 3.1.
Defensively Zimmerman churned out his second stellar defensive season at third base. Long branded a future defensive gem in the mold of a Brooks Robinson, Zimmerman posted a career high UZR of 18.1 in 2009, good enough to lead National League infielders and earn his first gold glove. Those who watched the Nationals in 2009 saw that there was great room for improvement in his defensive game as well. Zimmerman struggled early on making several throwing errors and some other silly mistakes; if those get ironed out he could easily improve that already stellar UZR.
There are signs for concern though. While Zimmerman's BABIP, a good indicator of over or under performance, stayed steady in 2009 he hit a career low number of ground balls, and a career high number of fly balls. Traditionally this will indicate a drop, not a rise in production, so Nats fans should be weary if those numbers don't get back to his career averages. Zimmerman's strikeout rate also rose to 19.5% which is slightly higher than his 18.9 career percent and his overall contact percentage went down two points in 2009.
Zimmerman also struggled with hitting curve-balls in 2009. A pitch that in the past he used to post positive ratings in, he saw his Curve Ball Rating drop from 3.7 in 2007, to 1.3 in 2008, to -4.7 in 2009. Luckily for Zimm he only saw curveballs 6.9% of the time in 2009, but that number could steadily raise in 2010 after his poor performance.
Ultimately I think the numbers show that there is no reason to believe that 2009 was a fluke, but instead it was the year that a very talented 24-year-old came into his own. Zimmerman became a star in his fifth year in the league, and while he may not improve to a much higher degree with the bat in 2010, his defense may continue to blossom as the years go by.
Lets look at what the experts say, the 2010 forecasts/projections: CHONE: .296/.365/.511, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 135 wRC+ Bill James: .288/.358/.511, 28 HR, 98 RBI, 131 wRC+ Marcel: .284/.351/.486, 23 HR, 79 RBI, 121 wRC+ Baseball Prospectus: .276/.353/.475/ 27 HR, 95 RBI, 40.9 VORP
In his second spring outing Stephen Strasburg pitched three innings of shutout baseball, striking out two while allowing two hits and walking one batter against the Cardinals this afternoon. Though the Cardinals played without stars Albert Pujols and Matt Holiday, Strasburg's performance was still impressive, throwing 28 of his 49 pitches for strikes and starting seven of the eleven batters he faced with first-pitch strikes. Unfortunately, the Nationals were unable to parlay Strasburg's strong start into a win. Tyler Clippard took the loss, surrendering five runs in one and one-third innings, and the Nationals fell to 0-10 on the spring. (For some video of Strasburg's outing, click here).
The Nationals made several more cuts friday, re-assigning catcher Devin Ivany and first baseman Josh Whitesell to minor-league camp this morning. Mark Zuckerman wrote:
"Neither move comes as a shock. Ivany, 27, has never played above Class AA but has been a mainstay in camp the last several years as an extra catcher. Whitesell, also 27, rejoined the organization this winter after being let go by the Diamondbacks and is probably slated to play first base at Class AAA Syracuse this season."
I have to disagree with Zuckerman here. While Ivey has never played above AA, Whitesell is a what I like to call a quadruple-A player. In 190 AAA games he has batted .274/.390.471 with 40 homers and 130 RBI. Those are numbers that more than deserve a shot a the big leagues. Whitesell has been a victim of several unfortunate circumstances. Injuries made his college career long, and right when he was ready to make an impact in Washington the first time around he got waived to Arizona. There he got stuck behind an aging Tony Clark. A look at his 2008 in AAA shows he more than deserved a full-time shot in Arizona last year.
"Do you honestly think that the Nationals have a shot at the playoffs in 2010? -- Steve S., Rockville Md.
I can't answer this question right now because Rizzo is not finished trying to build the Nationals for 2010. I know they're trying to trade for a top-of-the-rotation starter. We'll see what happens before Opening Day."
This caught me a little off-gaurd as I assumed with the additions of Strasburg, Wang and Marquis, and the competition of Mock, Stammen, and Martin, the Nationals were all set rotation wise. With that this could either mean two things from General Manager Mike Rizzo. Either he is terrified that the club has already allowed 82 runs this spring training, or he wants to shock the world by making a playoff push in 2010.
The Washington Nationals made their first round of cuts today, giving veteran pitchers Shawn Estes and Eddie Guardado their outright releases while demoting six players to minor league camp. The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore Reported:
"The Nationals reduced their roster to 53 players, and by letting go six pitchers they will be able to more closely examine the pitchers contending for the final spots in the bullpen and the starting rotation.
"It's that time where you got to start getting the numbers down to a more manageable number, especially the pitching," Manager Jim Riggleman said."
Guardado's release will probably mean the end to a 17-year career where he posted a 4.32 ERA and saved 187 games. The lefty, nicknamed 'Everyday Eddie,' saved 40 games in back to back seasons 2002-2003. Estes has pitched 14 seasons in the Major Leagues posting a 101-93 record with a 4.71 ERA. Estes best year came in 1997 when the lefty went 19-5 with a 3.18 ERA.
Among the minor leaguers sent down were pitchers Victor Garate, Logan Kensing, Joel Peralta and Ryan Speir, and position players Derek Norris and Jerry Owens.
Analysis:
While the Shawn Estes release is not a surprise, the Guardado release caught me off gaurd. I was under the impression that they had brought in Everyday Eddie to be a bullpen mentor to the young Nationals relief pitchers. Guardado had earned a strong reputation over the last several years as being a great mentor to young closers like Ryan Franklin and J.J. Putz. Guardado had struggled however, allowing four earned runs on seven hits in two outings this spring. Regardless, one would have thought he would have at least been sent to Syracuse to be a mentor for Drew Storen.
Derek Norris was the most notable demotion among the minor leaguers. Norris is arguably the Nationals top hitting prospect and the club wants him to focus on his defensive strength behind the plate. His demotion represents a big change from the ways of Jim Bowden, who was known for bringing up his prospects for looks in spring training regardless of their readiness. Bowden of course did this to make himself look better.
Norris will look to shoot through the minors this year and put himself in position to crack the majors in camp next season.
Throughout the course of a season, there is always a handful of players like Mike Morse that become available on waivers (Morse in fact passed through waivers himself in April 2009). The Nationals had traded outfielder Ryan Langerhans, another replacement type outfielder, to the Mariners last season for Morse and during September of last season he batted .262/.311/.524 in 45 PA for the Nationals. That line gained Morse the attention of many D.C. fans and his line this spring has augmented that attention. The question is, though, what is Morse's value to the Nationals?
So far this spring training Morse is 6 for 21 with a double and two home runs. He has been one of the few Nationals hitters to come out of the gates hot, but spring training numbers are less than reliable. During spring training 2008 for the Mariners, Morse put on a monster showing, but failed to carry it into the regular season before getting injured on a fielding play (more on this later). While his ST numbers are most likely a fluke right now, they do back up comments made by coaches that Morse stays in baseball shape nearly the whole year, always a plus, and provides one example of a reason why a player may excel in spring training. Expect his numbers to drop as spring progresses into summer.
At the plate, Morse is a pretty good hitter with average power. He does not take walks very often and his OBP (.355) for his major league career seems to be a bit too high compared to his minor league OBP (.329), which consists of nearly nine times as many plate appearances. He does not have much speed on the base paths (4 stolen bases in his career) and, if he was regular, would be a type of guy that batted towards the bottom of the lineup.
Stephen Strasburg made his long awaited debut for the Washington Nationals this afternoon in Viera. The young right-handed starter hurled two innings, allowed two softly-hit singles, and struck out two batters with a total of 27 pitches on the day. He flashed a high 90's fastball and a devastating curve, and a lot of other things happened which you can read about in many other blogs and reports. So instead of writing your typical 'Stephen Strasburg Debut' post, I'm going to break down what today meant for me, a Nats fan.
Being a Nationals fan has always been about believing despite your own reasonible sensabilities. D.C. is a city deeply intrenched in logic, realism, and yes, synicism, and being a Natinoals fan means that you are going to sniff out the crap that a certain former GM fed you, and that you're going to have to try and be ok with it. Because despite our minds telling us that we should not put up with the garbage that has been put on the field in front of us, our hearts know all too well what it is like to have no baseball at all. Therefor, our choice is simple, bad baseball over no baseball.
To continue our tour across the bloggosphere, we stopped to chat with Eric from one of the best Mets blogs on the internet, Amazin' Avenue. The Amazin' Avenue has been quite busy this offseason preparing their own Amazin' Avenue Annual, check it out.
The Nats Blog: The Mets have gone from very confident in 2006, to unlucky in 2007 and 2008, to crises mode in 2009 and 2010. What happened? With a young core of talent, can the club turn it around? Amazin' Avenue: The 2009 Mets were long on injuries and short on backup plans, and even some of those backup plans wound up getting hurt along the way. They probably weren't a playoff team even if we forgive the health problems, but they probably would have won 85 games or so and I doubt we'd be talking about how 2010 is "do or die" for the core (or whatever). For a team with one of the highest payrolls in the National League, the Mets have a lot of mediocre (or just risky) players at starting positions. First base (Daniel Murphy, for now) and second base (Luis Castillo) are iffy, and the upside in right field (Jeff Francoeur) and at catcher (Henry Blanco/Rod Barajas) is probably league average production.
In the rotation, Johan Santana missed the end of last season after having bone chips removed from his throwing elbow. Mike Pelfrey had a tough luck season last year, and while I'm bullish on his future he's no sure thing. The final three spots are even more tenuous, with John Maine and Oliver Perez big question marks and the fifth spot up for grabs in spring training.
TNB: I haven't been to the new stadium yet, what do you think of it?
When we last left him, Bryce Harper was batting .356/.451/.712 with four homers and 42 total bases through 16 games. Since then the 17-year-old super prospect has picked up 17 more total bases, including two home runs, in just four games. Harper is now batting a team-leading .408/.500/.831 with six homers and 20 RBI in a total of 20 games.
Harper seems to be picking up steam as his season reaches its halfway point. The slugging catcher has gone seven for his last eight, with two doubles and two homers in that frame.
Bryce Harper with a great at bat
Versatility
While Harper is known mostly as a catcher, he is an outstanding athlete with the ability to play almost anywhere on the field. This is an important note for the Nationals to consider when drafting him. This is for two reasons, first the Nationals have prospects in Jesus Flores and Derek Norris at the catching position already, and second, catchers have shorter careers than everyone else. Harper is no one-trick pony though, so far this season he has appeared at catcher in 13 games, third base in six games, centerfield in five games, and right field in one. That's at the age of 17, in college. Think about that one for a minute.
"Arm Action: I don't like it. He starts his arm action with a pendulum swing, but has a bad "grab" as he tenses up his wrist and takes his elbow well beyond his acromial line in an attempt to "load" his scapula in a forced manner. He actually reminds me a lot of Mark Prior (gasp!)."
If you don't believe in mechanical analysis, we can also go to the statistics. I wont go into a scientific study of the following claims, but I will do a couple of quick cases.
First, some claim that pitchers who share the mechanics of Strasburg, such as Mark Prior, really get injured because they are frail. The second claim is that pitchers such as Prior don't get injured because they have bad mechanics, or because they are frail, but because they were overworked early in their careers. Let's see how these claims hold up.
With the first claim we face the difficulty of defining what frail means. Here frail certainly cannot mean its dictionary definition because I do not think at 6'5, 225 anybody would consider Mark Prior frail--I doubt any Major League pitcher in his mid-20s would fit anyone's definition of frail. So perhaps it has something to do with the pitcher's bone structure, his make-up, or something intangible. At the very least it is not something easily defined, and thus has weak predictive ability.
That said, for the sake of argument, let's assume Mark Prior is frail and that frail means someone of a body type similar to Mark Prior. Mark Prior's long string of injuries first began after throwing 5,426 pitches in the Major Leagues. Dan Haren has never spent an extended stint on the DL despite throwing over 19,000 pithces in his career. Dan Haren, at 6'5, 215, is perhaps more frail than Mark Prior. So what can explain the difference between the two? Perhaps we have picked the wrong measurement of frailty or perhaps it is because Mark Prior faced a heavy workload in the beginning of his career while Haren did not. We now investigate the second claim.
Mark Prior's Major League career began when he was 21. By the time he was 23 he had thrown 5,426 pitches. Mark Buehrle's career began when he was 21. After being 23 for several months, Mark Buehrle had thrown over 6,000 pitches. Mark Prior career has been riddled with injuries. Buehrle has never been on the DL for an extended period of time. It seems that Prior's injuries cannot simply be explained by the fact that he was overworked when he was young. We have eliminated frailty as well. Could the answer possibly lie in Prior's mechanics?
As I have said, the above does not constitute a scientific study. You could argue I cherry-picked Haren and Buerhle since they are two especially durable pitchers. But even then, the explanations of frailty and being overworked do not explain these cases while the mechanical analysis does. (You could argue I cherry-picked Prior too. Again, though, the explanations fail.) All of this is not to say that some pitchers are not too frail to play in the Majors or that overworking young players is detrimental to their health. I am arguing, however, that mechanics can provide far better explanations for the injuries pitchers face.
So keep this in mind, Nats fans, when partaking in Strasburg-mania. Whether we rush him or not, Strasburg's mechanics point to an injury-riddled career. Let's hope he's not frail to boot.
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Ever since the Nationals brought up Ryan Zimmerman in 2005, the club has labeled the 25-year-old hot corner as the face of the franchise. While everybody dawning a Curly W may have dreamt of seeing him immediately rise to super-star status, Zimmerman trudged through three years of good but not great play that saw him suffer a few injuries and earned him his first big league contract. 
Defensively Zimmerman churned out his second stellar defensive season at third base. Long branded a future defensive gem in the mold of a Brooks Robinson, Zimmerman posted a career high UZR of 18.1 in 2009, good enough to lead National League infielders and earn his first gold glove. Those who watched the Nationals in 2009 saw that there was great room for improvement in his defensive game as well. Zimmerman struggled early on making several throwing errors and some other silly mistakes; if those get ironed out he could easily improve that already stellar UZR. 
In his second spring outing Stephen Strasburg pitched three innings of shutout baseball, striking out two while allowing two hits and walking one batter against the Cardinals this afternoon. Though the Cardinals played without stars Albert Pujols and Matt Holiday, Strasburg's performance was still impressive, throwing 28 of his 49 pitches for strikes and starting seven of the eleven batters he faced with first-pitch strikes. Unfortunately, the Nationals were unable to parlay Strasburg's strong start into a win. Tyler Clippard took the loss, surrendering five runs in one and one-third innings, and the Nationals fell to 0-10 on the spring. (
The Nationals made several more cuts friday, re-assigning catcher Devin Ivany and first baseman Josh Whitesell to minor-league camp this morning. 
The Washington Nationals are in search for a top-of-the-rotation starter to add before they enter the 2010 season asserted 
The Washington Nationals made their first round of cuts today, giving veteran pitchers Shawn Estes and Eddie Guardado their outright releases while demoting six players to minor league camp. 
Throughout the course of a season, there is always a handful of players like Mike Morse that become available on waivers (Morse in fact passed through waivers himself in April 2009). The Nationals had traded outfielder Ryan Langerhans, another replacement type outfielder, to the Mariners last season for Morse and during September of last season he batted .262/.311/.524 in 45 PA for the Nationals. That line gained Morse the attention of many D.C. fans and his line this spring has augmented that attention. The question is, though, what is Morse's value to the Nationals?
To continue our tour across the bloggosphere, we stopped to chat with Eric from one of the best Mets blogs on the internet, Amazin' Avenue. 
I am by no means an expert in this topic, but from some things 
Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics. 
The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.
The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site.. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.
The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account! 